Updated_Weather

This should be clearer

This is a BOOM for me Such a change in short notice!

Colchester, that’s where I am. This morning had few wintry showers.

The fact Scotland always get snow in a northerly! Whilst us down south, struggle.

I think potentially no model has this right. I say expect the unexpected. This is going to be a nowcast situation! The models can't agree what to do with this low. It does as explained by Met Office in their video, all depend how it interacts with the Jet stream and they do tend to be further south than what is currently being shown. Will be interesting to see where we are in the morning with the radar and what is actually falling! I had sleet/snow showers today at 65m in North east Essex. When everything was saying rain.

Be interesting to see the ensembles. & the control. I do wonder how many rather take that low further south.

We have lift off. 12z GFS rolling out on Meteociel! Bit too far north!

Of course!

What model do we feel is usually best with snowfall? How is Arome? Hermonie?

Good to see some heavier precipitation. Could mean more heavy snow;)

Got a feeling maybe we could hold on to the cold in the south. Maybe south coast gets the milder air in before another reload push from the north. All interesting nonetheless. But yes, a sizeable move south in that position of the low for Thursday!

Can see more trends further south occurring as we go further in the week. ECM06z does have the low for Thursday quite a bit more south than 00z

Not enough confidence/ they don't see much impact yet?

Looking forward to the upgrade, expected in June 2023. Just hope it doesn't do a GFS and make it worse! nope!

Defiantly see some interesting surprises occurring at short notice! Met Office do seem confident of some snow down south but did mention, that ICE is the main risk here. I am hoping Essex here we get some snow falling, not bothered about accumulation as had very nice amount early December

And also a level 3 cold weather alert until Thursday!

ECM upgrades!

MetO have just issue a weather warning for Midlands and E/A - Interesting!

Just goes to show that this models can’t peak up little features. Here in north east Essex, had a few snow showers which was unexpected!

don’t think it would be snow. Air isn’t cold enough yet. I stand correct. Radar does show sleet/light snow showers east London..

This just seems like a typical case where the low is (modelled) to be further north than anticipated but sooner to the event, it is actually more south. Have seen this happen all the way up to T+6! We are still days away. Plenty of flip and flopping to come. Not worried here. I live in North East Essex and expect to see some snow.

ICON12z Defiantly does seem the Atlantic is more flat. Less progressive and seems to be the 60% chance MetO were going on about in their latest video! Positive signs!

Despite GFS performance. It's actually not been that bad at getting the pattern correct. It just seems to overblow lows/over exaggerate 850s But good thing here is, GFS isn't without support from other models. So nothing really to worry about. Also ECM was at the top of it's ensembles.

Why is it when one run goes rouge? People panic. Wait until we see the ensembles. One det run doesn't mean it's right. Remember this is just one option. So far it's UKMO, GFS vs ECM. We await the ensembles.

Does seem the Atlantic seems to loose strength? We could potentially be seeing the extension of cold. Have models underestimated the block?