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Vikos

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Posts posted by Vikos

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    If there is a decent chance of an SSW, or at least signs similar to that of the EC then we may see a wording change from the METO fir the long range. As for the 8-12 day range it would be nice to see that improve even further on the 12zs, and possible brought forward a day or 2!!

     

    Something like this around day 10 maybe. 

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

    What kind of SSW do you mean? Minor warming or major warming with wind reversal (wich i don’t find any signs for in the next future)

    regards

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Encouraging GEFS so far to day 7 with the Euro high either flattened or displaced further west.

    European ski resorts will be praying this trend continues as it’s been a horror show for the last few weeks especially for lower altitude stations .

    Sadly, a few people already died due the lag of snow in the mountains when they came off route and crashed into non snow covered rocky terrain… 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Keep up the good work everyone, must admit I feel quite low for a number of reasons. 
     

    My Ill health has had an upside as recently it has meant I have had the pleasure to chase the cold in the last few weeks. More So to learn more about all aspects of the tools available to us. 
     

    I have enjoyed the cold period and a bit of snow fall we had here too.

    I admit I was clinging on to the GF charts a little at the end but it's the hope that gets you eh. Hats off especially to @CreweCold that called this right so early on ( had my fingers in my ears ) 

    My Ulcerative Colitis in the meantime has got a little worse so much more fatigued but I have been fortunate that I am being treated by some fantastic Doctors and Nurses at Kingston Hospital. 
     

    Hopefully we can turn on the winter tap once again this winter. 
     

    Kind Regards Mark

    Quick and full recovery to you! Nothing is more important than health! 

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Heading upto the Scottish Highlands will be the only way to see some decent snow the next 10 days. 

    Woeful away from there, just standard UK winter weather. Dull and boring. 

    +Germany

    all turned into greenbrownish wet sadness. And don’t tell me about any background signals and stuff, spreading hope at +348h… the wintership  has set sails and waves goodbye. 

    • Like 3
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    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    So - farewell to our cold spell. Warm, wet and windy here this morning...and always (for me) a sad feeling when the ice and frost depart. I would also say "snow" except I didn't see a flake and so that particular gloomy emotion I am spared!

    While the waning of the pattern has brought in a milder snap there is plenty to consider going forward. I nailed multiple flags onto my "cold in the last third" pole a while back and that is going to prove incorrect. Timing is always the killer and the timing is off. However, the direction of travel is still the same. ECM for tomorrow:

    Could contain: Outdoors, Graphics, Art, Nature, Accessories, Disk, Plot, Chart

    Note the signficant and deep trough coming out of East Asia that is pumping up the Alaskan ridge and forcing it up towards the pole. This is the second amplification sector of the month underway - but about 5 or 6 days later than I thought it would happen. Que Sera.

    By Xmas Eve the peak/trough shape is well established:

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Pattern, Accessories, Art

    Note now momentum carrying through to the atlantic sector with a signal just appearing for heights to rise again over Greenland. For me ECM then loses the plot a bit - picking things up on Boxing Day with GEM we can clearly see that Greenland High being pushed up

    Could contain: Outdoors, Art

    Now....the big question as we approach the final stages of the month is whether this bout of amplification is enough to deliver a proper high latitude ridge, or whether the sub tropical high pressure belt in the Atlantic, and through to Europe, wins the day and prevents the southerly tracking jet that we were glad to see in the previous first amplification period of winter.

    NWP ceases to be much use in these scenarios when we get up and over 144h (sometimes less) and human head scratching enters the fray. And this is where it gets really complex. I posted a really interesting 4 wave hemispheric anomaly chart not many days ago - take a look at this one now:

    Could contain: Pattern, Person, Face, Head, Plot, Chart, Art

    If anything it has become even more mind bending - starting to look more like a starfish than a standard hemispheric weather pattern and quite honestly picking the specifics out of this is nigh on impossible. The current ensemble trend is for the Alaskan ridge to fade away towards Asia quite quickly so that by the 27th the EPS looks like this:

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Person, Face, Head

    Frustration perhaps for our Amis across the pond as low pressure heads back into the Aleutians and Alaska - no bad thing for Strat watchers overall though as this should signal the beginning of another round of strat attacks from the trop. Note also the signal for the Euro/Ural High building back in and edging north.

    What to make of all this? Well - there's the trick. For me the runs and the ensembles are all showing signs of trying to resolve the strange starfish pattern back towards something more 'normal' but I'm not sure this is a normal winter. I'm looking at an MJO that is now bedding in at reasonable strength and moving in the western Pacific

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Person, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Face, Head

    and this will help promote more amplification as we approach New Year just when we need it to sustain the pattern. Mountain Torques have hit the bottom of another trough but from here there is only one direction they can go - and note that in East Asia we have not seen much of a retraction of pacific jet strength in recent days.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Overall AAM is slipping into negative territory and so we are creeping towards a context that says we ought to see a flatter second half of winter especially if the strat downwells - BUT we are on the cusp of a hemipsheric pattern that will put more stress on the strat and we have the MJO right were we need it next CPC expert discussion later today eagerly awaited.

    Genuinely - I dont know. If this Nino-esque amplification pattern and current phase kicking off now gets enough punch to it then I could see us back in a cold airstream as we approach New Year. Or....if it doesnt quite have the penetration, and climatological bias towards strong sub tropical high pressure in a Nina pattern gets sufficient hold of things then we could be in average temperatures and looking at a very average UK shape with the north in cool cyclonic weather with the south a little more likely to see high pressure influence kick in.

    But despite all this uncertainty I'm not ready to throw the towel in quite yet regarding a Scandy High. Signs of it in the ensemble forecasts at range...and if that monster alaskan ridge does decide to drift to Asia and take pressure off the trough sitting over Scandy at the moment then height rises there to me are quite possible.

    So - I'd just sit back and enjoy the ride. I predict wild swings in Op runs - see GFS 06z on one end of the envelope and don't be surprised to see future runs of all models swing wildly in the coming days. Sod's Law and the usual UK climate picture would suggest that the coldest options wont appear and then we will be left desperately hunting for a SSW to do something in the second half of the season - but this is not a winter that has a usual look to it. All things possible....

     

    I am stunned about your effort! Thanks so much for that, that kind of posts make me come here as a foreign…

    thank you x3!!!

    • Like 28

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

    The older members here will see the potential of such deep cold directly to our North!! It's tantalisingly close to sweeping South by Christmas. There's always an if, but if it were to nudge further South this place would erupt!

    Loaded gun scenario, but no one still there to pull the trigger. Sadly no model has the guts to do so…

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    EPS 2m box-and-whiskers for De Bilt show milder than 0z middle next week, slightly colder at the very end of the 15 day extended.
    Not (yet?) the EPS shift we hoped for.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    A warm-up before Christmas is a classic though, a singularity which in Germany they call "Weihnachtstauwetter" (Christmas thaw weather).
    And then going cold towards the New Year? Well, that would be classic too.

    Yes that’s how we call it. Wonder if this singularity is always pre-embedded in any calculations…

    • Like 1
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