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Vikos

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vikos

    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Can’t help feeling that the situation in the USA is massively important if we are to see the current evolution upgrade into an epic cold spell over here (I’m not talking about the Christmas timescale here).  So I hope there is record warm across the pond!

    We may be looking down the barrel of a loaded gun… a massive displacement of the tPV towards Eu/scandi may be, and this mild interlude is just cocking the hammer? 

    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Can’t help feeling that the situation in the USA is massively important if we are to see the current evolution upgrade into an epic cold spell over here (I’m not talking about the Christmas timescale here).  So I hope there is record warm across the pond!

    We may be looking down the barrel of a loaded gun… a massive displacement of the tPV towards Eu/scandi may be, and this mild interlude is just cocking the hammer? 

    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Can’t help feeling that the situation in the USA is massively important if we are to see the current evolution upgrade into an epic cold spell over here (I’m not talking about the Christmas timescale here).  So I hope there is record warm acr

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Derecho said:

    I was surprised by the level of pessimism this morning. Hopefully we can get some cold anticyclonic weather before Christmas (output is still straddling a fine line here).

    If the high can move into the mid-Atlantic then that is a very good result considering the position we are in today. 

    I don't get all the doom and gloom further out as well. I don't think many were expecting 2009/10 to be a cold winter after such a mild November. There was one day I clearly remember in December when the model output was showing something close to a Bartlett within the day 7-10 range following this...

    image.thumb.png.03651fad9598c1c55696381ab5f7e430.png

    and everyone was fearing the worst but then just a single rogue GFS run did this at day 7 and out of nowhere the PV never recovered through the winter.

    image.thumb.png.aa011feba03ce4b47b6f01dd31db75dc.png

    Now I'm not suggesting that we will see a repeat but anything can happen after T240. We do have an El Nino and some kind of Atlantic tripole pattern so there is some similarity.

    image.thumb.png.53179e985bafb0717aed0d4352032762.png 

    I think it would be very reasonable to expect lower then average SLP over the Azores during the second half of the winter especially with tropical Atlantic SSTs being so warm. Not a guarantee of a cold spell but it has helped many...

    The 06z OP is a bit of an improvement later on compared to the 18z overnight. If I could be a little picky I'd prefer the high later in the week to be here....

    image.thumb.png.451320aa7e0c0a596d95f9ee712f19f2.png

    Instead of here...

    image.thumb.png.346d310088d64b2dd14be3e96fdca1da.png

    Still could end up seeing some very mild air going over the top if there is too much of a gradient.

    I was just to write that, that there are some synoptic similarities to 09/10…

    Some here are throwing away their guns to early, come on we’re on a battlefield with the Atlantic, fight! 😜🦅

    • Like 2
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