oliverek7

Love watching how the weather models chop and change! However it makes me very anxious when there is a new update from each of the models, never know what it could show! I’m hoping the trough in the jet stream forecast for middle of next week will move further south and east as that would be in the perfect position for a strong easterly wind, however both ecm and gfs are also showing a low near Scandinavia which concerns me...

Latest ec models showing jet stream taking a sharp dive next week with a trough forming just south of the uk, perfect setup for easterly winds as low pressure should form in that trough!!!

Latest weather models showing next week the jet stream take a huge dive south so we become stranded in the northern side of the jet with low pressure in charge, could make for some pretty interesting weather with some colder air. If that low pressure was to move south and the huge high over western Russia to split and move towards the north east we would be in the perfect set up for an easterly! A glimmer of hope is on the horizon for next week and beyond! (Probably nothing will happen but we shall see!)

ECM charts showing a very deep area of low pressure heading for the uk next Wednesday, 964mb! Very gusty winds up to 74mph, could be interesting as it bumps into colder air!

-8 can be cold enough for snow but I’ve heard before that uppers were -10 and rain fell still. That’s quite a rare occurrence though, usually it only has to be -5 uppers for it to snow but who knows. The easterly flow is almost definitely not going to happen in the short term but next week by the end of this month and start of feb we could start to see the ssw effects finally reaching the trophosphere and high latitude blocking may occur as the jet stream is showing signs of diving southeast which could allow the polar wind reversal effects to give us an easterly wind of high pressure forms northeast of the uk

The problem is is these deep areas of low pressure in the US unjecting energy into the jet stream and therefore pushing away a blocking high over Scandinavia which was originally going to be building by the middle of this week but because of that storm from the US it has complicated things a lot!

My mind is hurting from looking at the weather for so long. When I shut my eyes all i see is pressure charts. can this cold weather just arriv already!?

Showing a few cm of snowfall accumulated by Tuesday night (GFS model)

I think, judging by the latest ec, icon and gfs models, they appear to be converging on the idea of building pressure over Scandinavia by 28th/29th or at least by the turn of the month, obviously still extremely uncertain. And the low that comes out of the US this Monday (the winter storm) will race across the North Atlantic past Iceland and into Scandinavia, almost bumping the high pressure, that was supposed to have built by the middle of the week, into north west Russia, opening the door to westerly or northwesterly winds which would be less cold. The building pressure over Scandinavia is showing signs of returning by the end of this month if the low moves down the North Sea and into the Mediterranean like it says which would give us a strong easterly airflow and snow showers hitting eastern parts of the uk. Currently it all depends where the us storm moves. Hopefully this will all unfold but it is just impossible to ascertain at this stage. I’m watching the weather like a hawk at the moment!

It happened consecutively in 2009/2010 though so you never know

Oh ok, well this is a weather discussion with banter in the title after all, I forgot about that

Yes, I have been looking at the ecmwf model and it has been delayed, the original Forecast a few days ago was correct in the sense that the predictions made a few days ago will happen, it is now looking like it will take longer for the blocking pattern to develop due to the us winter storm taking longer to move across the atlantic and down the North Sea into the mediterranean, presumably as a result of the very slow progress of the ssw effects reaching down to the trophosphere. This was supposed to happen at he middle of next week however the us low is now being taken to Scandinavia first, pushing the high pressure, that would have given us the cold easterly flow, into Russia. After that point, the same low will move down the North Sea (still uncertain though) and into France and then the Mediterranean by the start of the week beginning 28th of January allowing high pressure to re establish itself and build over Scandinavia and then there is the increasing chance of easterly winds so it still may happen, just a little delayed as the ssw event is causing very slow changes this time round as opposed to last year’s one which happened very quickly.

Forecast is correct in the sense that the predictions made a few days ago will happen, it is now looking like it will take longer for the blocking pattern to develop due to the us winter storm taking longer to move across the atlantic and down the North Sea into the mediterranean. This was supposed to happen at he middle of next week however it is now being taken to Scandinavia first, pushing the high pressure, that would have given us the cold easterly flow, into Russia. After that point, the same low will move down the North Sea (still uncertain though) and into France and then the Mediterranean by the start of the week beginning 28th of January allowing high pressure to re establish itself and build over Scandinavia and then there is the increasing chance of easterly winds so it still may happen, just a little delayed as the ssw event is causing very slow changes this time round as opposed to last year’s one which happened very quickly.

That is not true, we have got half the winter left still!

If you look at the most recent icon run it is showing high pressure building over Scandinavia by Friday however it doesn’t go beyond that day so we will just have to wait and see!

I am praying for a blocking high to develop over Scandinavia at some point soon!

I have been watching the weather models like a hawk in the hope of a severe cold spell, unfortunately looking less likely for next week although it will still be on the chilly side. EC model is predicting north to north easterlies for Thursday but they soon change to westerlies as the Azores high nudges in to the southwest and an enormous area of low pressure in the north moves into Iceland so chances for cold and snow for the southeast are very slim as milder air arrives by Saturday, however, by the 29th I’m seeing high pressure building over Scandinavia and low pressure moving south east of the uk so possibility of an easterly or northeasterly but very uncertain as there is over a week to go, icon is thinking it will happen a bit earlier but there is still a lot to play for. I WANT COLD image courtesy of windy.com showing the icon-Eu prediction for next Friday