MisfitDog3

I haven't posted much this Winter though been a member for a while. I must admit sudden changes in model output makes me reach for the 'caution pills'. From having a look at what the main models seem to be edging towards I can't help thinking we will be seeing the Atlantic influencing any cold spell slightly more than anything from the east. Fronts seem to be making more progress across the country in the current couple of days than forecast a few days ago. I suspect the 'train' will be hard to stop....

Some of the worst conditions I've seen for many years over the last 3 hours. The intensity of both the rain and wind is extraordinary. Gusts 75 to 80+ and even sprung some leaks due to horizontal rain.....not good!

For anyone playing Netweather 'forum bingo' this week has been great. I just need someone to post "I've always thought GEM is underrated" and I'm shouting 'House'......

It did occur to me over the weekend that at least the last 3 weeks are going to put a permanent end to the.... 'winters over'..... 'you never get any decent snowfall in March' and 'game over'...type postings that seem to occur every year from about mid-Jan onwards...... Which is something to be cheerful about!! BTW, I suspect the Atlantic is gonna push in faster and further than the models are projecting for the end of the week.....

I know it sounds a bit obvious but in a situation conducive to shower formation the strength of the March sun is really going to throw a large element of unpredictability into the mix! What the models show now and what actually shows up on the day could be VERY different. I wouldn't give the snow forecast charts the time of day at the moment...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Well looking at the ensbl's for my neck of the woods, that's looking like a pretty good spread of options for next week. Some staying mild, other going way cold and even the odd one warming it all up....

Hmmmm...all this talk of Easterlies! No, no, no. We know what will happen. Is there no learning process on here? Given the spread of options on the models this morning I'm not even going with a cold spell for later next week yet.

Sometimes you don't need to see the models to make a judgement on the level of exciting output? Nothing since 14.11? Hmmmm...I suspect there is no prospect of the mother of all eaterlies in the imminent future then??! LOL! then again....i've seen worse prospects...

I quite like what I see in the forecasts for early Feb! It at least gives us 'potential'. I think the lack of enthusiasm boils down to the several factors: i) people like certainty, in terms of signals so strong that they should deliver something interesting, changing synoptics worry people, ii) the 'extreme' events which we've had in recent years seem to have dampened any excitement for what may be transistory or less severe cold spells (i.e. we've been spoilt a bit!) and finally iii) there is a bit of an obsession with weather from the east to the detriment of all other directions! There is a lot to be pleased with (for cold fans) in the current model runs. Just don't live for the locked in cold spells or you'll live being disappointed for 90% of the time....

I don't know! The longer I look at the Fax charts the more my past experience of these sorts of events tells me that the snowfall south of the M4 is at serious risk of being toned down at the 11th hour. I don't like the proximity of the 528 line or the anticipated angle of the front. It just looks v. marginal and southern counties seem to have a tendency to come out on the wrong side of any odds on these type of west to east events. Probably just my cynical middle age speaking....

I think block holding is, marginally, favoured at the moment. It wouldn't take much to stack the weighting into Atlantic Breakthrough BUT I'm not convinced any AB would last very long and the block would re-establish itself. It's all very interesting and a few grumpy heads on here should chiiiilllllll! It's not 10 degrees and raining....so it's at least 4 to 5 days of something much colder and potentially something very special!

I think we are just going to have to get our heads around that there are going to be changes coming and going in mid-FI and full on FI which don't come to pass. It reminds me of my weather station when there is a large High Pressure in place. Marginal changes in pressure and short run trends as the High moves around foxes it into forecasting imminent changes asthough a Low were approaching. The High moves again and the pressure pattern reverts and so on! The next week is going to be fascinating. Personally I really think the horizon on reliable forecasting is the shortest it's been for a very long time. Perhaps as low as 72 hours.

So the ECM v GFS stand off goes on and on. I seem to recall the ECM has more form on 11th hour stand downs then the GFS? As many have speculated before the truth is probably somewhere between the two. This may make for something more interesting or if we're really unlucky we'll end up with some slushy horrible polar maritime nonsense that deliver little but is still cold! Lets see what the next couple of model runs deliver! I don't think we've seen the end of this roller coaster by a long chalk....

Very good charts but greatest evidence something is happening is that 9.55pm Weatherview on BBC News bottled it on the Friday....obviously weekend is causing them to think?

Look at the beautiful at 240?!?! Hmmm...FI is FI whatever it shows.

the Met office outlook is nothing to be concerned about. For one, it's the end of the period so halfway FI and secondly the word 'may' is pretty prominent...much more interesting is that they are going for initial cold and we all know how difficult snowfall is to forecast so they are hardly going to make any reference to an 'event' or 'events' at this stage..... No sweat.

Continuing with the Model thread Winter themed Bingo: Just nailed 'Scandi High' and 'Extreme Caution' today.... The set up seems to be more convincing then the December debacle...in that there are more building blocks in place. I suspect we'll see a clear and dry cold picture as High Pressure builds from the east, rather than widespread snow...but possibly some very low night time temps.

Got wellies! The mud is beyond wellie stage on all fronts!

I think those looking for cold will have to snatch the odd day or two here and there for the time being. The conveyor belt rolls on and those meaty Lows aren't going to stop rolling across the Atlantic any time soon....January may deliver something different, which for the benefit of walking the dog I can only hope for. There's only so much mud my trousers can take.

I think the chopping and changing is taking it's toll! Interesting output again this morning but the strength of the Atlantic continues to give me concerns. I can't see the material to bring about a major change at the moment. I would normally say the next 48 hours will determine where we are going next week but I just don't see any settling down in the models just at the moment.

Excellent stuff at the moment! If you don't like what you're seeing outside 96 hours....don't worry! All you have to do is wait for 12 hours and you're presented with a radically different solution. If you don't like that one...well don't worry...because there's another one coming along very soon! From my own angle, the Atlantic looks like it's going to take some serious stopping before early Jan! There may be a colder interlude but I just don't see the framework for anything sustained to hang around on the cold front. Any Low heading in from the Atlantic is going to have its wicked way for the time being.....

Hmmmm...counting the number of Low Pressure systems forecast to be crashing in over the UK from now until Xmas on GFS is rather alarming. Flooding will be a major talking point if that even remotely comes off. Saying that, I still reckon most models like a good zonal outlook as a holding point, so just transfix on that until any signs crop up in the medium term to change the signals. Running home to mama... Nothing is set in stone for Xmas at this stage. In fact I rather suspect we'll get something cold and settled after a stormy 10 days or so.

Been following closely for the last couple of weeks but have resisted commenting until now. 'nick sussex' comment "models are all over the place" seems to have nicely captured the entire roller coaster ride. From what I have seen over the last few days, there is little cause for the huge disappointment from coldies...or some of the forecasts of 'coldmageddon' that seem to have been put out there by others. There is just so much of a lack of consistent signals at the moment.....and the Atlantic does not want to be shut down! All very interesting model watching anyway.

Hmmm....sorry had to laugh as 'polar low' was rolled out of the silo! Heads down for Winter Bingo...'polar low' tick! Anyway, next week looks like one of those weeks where events could change in a very short space of time. A relatively minor shift in the track of a Low is going to make a lot of difference in terms of the arrival of the mid week cold front or potency (particularly further north) of what is produced in terms of precipitation. What I find most interesting is that none of the major models are in a hurry to introduce a return to milder themes in the next fortnight or so. Unusual that! Also, I wouldn't want to be taking a half term break in the western mediterranean next week! Gonna be some disappointed people unfortunately!

yeah, what is that about? Weirdest radar returns!