O'Maille80
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Posts posted by O'Maille80
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Not looking good now. I recall last year ECM was playing catch up to GFS and that appears to be the case again. Could be wrong but have to be realistic now.
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Big ECM coming up. That shows similar to UKMO we are in a decent position. Can't ask for more than that coming into Christmas week.
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Looking like next week is going to go down to the wire, no clean evolution seems to be on the table that's for sure. Further North you are the better obv just like last year but with a bit more cold in place maybe more Southern areas are still in the game too.
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Serious ECM 12z for Connaught and Ulster this evening. A white Christmas to put it mildly if that comes off.
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10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
it was yes for longevity.the 6z was better early on
Not really any better for my part of the world it wasn't plus the cold pool went deep into continental Europe on the 0z locking all of us in cold weather nearly up to the New Year. The 6z has those dreaded Iberian heights that ruined last winter back after a few cold days.
Anyway it's only 1 option on the table and it's so different from the 0z that it looks like it will be for the bin.
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2 days of cold and then it ends? The 0z was a better run surely?
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2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
i personally didnt think the UKMO was too bad.
I'm just going by what the experts are saying. I thought it looked ok when I first saw it but I can't read the maps like the more experienced posters and if they say it was bad I will always bow to their superior knowledge.
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2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
the gfs is still a very cold run though?
It would be wrong to call that a bad run I suppose but ICON, GEM and more importantly UKMO were not good.
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Bad run after bad run this morning it has to be said. Just when it looked like things were going our way. Hopefully just a few rogue runs grouped together but that might be wishful thinking.
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Going to be ups and downs. Sunday night will be a key night imo, hopefully it won't go completely tits up before then.
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ECM 0z is too good to be true. Or is it?
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Ecm was first to show storm Barra few weeks back. Would be silly to dismiss it just because it's not showing what we want. Fingers crossed we start seeing some better runs from both it and the GFS soon.
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Just now, CreweCold said:I'm not ruling anything out. All I've done is give the weight of my opinion on probabilities.
Big difference.
Problem is you were nowhere to be seen after the 12z's but the moment there is one bad run you give it all credence in the world?
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
The 06z ec op has the low a little further west at T90 with a slightly less cold wrap around of air and uppers as a consequence
Small variance
Gfs you mean?
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So teasing here. Snow gets going, barely whitens the ground and then stops. Story of my winter. 2021- The year it nearly snowed.
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Someone on boards.ie weather section who's been wrecking everyone's heads for the last month just posted he's being b***hed about on netweather.
I'm sure he's an alright lad but just needs to be not so IMBY focused.
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Met Eireann woman on RTE said Thursday snow could be widespread and that cold could still be around the weekend giving further risk of snow for Eastern and Northern areas.
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Light snow shower just started here. Not going to last long going by the radar.
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24 minutes ago, DOdo said:
Tuesday and Thursday Two days to look out for, Early warning for Heavy Snow fall
Where did you see this?
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That GEM run is beautifully bonkers.
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3 hours ago, Summer Snow said:
Yes based on current charts it breaks down quickly to rain around Thursday .....however these lows could slide in to the block closer to the time and give us a nice blizzard (8 days away so lots of chopping and changing to come)....hopefully plenty of snow between Sunday and Wednesday before that.....charts are all over the the place for later next week. UKMO is very different to ECM for example...0z GFS kept the cold going in to the following week with sliders whereas latest run quickly breaks down the cold spell next week.....We will have a better idea come Saturday or Sunday how any breakdown occurs and whether it is snowy or a brief snow to rain event
The Met Eireann long range isn't without further promise later into February into early March either.
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 02 FEBRUARY 2021
Week 1 (Friday 05 February to Thursday 11 February)
A strong signal for low pressure dominant to the south and high pressure to the north, meaning Ireland will lie in a mainly easterly airflow. This will lead to below average temperatures for the week. Precipitation will likely be well below average for much of the country though showery conditions will feed into northeastern and eastern coastal counties, with above average precipitations amounts there. With the strong easterly flow, wind-chill will be a big factor for this week, with the potential for winds to impact eastern coasts. Some wintry precipitation is likely, especially in the north and east. Widespread frosts at night, with hazardous conditions where ice forms.
Week 2 (Friday 12 February to Thursday 18 February)
Low pressure in mid-Atlantic will likely extend its influence over Ireland with a mainly southwesterly airflow. This will mark a change from the previous week with temperatures recovering to more normal levels. Precipitation levels will increase to above normal for much of the country. Wind and rainfall are the main potential hazards in this setup.
Week 3 (Friday 19 February to Thursday 25 February)
High pressure to the north looks set to be the dominate feature for the week. This would lead to mainly settled conditions, much drier than average with temperatures around normal.There is a risk of some frosty nights with calm conditions. Mist and fog are possible hazards.
Week 4 (Friday 26 February to Thursday 04 March)
The high pressure is indicated to decline northwards, leading to a northeasterly airflow developing over Ireland. This would likely lead to colder than average temperatures but still predominately drier than average for much of the country with perhaps showers feeding into the northeast and east. Possible hazards are wintry flurries in the northeast and east, frosty nights for much of the country.
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56 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
It will be hard watching parts of Scotland and England get mullered as we feed off scraps.
I don't look at it that way. Would be happy with some decent snowfall with the possibility of a top up. We're never going to do as well as parts of Britain.
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Sunday: Sunday is looking like a very cold and breezy day with bright spells and some showers, the showers primarily affecting north Ulster and east Leinster, with some turning wintry in nature. Maximum temperatures of 1 to 5 degrees Celsius but feeling colder due to the added wind-chill factor in brisk northeast winds. Frost and ice will develop widely on Sunday night with scattered snow showers in eastern counties. Minimum temperatures of -3 to +1 degrees Celsius in fresh northeast winds.
Next week: Current indications suggest it will stay very cold into next week with widespread frost and ice. Falls of sleet and snow are expected, especially in Leinster, with significant accumulations possible.Loving the Met Eireann update. Very rare they talk of snow this far out.
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1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:
Not sure we can just discard GFS even if the other models are showing something different !
Unfortunately we can't. Not with ECM being a step behind it all winter. Still think that the a cold spell is a decent fave with UKMO, ECM and GEM going that way at the moment. We'll know soon enough, probably tomorrow evening.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I like this dudes historical vids. Seen a few of them last year when during lockdown