[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

27 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

You wouldn’t believe how valuable experience actually is when it comes to weather models.

You can quickly see when things are going wrong after a while of doing this.

This is just Murphy’s law

„Anything that can go wrong will go wrong“

 

people need to chill over wobbly det op outputs as they struggle with splits and minor/major warmings…

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s also a deeper cold pool over Germany waiting to move west .

You’ll see the ECM takes the nuisance shortwave ne and then absorbs it .

They start to talk about deep but mostly dry frost the next 10 days… and to be very cautious on those frozen lakes wich are newly made from the floodings…

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Looks just about alright..but firstly ICON not as good now the gfs..are we losing the easterly option again?

You need to chill, brother… this microanalysis of every run can ruin your mental stability

let those runs at least finish and than go to comparison. 
the path is clear, it will turn colder… maybe much colder! Just hearing the news in the radio, saying about severe snowstorms in Scandinavia, 50cm snow in Denmark… and that’s just around the corner…not something in Yankee-land as usual

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Sobering

In all seriousness, excellent run 

Wait until the 00z come out…

fantastic runs tonight, please let EC be on the same road!

sPV looks angry  

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The Greek version of netweather will be setting off the boom GIFs, but yeh it's not bad at all from a hemispheric perspective 

Indeed, some go crazy already, but the most worry about a another catastrophic natural Desaster after the wildfires and the floodings last year. 
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

After BOOOOOOM comes sobering… every time. 
 

but with a sPV like this, there is absolutely no need to write off any colder prospects 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

People are talking as if we’re loosing the signal for cold - when it’s actually increasing with every run

Good and informative post are currently getting flushed away by numerous oneliners commenting every single timeframe chart trying to spot even the smallest change to previous runs… I mean since yesterday evening there are +200 new posts, I am losing the grip. So thanks to those who are reposting gold post like from @Tamara

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

JMA SPV dissolving

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Bit of a break before 12z runs..

Coldies like myself will be hoping EC det has it nailed..

Exeters musings will give us a good idea ..

I have no doubt that EC is leading the way. When GFS and others wanted cold over and before Xmas, ec was stubborn on the mild side. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

18 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I doubt anyone would agree 18z is the most reliable run. It has the name ‘pub run’ for a reason!

Well, don’t know… the 18z is the Yankee prime time forecast source someone once said…

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Gfs 00z should always be treated very carefully because it has the less amount of data input from all 4 runs… 18z has the best data..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Ah, the old UK high, great news for the Greeks, boring for us.

I hope that is not where we finish up

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

To much overanalyse going on for side runs of a rather bad performing model

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

JMA also in line building up Atlantic heights…

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

28 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS has been gradually backing away from a SSW in recent runs, particularly last nights 00z with a fairy substantial shift away, following yesterdays 12z EPS suite.

Tonights EC46 will certainly make for interesting viewing, I'd not be surprised to see this trend away from the idea too given more recent modelling. 

Isn’t EC leading in Strat/Trop because of more vertical layers? 
also JMA is very strong I heard once…

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Anyone remember JMA? Was popular here once… 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The charts could be showing duff data due to lack of Xmas flights data.

Won’t agree to that..

as far as I know, after 240h data input is cut to -30% less…

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Have to do it, sorry guys…

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 minutes ago, johncam said:

Let's be honest the models are all over the place , not two of them the same 

Not at all. Maybe looking at wrong outputs?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Lets prepare those 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

If someone is interested were GFS gets its data from…

the 00z always seems to have the lowest data input, 18z the highest…

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

19 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Nothing says ‘21st century winter’ better than these Christmas mornings dawn temps across the vast majority of Europe…hard frost for much of Iberia, 11c in Poland

Rather normal euro winter. Greece will have 20-25c today, and I do remember in my childhood times that I  went for a swim around new year often…

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Tripole?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

36 minutes ago, Jacob said:

Finally

According to this chart, downward development will take its time, may some goods will be delivered in or even after 3rd quarter of January…

But also good to see that west open end dies at new year

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Jacob said:

This is for what timeframe? And knowledge tells me that this can raise rapidly within few days…