Cuban Zebra
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m impressed with how certain people seem to be of one outcome over another at the minute! Others have posted how the wild swings suggest all models are struggling with current modelling and I reckon it’s right, it appears that we are on the cusp of something epic and the next few days will show exactly how epic!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I admire the positivity and as the GFS evolves you start to think the PV is starting to shift eastwards but then bang! It snaps back and the “benign crud” continues!’ If it continues in its size and position we’re screwed for any easterly!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 384 hours of nothing!! -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Whatever the GFS 12Z has had, I’ll have a bit too!!! -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think people need to chill out! This reacting to each run as gospel is pretty tiresome and bound to ensure you end up in some kind of institution!! Things are so unstable and changing so fast and frequently, calling anything is fraught with danger! -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If that’s keeping it simple I’d hate to see complicated!!! -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Given how much variation at the minute they won’t call it yet. The latest update has dropped it cold though, with a few random snow showers thrown in!! Definite upgrade!! -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don’t say it!!! -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just out of interest given the outlook for Europe so far this winter, where exactly is cold at the minute?? -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I tend to agree with you on that but i wouldn’t be too surprised to something very cold start to appear in the medium range and change quickly!! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Cuban Zebra replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m pretty sure we all agree that it’s currently bonkers, nothing is fixed past 48-72 hours and how anyone can call anything for Christmas Day and after is beyond me!! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think we all need to chill out and remember we are just over 2 weeks into meteorological winter with 3 months left! Most of us have had more snow and cold than all of last winter already with a global set up that could potentially deliver much more!! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Southward corrections incoming I think the cold will win out and a few will be left with egg on their face. Or I will!! It’s a tough call with FI being so close! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The mild breakdown is beginning to show signs of being a “blink and miss it affair”!! Then back to cold in time for Christmas, we were talking entirely the opposite last year! I think we’re not far from something epic!! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I tried, I said stay away till it’s showing at t+48, you’ll only get hurt again! But some of the charts! Oh my word! F73977C3-53AC-4FF4-BD1B-1D72D846809E.webp -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The models have been hinting at this for a few days now. A near total shift of the PV, this upcoming stormy period may be what smashes this winter open before it’s too late. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s 3 runs now where the PV seems to finally releasing it’s icy grip on the US and Canada! Is it too late? I don’t think so for some snow at the end of Feb beginning of March! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For what it’s worth I think the models are starting to pick up in a few tentative signals of the raging PV moving/ splitting up and the relentless train of high pressures losing their grip! In a day or 2 the eye candy charts will appear and we’ll all be up that garden path again! -
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
As I sit here on the 30th Jan I wonder where the last month has gone, the total lack of any cold weather of note and the lack of anything cold now out till the last 3rd of February, the way this pattern has just rinsed and repeated is simply staggering! As the wise Bill Foggitt used to say “ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter nowt but slush and muck”!!!! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve tried to be optimistic but that’s now gone! I have an awful feeling we’ll be crying out for charts like this in the summer!! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You can start to see changes appear in the longer term. As most people I’m not an expert but I think there are enough hints that appear then drop and then reappear run to run!! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If we were to name this thread, The Hunt for settled and snowless, we’d be feet deep within days!!! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is there a world record for a high pressure being in the same place? Asking for a friend! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Cuban Zebra replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unbelievable!! There are some on here that are going to wind up in an early grave! I was told a long time ago to compare runs to runs, ie. 12z to 12z etc.. that way you don’t get drawn into madness every 6 hours comparing runs!! Wait till we’ve seen tomorrow’s 6z and 12z before writing the winter off!!