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Vikos

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Things looking interesting in the strat .

    Trop continues to disappoint - sick to death of wind and rain now and I'm sure I'm not alone.

    I'm remaining optimistic of a switch away from this garbage as we move into January but who really knows ..

    Here in Frankfurt it’s rainy and windy… I feel your words!

    but with a glance to the 10hpa winds, things will get better soon, I feel like we reached the climax of this s****ty weather! West will die.

    image.thumb.png.37290c3c7e4cd0b4182063c106cd7cfd.png

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    @MATTWOLVES 3 my deepest condolences… lost my dad 11y ago, today is my sons 12th birthday and just tonight I dreamed of him, he giving me a huge hug and telling me how proud he is. Pain goes away, remembering stays forever! 
     

    As a lot is going on downstairs, on the roof things are quite interesting, this displacement of the sPV is giving me hopes for a cold start into January 

    image.thumb.png.703f4fe79da9345b52d1e9957bd1d90c.png

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Nothing in the more reliable NWP to get excited about.  December 2023 is likely to outturn a milder than average month after starting so cold.

    With new record high temperatures in aspects of climate change I never expected anything else than short cold interludes in a rather autumn‘ish environment from November to February/March. Prolonged cold weather may be history, already…

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, snowbob said:

    I’m sure this is model related but I have just read that the sun has just erupted the biggest solar flare in years. To the point that the met office are monitoring a possible geometric storm on the 17th of December. Surely that wil be having an impact on the models right now. I believe I read a while a go that solar flares can scupper and confuse models to the point they fluctuate from mild to cold outcomes quite frequently.

    Don’t believe that. Models calculate with actual available parameters. So it must happen first to be feed into those calculations… 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    All major midwinter SSW's start from a warming coming around the Eurasion / siberian sector though, you don't just see red appearing in the core of the vortex, they build in a few days, if the 6z went further it may have shown a technical SSW a week later.

    It’s a very interesting displacement of the sPV… if the downwelling does its work, in beginning  to mid January things can get chilly 🥶 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Think many on here will disagree with regards to the UK, many saw snow last week, while around 11th/12th Dec 2022 it snowed a lot in places, and Dec 2022 was below average. For Germany in your location, there's been cold and snow this December, e.g, Munich 40cm of snow.

     

    If I say that it was an cold interlude will you agree? Happens in every mild winter for a couple of days…

    here, in Germany, it’s all flushed away, even in priorized areas. In my town, the snow lasted for 12 hours and was gone by noon 🕛 

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Let’s see what the EC ENS say, I’d think the Op will be on the warm side between 22-26th!! 

    Overall, the route is rather mild‘ish than cold in terms of winter weather conditions… 

    next stop of hope would be a ssw somewhere in January, but we all know how long it takes to deliver any goods (if at all)…

    we have to face it, December isn’t a winter month any more, last one was 13 years ago and was peaking out in a series of mild winters…

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