MisfitDog3

ECM has an interesting little feature rolling up the channel in a weeks time! Borderline FI I know but worth keeping an eye on if you are based on the south coast or SE of England.

Wasps in low numbers here are well! However, apples trees have large numbers of apples. What is puzzling me is what has happened to the bracken round here. It's died en-masse. Looks like it usually does in November not in late August! Very odd.

Where do people think we're heading into next week? There seems to be some signs of at least two models wanting to drag in a High from the Atlantic for a week or so but not a very warm one from some of the temperature forecasts. Any thoughts?

Interesting variations between some of the lightning detectors available. If you look at the Meteorlogica site half the south and south east seems to be beset by storms but not showing on other sites. I suspect we'll stay relatively out of the main risk area?

SE corner looks to remain fairly windy into mid-week...well on at least a few of the models!

Hmmm...I'm not convinced by the Low track coming close to southern England. There are some odd little anomalies in terms of development and track which make me very suspicious at this time...I certainly wouldn't trust any output plus 84 hours at the moment, not with some of the diverse outcomes on offer. Very low confidence.

@Frosty...I think you answered your own question there! Anything remotely cold looking is out there in FI and even then looks fairly halfhearted! Saying that, it is surprising quite how dependent on the promise of colder weather this particular thread is for any serious activity.

Oh dear! Mild spike then.....well something colder or much colder. Seems to be at least some interesting consistency on the cold FI outlook which is unusual this winter/spring. Will watch with interest over the next 72 hours and then see what the model runs are showing...and then also have a think if I switch tyres back to the norm!

It's been a good thread but I do wonder if it's in the right place? Doesn't seem a logical category to me.

And what on earth is happening with FAX plus 84 hours...some very off jumps and an evolutionary speed of a fleeing zebra....

I presume the 20cm's is from a stalled front scenario. From the various snowfall projections over the last 12 hours, plus evidence of the block doing its thing, you can see that occurring quite easily! Won't know who is going to get mullered by this until the event is practically on top of us I suppose. The MO don't usually stick their neck out unless they see something pretty definite.

"Certainly as you suggest not clear cut on cold or milder towards day 10." ...to be honest I don't think there is any clear cut from the weekend. I don't buy into the ECMRWF evolution from 96 to 120 hrs because the position of the High to the west just looks wrong..particularly at this time of year. Mind you I'm hardly enamoured by the middle term GFS projection either! We will see some major changes again on several models as we go towards Friday. At the moment it looks like a change signal is in the early evolutionary stage which is throwing out some odd pressure placements on a few of the models. That doesn't necessairily indicate mild weather either...

The shift is astonishing...yes I know it's only one run but even looking at a like with like, I've rarely seen such a shift in such a short time, particualarly from GFS. It's a worry though because it just screams 'instability' in any reliable output to take forward, especially when it starts moving phantom Low Pressures around (see current English Channel solution!!). I've seen that before and it's not a vote of confidence.... The next 24 hours are going to be the most important of the last two weeks to decide where we go in the next fortnight.

basically, these changes just show the potential for a substantial change at fairly short notice! Nothing is set beyond Sunday....fairly extraordinary but apparently true...

But we don't know if the gfs is going to be 'totally hopeless' yet? It may turn out to be right on the button, time will tell! I am also very puzzled as to why later time frames of 180 hours and 240 hours etc are any more likely to be right when there's consistent cold on the runs then other outcomes? FI is FI no matter what is being thrown out. Personally, yes cold seems the more likely outcome from looking through the various models BUT to be dismissing a major model because it's coming out with something different is a very dangerous game imo....

Oh Lordy! First time I've actually seen some material you can hang your hat on with regard to the cold! Very, very interesting overnight developments which actually seem to nail down a few loose ends. Perhaps I will go and get one of those reduced price snow shovels from Sainsburys before the word gets out....

FI is FI no matter if it's showing cold or warmth. I don't see any deep cold in a reliable time frame. I see cooling but nothing out of the ordinary...as others have said, anything dramatic is always on the horizon!

Nice run but it's just one run! The ups and downs on here are mad. We'll probably see a different evolution in 6 hours and so on. From my own perspective I think it will get cooler but nothing beyond what you see in mid Jan in many years and I don't see a long term change either. Cooler for a week? Nice enough but the Atlantic is just on a sabbatical.

Even with the variation in severity, several models keep returning to a change of some sort in mid-month. That suggests that something is in the brew, as it were! It is, at least, quite interesting to watch even if the control line is rapidly resembling the tail of an over anxious dog....

and if you look at the visible satellite picture you can clearly see a defined 'eye'.....

yep, the cold front is just passing us. Knocked over 3 degrees off the temp in the last 15 mins....

GFS 129 to 132 hours projection would cause some chin stroking amongst those based near North Sea coasts I reckon! Long way out obviously. GFS seems to be developing some very odd pressures system tracks in the last couple of runs. Transient Highs I can go with but some of the Lows seems to be appearing and then disappearing with no rhyme or reason. Never a good sign of confidences in my view.

Interesting developments and I particularly like the far end of the gfs run though as likely to come off as me winning the lottery before the end of 2011! With an upper atmosphere warming event on the cards the next few days are going to produce some interesting FI runs I suspect....just before my wife's Xmas lunch gives me some interesting runs...(boom boom!)

The GFS doesn't half like it's storms at the moment doesn't it?!! The Low generating at 150 hours+ is dwarfed by the monster towards the end of the run on 320 hours onwards!! At least the former one is reasonably believable..the latter looks to embrace everything from south of the Canaries to northern Greenland! Hmmmm...doesn't give me confidence.

Very interesting how much everything can change in 24 hours! Short term and long term. Fridays low is pin a tail on a donkey time...me? I reckon it's going straight through the midlands. Uh-oh on the southern flanks. Strangely no talk of anything being 'nailed on' this morning? ;-)