Updated_Weather

It does seem like all models have massively underestimated this PPN & the extent of it, closely watching the radar as it pushes N/E - areas like - Essex - Kent -Sussex - surrey - possibly London, all look in a firing line - maybe 2-5cm expected here, maybe 10-20cm on higher ground ofc we will see how far west this could push and how heavy this PPN stays as it pushes N/E As I say this, MetO increase the likelihood and bring the time forward

I’m talking about the cold weather alert warning as it’s been extended & they said stated this event which could affect London and the S/E has a 30% chance at this stage. As if it did occur could cause disruption.

They’ve currently placed a 30% of this happening

And slightly further west

I really don’t understand the panic and the “it’s over” comments.. this low which btw is only just forming and we don’t know how strong/how quickly it weakens (because it will weaken before it gets close to the UK. it’s only normal models are playing with some ideas on where they think it’ll head. but from my POV, I won’t comment on what could possibly be significant snow or just cold & dry, or maybe a mild blip. Who knows. I’ll wait until Friday when we will know a lot more on what position we will be in. for now we will just keep seeing a lot of chop and changing.

When does the 12z ensemble come out?

Just goes to show. No-model has any idea. One thing I have learned whilst being on this forum is, we get into these scenarios time and time again & the reaction is always the same. Everyone just needs to remain calm. We don't know the outcome yet. ECM could be wrong. or right. It doesn't matter, weather will do what weather wants. We await the ensembles to see where everything stands.

They don’t seem to think it’ll do that much

you aren’t going to know if any snow/precipitation is on the way until much closer, Most of the case, things pop up at short notice, little features. as long as we see little kinks on the fax charts, there is always that chance is some sort of precipitation being shown.

Pretty sure that volcano will mainly be lava and not much in the way of ash etc.. Could be wrong.

Nothing is never nailed on. Unless 48/96hrs away imo Things can pop up at short notice. But I guess it does depend on the pattern. When high pressure is involved, you usually can get increased confidence.

When it’s confused! It tends to always try and revert to a flatter pattern. I.e dartboard lows, or raging westerlies!

I guess I’ll join in again. Another year and another chase. Absolutely loving the prospects and what possibly could be on the horizon.. GFS started with its usual tricks. But the mighty ECM holding strong and remaining consistent kept me relaxed, and look where we are now. GFS following the ECM. ECM is king, and it’s showing why at this stage. We are in a VERY good position here folks. Remember get the cold in first, then we look at snow opportunities - Strap in!

Maybe not.. Some weather stations report weekly so won’t know yet if some areas did reach more than 40.3c

doubt it. wall to wall sunshine here in Essex.

Latest outlook for this weekend from Matt Hugo - “Troublesome transition this weekend continues.. 00z GFS ENS highlights for N Eng. Note the ‘clean’ drop in theta-e from yesterday’s 12z on Sat which is no longer present on the 00z run. Possible developing low (00z UKMO eg) over France the catalyst for delaying clearance of heat’

Tbh.. I can sense this going one way, we’ve had this high pressure for a while and continue to have it.. quite similar to 2020.. and look what happened in feb 2020.. high pressure made way for several named storms and wind.

I mean.. Not saying its right or anything, but GFS has been quite consistent with itself recently.. Whether that is wrong.. Remains to be seen just yet. Quite interesting imo

ICON 18z..

All very possible of course.

Not really frustrating when imo it’s FI so changes are very likely. In our favour or not.

Yeah don’t think that’s how it works..

Very different from 18z in FI..