[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

The ECM has been playing catch up all winter. This doesn't look promising.

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Very little changed this morning. Chance is still there for the SSW influence to bring down some Artic air to the U.K. but it’s still to far out beyond day 7-8 to have to much confidence in the final outcome. Ensembles still with lots of scatter, as you’d expect at that range. 

Still makes for great model watching  

 

A consistent pattern amongst the major models has emerged. I'd call that positive change. Does it mean we are home and dry? No, far from it as it's too far out as you say and other systems could pop up and spoil it, Still I disagree that nothing has changed.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Insane GFS para this morning. Never seen such virtual snow in all my life. Whole island would be buried.

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

10/10 output this morning. An exciting week of model watching awaits.

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

The GFS parallel has us buried in FI.

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Would have liked to see a few hours more on that icon run. Looked like it was evolving with some promise.

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

23 minutes ago, LoisE said:

Could you please explain what "upgrade" means on the 18z GEFZ weather model compared to the earlier version? Is it using new technology or something? Thank you. 

Same model. He is just referring to fact that the amplification up to Greenland looks better in the  18z gefs run than it did in the 12z run.(hence upgrade). 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Seems to be a waiting game. I'm of the opinion that midweek next week is when we will see where we're going for the final third of January. Anything showing consistently before then would surprise me.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Had some snow here since half 4. Very light snow mainly but got a bit heavier about half an hour ago. All the footpaths and roofs have a nice coating. Was good to see.

Pity the precipitation wasn't heavier this morning because we had the ideal conditions here in Kildare.

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To have any confidence at all in the ECM op, we certainly need the EPS mean to resemble it a lot more than the GEFS mean does, thats a fact.

Mean charts are overrated. 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Met Eireann mentioning rain turning to snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Hopefully some of us get lucky with that.

 

Wednesday will continue very cold with sunny spells and with frost and ice clearing slowly, but lingering in some areas. Highest temperatures of just 1 to 4 degrees generally, in a light northwest breeze, and remaining below freezing in some midland and western areas throughout the day. Cloud will increase in the northwest later. During the evening rain will develop in the northwest and will spread southeastwards throughout Wednesday night, falling as sleet or snow in some areas. Lowest temperatures of -2 to +2 degrees with frost and icy patches in many areas.

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Whatever way you look at it those runs were bad news for us today.Let's hope things look better in a week/10 days time

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

24 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Stop it GEM❄?❄? I would love 95% of Europe to be snow covered by the 2nd week of January of course 

Little old Ireland getting jaffa cakesed on on as usual.

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

They have been fairly consistent in this respect. Uppers have always been shown to be around -4 to -6c.

I think we are just in a bit of a holding pattern now - chilly and mainly dry. 

Thanks, but thats incredibly frustrating imo. It seems like we're chasing something that stays the exact same distance away the whole time.

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Why do the charts constantly alternate between decent uppers to not, day by day. Very annoying.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

Crazy the way the best uppers( lowest) seem to alternate between Ireland and the UK day by day on the latest ECM. Even then they're nothing to write home about.

Not convinced there will be enough cold pooling taking place to give low land snow, like some suggest.

I want anything but cold rain for a week. That's the worst case scenario for us all. Fingers crossed we all see some snowy weather in the next 4-10 days.

[Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas]

Prob a stupid question but why if these charts are so good does it not show much snow when you click on the precipitation tab on meteociel?

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Miserable night. Cold and rain. Think I'd prefer it to be normal zonal weather than this.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Hopeful of seeing some snow tomorrow evening in my neck of the woods. Not expecting it to lay but would be nice to see a shower. Between 5 and 7 is looking the most likely.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Still falling heavily outside. A covering on footpaths now. 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Not sure why I'm multi qouting.

 

Nice to see first snowfall so early.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

12 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

 

Sticking and quite heavy now.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

After this stormy weather this week it's time to look for improving warmer Spring weather. 

Winter was a disappointment but at least I saw some heavy snow last Sunday and 2 inches lying on the ground, that was a nice surprise and let's face it that is about the average for most on this little island of ours.

[Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins]

Nature has it's own vibe. Plenty of snow to come, delayed winter imo.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

2 inches lying on the ground. Hasn't stopped for over 3 hours and heavy too.