MisfitDog3

From looking at the fax charts for the next 48 hours, I'd be steering well clear of the M6 north of Birmingham from Thursday evening onwards! Post Low, that entire seaboard inland looks like it's going to be whitewashed and visibility is going to be dire. Worrying windchill as well. If you are driving up that direction in the early hours of Friday once the Low has moved to the East, take a lot of warm clothes!!

On the various ensembles there is a light blue line on a much colder trajectory than the others. Which model is that please?

Interesting situation developing for the weekend! I'm not surprised the media forecasts aren't going beyond Thurs/Fri at the moment. Just out of interest, and with particular reference to todays events, are there any areas on the website which specifically deal/discussion of effects as cold fronts move through? I love the drama of a good cold front, temp drop, strong winds etc.

Hmmm...some interesting projections on the aforementioned 'Low' development for mid week next week! Personally I think it's going to track much further north or turn out to be a false alarm. I suspect the High may stick around slightly more than we see at present.

He was often an interesting read and some of his forecasts were spot on. In recent months the long term forecasts seem to become increasingly maginalised as his theories on climate change and ding-dongs with other meterological societies seemed to come more and more to the fore! His writing style could be very odd at times as well with some most peculiar uses of English.

thtat article is the essence of 'frontier gibberish'! As far as I understand it, substantial changes to the NAD takes decades if not centuries.

I seem to be locked into an 'opposites' position with a few on here at the moment. The evolution on the model front in the last 24 to 26 hours suggests to me that a change to milder conditions seems as far away as ever for the time being (particularly for south/south east). Mind you I was still stupid enough to go out without a coat this morning! Doh!

Hmmmm...how many fronts can you get on a weather chart?!! Interesting stuff for the end of the week. Where is the front line going to be for the cold V warm air confrontation? Book your seats now!

OK, the model runs towards the end of the week and the weekend are enough to actually get me out of my recent slumber down here on the Surrey/Hants border. There is only so much cold rain that the excitement can take..... Spring certainly seems to be on hold for the time being and the trend (excluding the next few days) suggest this Winter may yet have a sting in it's tail for some of us down sarf!

22 hours of rain in Farnham which only abated at about 3.00am! Temp then dropped to 0.5C so some ice around but could have been a lot worse! The ice risk is going to be around for a few days though given the amount of standing water.

Well all marginal stuff for snow outside N Scotland still. Not quite sure what to make of the model output today. I don't like some of the low pressure system locations showing up and we have no real believable evolution as to how some of the daily projections have developed. Always a warning sign something ain't right. However, something is emerging in terms of a consensus but it's a bit like peering into the fog with just glimpses of something every now and then! As for today, I'm personally quite glad this front is not causing a snow issue down here in the south as we have had some substantial rainfall totals now it's decided to get stuck and slide laterally. We'd be a foot and a half under by now....

"This is an odd looking chart with the UK surrounded by LP systems" Yes, those sorts of nonsense often get thrown up on the borders of FI! Absolute tosh of course. My golden rule over these sorts of things is "if it looks wrong it almost certainly is wrong....."

are you chaps talking about Tues/Wed this week? I've just noticed the MO have lifted the warning for snow for the next couple of days from the SE sector. Probably guarantees a snow event for southern counties will occur now! The models are a right mess to my eye. Lttle 'Lows' bubbling up all over the place right into next week which don't look plausible at all.

Hmmmmm...very interesting set up for Tuesday through to Wednesday onwards starting to show up on the models. Who'd be a forecaster having to call that one?! I do have to laugh at the number of times I see postings that seem to assume as as soon as we approach Valentines day the potential for sustained very cold weather has gone. Can memories really be that short? It was only 3 years ago we had an extended cold spell well into March! It's a very interesting 10 days coming up.

Hang on a mo, you're talking in the past about something in the future which doesn't even exist yet! Let us see how this rolls on across the models during the next 36 hours or so. Track is all important!

"this is more likely towards the end of next week into next weekend." That seems to have been a reoccurring theme for those waiting for a snow event from this particular cold spell (and away from Kent of course!). Always just over the metaphorical horizon!

is this the sort of set up we could risk getting 'freezing rain' out of, or is it all just too mobile and mixed up for that?

Yes, some VERY interesting developments on this mornings runs. It's also interesting that I have heard 3 different forecasters put their necks on the line this morning and go for widespread and 'disruptive' snow next week. Why would they do that if it was rerally that marginal?

though I should say I suspect the cold may re-load rather than a return of the Atlantic!

interesting charts this morning. Because of the marginal nature of snow events (especially in the south) I suspect a lot of people are keeping their views to themselves until the weekend. There is a lot of flux in the medium to long term and we could even see a straight return to Atlantic SW's out of this set up.

"Chasing cold in FI is mad, if we cannot get any cold in the reliable nailded first. IMBY this week has been fine dry and sunny so far with temps just below average, feels like spring in the sunshine....out of the wind mind you." I agree with the first statement wholeheartedly! Given the recent experience with the models (and many times in the past) can we stop trying to hang our hats on forecasts being thrown up for next week. It's very unlikely to be accurate so comment is fine on FI model runs but why let it depress or excite yourself at the stage out? Now something due to occur 72 hours ahead or so is a different kettle of fish.. As for my take on events past the weekend, I don't think the cold is in a hurry to go anywhere. I don't feel the cold being shoved into the mid-Atlantic looks sustainable as an output based on previous experience. What exactly we are going to see is anyones guess really.... As for tonight. I think areas further west of Kent are going to get more snow than currently forecast looking at the North Sea radar and wind direction. As for it feeling like Spring?! Have you been outside? Blinkin' perishing!

Not sure about next week and personally think it's way too early to say anything specific even on next weekend just yet. Saying that, I reckon the snow at the end of the week looks like it may be disruptive a lot further west than just Kent which the Met Office was still focusing on this morning from a study of the charts.

maybe but the ECM would give some pretty low night temps elsewhere! Record breakers?

which model has broken ranks on the ensemble out of interest?! The thin red line indeed!

Well the models are suggesting a scenario much more appealing than rain, wind and all that stuff but they also say to me cold nights, cool/cold days with some sunshine. Nice enough but not particularly exciting. Probably more to come but each consecutive runs seem to be moderating any extreme temps.