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Vikos

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Posts posted by Vikos

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well there’s the scandi high i was on about an hour or so ago, great run this, and it shouldn’t just be discounted because its the 18z, this is exactly the evolution we should expect now given the SSW and MJO resurgence into phase 7.  It won’t go away on the 0z’s.  

    BC5CE12A-407D-48C3-A5DA-482A1A70D63D.thumb.png.7b66059ae8b6fbcf86f6763cbe480f62.png

    Save this chart, if it becomes real, I will send you 10 Pounds via PayPal for your next pints (when pubs open up again)

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    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vikos

    16 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    No they aren’t smaller details as Nick S mentions domino effects from smaller changes. There’s nothing wrong with Canada going very cold it’s very normal for them when part of polar vortex visits them, we don’t see same as there’s big modification from sea. There’s satisfactory cold to NE as long as E Conus doesn’t go into freezer it’s not a concern. You’re worrying over nothing. 

    Am I? My random (collected) worries...

    A66AD5F2-CC58-4CAF-B8A8-91F3CF6DB752.png

    DC59FBAF-99FE-4011-B122-8232324CDFC5.png

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    B78C4663-0189-4470-AF6B-719074EF7AE9.png

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vikos

    32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    One major detail you’re missing out there’s a high pressure cell on latest 12Z moving north up east coast that would block the very cold air from spilling out.

    For me those are "smaller details" in an overall pattern of moving the cold into the west. As we are in a forecast, locations of H and L will change a lot, also travelling routes of those. By now, the overall pattern is (I repeat myself) the transition of the cold block east to west. This pattern is also seen on the GFSop, GEM, JMA and even ICON

    00z +12z 24th

    spacer.png   spacer.png

    25th

    spacer.png  spacer.png

     

    ecmwf150f216.png  ecmwf150f240.png

    cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

     

     

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    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vikos

    6 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Still lot’s to be sorted out with the charts,chopping and changing GFS good tonight but will it

    be different on the pub run,probably my take need to wait to at least the weekend for more

    clarity.One thing for sure this winter has still plenty of surprises for us cold lovers.

    Wouldn't put to much trust into GFS (op+P) atm

    cordieoff_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Thanks ECM..and I would think now is the chance for some to have a little look back at the thread this morning,when some were in despair at the 0Z output..It proves the point that things not only change at short notice,but can change significantly as well..Thats why its best to view the output with your mind in perspective..3 or 4 bad runs dont spell the end of Winter...just like a few great runs dont mean the Day After Tomorrow is coming...volatility is very much in evidence with the output..I would expect we have quite a lot in the short term to pin down just now,but the doors are very much opening for something more potent in the coming weeks. It might be a roller coaster ride but we should very much get ready to enjoy both the ups and downs that come with it.

    I agree somehow (and I feel that I am one of the mentioned). But (and it's a big but ) it's not that the models aren't showing anything good (=cold) in their schwifty (copyright Rick and Morty) outputs, it's the fact that they are delaying things and not getting into reachable time areas like lets say +144h. It's the wellknown 1 step forward, 2 steps back game that is happening.

    But ok, lets keep the faith and still listen to the background signals and the twitters, what else is there to do? Sitting in agony? No!

     

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    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    I agree Vikos. What I wanted to say, that the next possible opportunity will come in second week of February.

    Something else.

    From monday onwards the Oper is on the mild side of the ENS. I don't see cold weather in the plume.

     

    eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

    See, this is a good example. Even with the best setup in years it fails and scratches always on the warmest/mildest outcome there possibly can be. It’s like we are witched. Without a wonder, a scandi high popping up or so, things look meh

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    You used to tell us not to look at didi land - What's happened to the optimistic Vikos? 

    Well, kind of resignation. The candle of opportunity is slowly dying, days get longer, and the models are playing the delaying game. I could kick myself for that i got sucked into the thrill of hunting d10 bfte charts, again.

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    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    EC46 shows we have to wait for the second week of February. Matt Hugo seems to point in that direction as well. J

     

    Know what? Those twitters are predicting great stuff, but they get delayed and delayed. Was 25th, then month change, then first week of February, now it’s somewhere in the middle. See my avatar for closer detail...

    • Like 17

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Gem and ecm... 240 nobody else think the models are in flux rather than settling on something certain yet? 

    Hard to make any conclusions when FI is a couple of days away surely? 

    gemnh-0-240 (2).png

    gemnh-1-240 (3).png

    ECH1-240.gif

    ECH0-240.gif

    If things go that way then it is game over. The cold block shifted its position towards Canada, igniting the North Atlantic cyclogenesis. Endless autumn goes on. Very bad morning runs!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    mdhgjfxx.jpg

    The comparison of the GFS Strat. Prognosis from January 20, 2021 (left) shows a direct hit in the analysis from January 25, 2021 (right): The analyzed air pressure distribution in the lower stratosphere at around 16 km altitude (100 hPa) is almost identical to the Forecast from January 20, 2021. The polar vortex is divided into a Eurasian main vortex and a Canadian partial vortex (split) by a high pressure bridge over northern Canada. A strong northern current leads from the Arctic over the North Sea directly to Western and Central Europe, a strong cold trough over the Baltic Sea steered the snowy trough to Central Europe on January 24th, 2021. ECMWF deserves the same praise.

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A look in the stratosphere, there are still big question marks regarding the coupling between the vortex in the stratosphere (SPV) and the Troposphere (TPV). Repeatedly expected heat flows from the Asian Sector still do not allow a thorough regeneration of the vortex. At the beginning of the medium term range, in 10 hPa around the Laptev and Kara seas however, the medium term should shift rapidly towards Greenland, while an extensive anti-cyclone across the North Pacific sector did this forced "displacement" of the SPW.

    Similar, there is also the downtransition area SPV to TPV wich can be made out, although the vortex currents there is quite weak. It is interesting that at least the GEFS indicates a coupling at the beginning of the medium term. So far so good. However, numerics models have massive problems with the pressure forecast throughout the arctic area. This is evident in the distinctive run-to-run Discrepancies in the pressure minima of sometimes several hundred kilometers, as well repeated strongly changing cross-polar cold flows from the Asian sector initially in the Canadian, now increasingly in the Scandinavian / Siberian area (possibly consequences of the indicated coupling between SPV and TPV?). A look at the ensemble spread also shows Uncertainties quickly become so lasting that any detailed work becomes obsolete.

    But what is noticeable in the troposphere is an increase in the wave number comparatively short amplitudes and thus increased progressivity. This wave train is forced by repeated positive ones anomaly maxima in the 500 hPa geopotential field around the Aleutian Islands. These wander swiftly over North America to the east, but on a southerly track. This is owed due an abnormally high geopotential over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or, in other words, a retrograde to the west offset negative NAO anomaly, which is even increasingly starting to the west, that the calculated NAO gradually slips towards the 0-line.

    The NAO / AO however, remain in the negative range, with the member scatter at the end of the Increases dramatically in the medium term, but this is due to the shift of the TPV in the direction of Greenland, this caues a development wich is close to North Pole for then falling geopotential. This southern Rossby wave train now interacts over the medium term with an air mass over the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which is extremely warm with a view to the model climate (e.g. caused due to largely positive anomalies of the water surface temperature, but also by remnants of an intense subtropical that predominated until recently Anticyclones over the Canaries, the strong desert air advehed to the west and further heated by subsidence). This air mass is between the vigorous Atlantic lows and an anticyclone over Morocco, and it is (slowly weakening) led to the northeast.

    Although the air mass cools down a little when it is lifted, nevertheless, the medium term can exceed 850 hPa in south-west and south of Europe Temperature values of 10-15 degrees are expected. The EFI underlines that unusual warmth in southwestern Europe with values of 0.8-1 and an SOT of partly over +1. If you look at the corresponding CDFs, you can see very steep ones Gradients (signs of high security) in the record range. Also the EFI 2m values (weekly averaged) this medium-term is about between the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa between 0.8 and 1 and on the basis of selected meteograms we are beyond the 99th percentile. Or in other words: Record values are particularly possible in Spain and across North Africa.

    The western edge of this warm air mass gets in track of the rain Atlantic Low pressure Activity that initiates a pronounced so-called "atmospheric flow", which leads with predicted integrated water vapor values of 30-40 mm much moisture in to Western and partly also to Central Europe. That means that from the west swiveling low pressure areas following an abnormally warm and humid Have air mass and thus abundant precipitation for parts of Western and Central Europe becomes an issue.

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    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A look in the stratosphere, there are still big question marks regarding the coupling between the vortex in the stratosphere (SPV) and the Troposphere (TPV). Repeatedly expected heat flows from the Asian Sector still do not allow a thorough regeneration of the vortex. At the beginning of the medium term range, in 10 hPa around the Laptev and Kara seas however, the medium term should shift rapidly towards Greenland, while an extensive anti-cyclone across the North Pacific sector did this forced "displacement" of the SPW.

    Similar, there is also the downtransition area SPV to TPV wich can be made out, although the vortex currents there is quite weak. It is interesting that at least the GEFS indicates a coupling at the beginning of the medium term. So far so good. However, numerics models have massive problems with the pressure forecast throughout the arctic area. This is evident in the distinctive run-to-run Discrepancies in the pressure minima of sometimes several hundred kilometers, as well repeated strongly changing cross-polar cold flows from the Asian sector initially in the Canadian, now increasingly in the Scandinavian / Siberian area (possibly consequences of the indicated coupling between SPV and TPV?). A look at the ensemble spread also shows Uncertainties quickly become so lasting that any detailed work becomes obsolete.

    But what is noticeable in the troposphere is an increase in the wave number comparatively short amplitudes and thus increased progressivity. This wave train is forced by repeated positive ones anomaly maxima in the 500 hPa geopotential field around the Aleutian Islands. These wander swiftly over North America to the east, but on a southerly track. This is owed due an abnormally high geopotential over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or, in other words, a retrograde to the west offset negative NAO anomaly, which is even increasingly starting to the west, that the calculated NAO gradually slips towards the 0-line.

    The NAO / AO however, remain in the negative range, with the member scatter at the end of the Increases dramatically in the medium term, but this is due to the shift of the TPV in the direction of Greenland, this caues a development wich is close to North Pole for then falling geopotential. This southern Rossby wave train now interacts over the medium term with an air mass over the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which is extremely warm with a view to the model climate (e.g. caused due to largely positive anomalies of the water surface temperature, but also by remnants of an intense subtropical that predominated until recently Anticyclones over the Canaries, the strong desert air advehed to the west and further heated by subsidence). This air mass is between the vigorous Atlantic lows and an anticyclone over Morocco, and it is (slowly weakening) led to the northeast.

    Although the air mass cools down a little when it is lifted, nevertheless, the medium term can exceed 850 hPa in south-west and south of Europe Temperature values of 10-15 degrees are expected. The EFI underlines that unusual warmth in southwestern Europe with values of 0.8-1 and an SOT of partly over +1. If you look at the corresponding CDFs, you can see very steep ones Gradients (signs of high security) in the record range. Also the EFI 2m values (weekly averaged) this medium-term is about between the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa between 0.8 and 1 and on the basis of selected meteograms we are beyond the 99th percentile. Or in other words: Record values are particularly possible in Spain and across North Africa.

    The western edge of this warm air mass gets in track of the rain Atlantic Low pressure Activity that initiates a pronounced so-called "atmospheric flow", which leads with predicted integrated water vapor values of 30-40 mm much moisture in to Western and partly also to Central Europe. That means that from the west swiveling low pressure areas following an abnormally warm and humid Have air mass and thus abundant precipitation for parts of Western and Central Europe becomes an issue.

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