[Cold hunt - models and chat]

These threads have been dead since they split them. Hard to follow anything.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Met Eireann has issued a national yellow warning for snow and ice.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

We knew a few days ago that we would have to look in the 10 plus day period again for any significant cold. No point complaining about it, let's hope we can hit the jackpot this time. Would still be early February, that is an ideal scenario compared to most years. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

This is why I don't understand the point of watching every model run. One bad run and people completely discount the previous 20? It's senseless.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Don't get too excited yet, it could still all go wrong!

Well aware of that, I like to see the potential though, keeps the hopes up. It might turn out completely different and we end up getting snow in different set ups or not at all but it's looking like we will have to be unlucky not to get a bit of the action in the next 2/3 weeks.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Yes. First snow arriving days 3/4 then mainly dry and cold with further snow perhaps on days 8 and thereafter. 

This can and probably will change though!

Thanks for the reply, lets hope we all get a good plastering. Unbelievable potential going forward and earlier than last year too.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 6z isn't bad at all. Still has the rain to snow event Monday night into Tuesday with a wintry looking Tuesday with sleet/snow showers from the North West. Then cold and mainly dry with a very good set up as it tries to push the Atlantic in from the South West, where the Atlantic meets the cold air already embedded means a snowiest for some.

Would I be right in saying that day 9/10 looks like it is a great run for Ireland, snow potential wise?

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Not interested in another year like 2012 or 2013 where Uk got buried and I was freezing into April but didn't see a snowflake. Disappointed with the snow potential in next 10 days tbh.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Have a feeling the North will do well out this cold spell. Hopefully we all do and the whole island is covered. Its good to have decent chance at this stage of winter. This time 2 days from now we all should have a clearer picture.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, Baltic Regions said:

Completely agree with this sensible statement. This is not how you phrased it though.

And……...

These comments are just inflammatory. Say something like the first quote. Its less defamatory to the hard working professionals who do their job to the best of their abilities.

 

This was two days ago!! Of note is the way you phrase things so no matter what happens you can either enjoy the high along with everyone or state how right you were in predicting the downgrade. You're quids in. This is not the only example.

 

A measured response to your lambasting of the SSW (where you provide no data to back it). Try it. It earns respect and helps the conversation to develop.

 

And just over the halfway mark? There are loads of worse winters in the past. Including ones were there has been no snow at all. 

 

Honestly Neiller, go and read this thread from page one. While some of your comments are quite positive you are a bit of a mood hoover. I have been part of this forum since the regional communities were established. Even Frosty didn't rip my knittin any where near as much as you do. Im not the only one who appears frustrated by you. Your negativity and unsubstantiated drivel has ruined this group for me. I find little pleasure in here anymore because its just the Neiller show interspersed with the respectable comments from knowledgeable members I and im certain, we all want to hear from. 

I appreciate this cant be pleasant to read and Im more than annoyed at myself for letting this get to me so much. I apologise in advance for any offence that no doubt will be taken. I hope you can read this in the manner it is intended and take some points on board.

Tomorrow is my 14th Anniversary of being in this community but due to how things have been lately I no longer feel able to be part of this community and so I will leave the forum and delete my profile. I will of course leave the profile up until midnight as I have no doubt you will want to come back at me. You are of course entitled to your views and you do like to air them.

Please think about how you handle yourself in this room and come across to others. I always took pride in here that we remained level headed regardless of what the output provided and often joked about the dummies being spat out of the pram. Your input is moving us down the same road. 

 

Too much for me. Better things to do with my time than wade through such drivel to find the nuggets of good knowledge.

 

Cheers folks but its Adios from me.

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Still frigid next sunday...

Frigid? Does that mean Feb91 won't be getting smashed with 4 inches? 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Good news with the models. Will we be seen more scenes like this throughout Ireland in the coming weeks.

 

 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_01/75EE3B09-B548-45E5-96E3-C872FD5E12C5.jpeg.f76326df999cc125ee8453efcbdc5495.jpeg

Bit of fun but some places would be buried if this came off, unfortunately not me.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

13 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Omg that is one of the largest differences between 240hr runs I've ever seen. Suspect ecm is gonna have egg on the face. When there is cross-section model disagreement. Always pick the less favourable solution - it's almost always right

Surely should go with what the majority of models go for? Seems counter intuitive to go for the odd one out?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO 144-

GEFS mean 144-

Are those not for 6 day away? I thought it wasn't expected to get cold enough for snow until the 23rd. Next Wednesday.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Would be good to get the snow/cold in a month earlier than last year. I remember last year it  snowed all night on the first night the beast arrived and we had 6 inches lying outside, during the morning it was still snowing heavily but was not building up. Must have got nearly two foot of snow during the whole cold spell but it never built up as it would have a month earlier.

20 miles up the road was a different story, they got smashed despite this with probably the heaviest snow build ups at low levels the whole island had seen in some time.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS look a stonker !!

Are we seeing a bit of momentum building?

Snowmentum. Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Never understand why so many get deflated by every chart that is not to their wishes. Surely the main take away from the last few days is a positive one for cold lovers trending towards a colder to cold last third of the month. That's 11 days away, no need for every chart to be a ramp from now to then just as long as it comes together in the end. 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Hi all! Long time lurker (well since last year's BFTE). Let's hope we get to see plenty of white stuff in the following months and everywhere in Ireland gets a good burying. Things certainly look like they're beginning to trend colder towards the final third of the month but obviously no guarantees this far out. I am optimistic though so fingers crossed.