Cloud 10

Not much change on the 18z with a large-scale trough establishing over Scandinavia and in no particular hurry to move.

New fax chart for Thursday is out already and has the 528 dam line well south of the UK with various troughs heading South in a cold Northerly air stream.

Maybe i should take the winter tyres off my car as that would almost guarantee at least 8 inches of snow.

The probable cold spell coming up has a much greater margin for error than the last one,thanks to a "spoke" of the polar vortex setting up shop over Scandinavia. Compare this to last weeks cold spell which had a very narrow margin of error.

Next Wednesday afternoon. The let down will then continue into the weekend and into the next week with further re-loads of let downs as we go through February.

An amazing 120 hrs chart from the ECM this evening,with everything but the kitchen sink on offer if it verified!

UKMO and GFS at 120 hrs,UKMO makes much less of the Canadian vortex and is much better downstream. ukmo.. gfs..

Interesting feature over Scotland at 144 hrs on the 00z ECM with a 963mb LP wrapped up in cold uppers and super-low thicknesses. Not much chance of verifying like that,but would certainly provide some interest if it did! ECM ensemble mean at day 10 is pretty impressive all round.

Welcome to Netweather,but remember to post with a smile...... Pretty much universal agreement across ensembles,anomalies and operational runs for a deep trough just East of the UK as we head for the end of the month giving cold and unsettled conditions. gefs day 10.. ecm mean day 10.. noaa 8-14... gfs/ecm op.mean.. No surprise that NOAA have high confidence in their forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html How cold?.....Will it snow in Carlisle?.....How long will it last?....Stay tuned.

The changes to colder solutions in the medium term timeframe have been well covered and leads on to 10 day mean charts such as these from the GEFS.

Day 8 ensemble means from GEFS and ECM have similar ideas with a deep trough close to the East of the UK with a cold NW flow likely. ECM is typically more amplified so has the trough further West than GEFS,although NOAA seem keen on highly amplified solutions so ECM could be on the ball here. ecm.. gefs.. Must be some stonking Northerlies amongst the 51 ECM ensemble members after day 7.

Yes,has happened plenty of times before when the Polar Vortex gets a shove to our side of the Hemisphere.

The JMA has the UK turning purple at day 8! A shining example of deep troughing.

That looks really quite useful. Any news on "what happened next"? Cheers BA.

NOAA very happy campers this evening in their discussions,and high confidence in both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day timeframe. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AND A PERSISTENT, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html That's the forecaster equivalent of a ten from len.

Yes,that's probably it for the showers off the north sea for the moment,although still worth keeping an eye on just in case. Might be some snow about on Wednesday as the front coming in from the West stalls over the region.

Well,some very wintry scenes around these parts today with some prolonged and sometimes heavy snow showers leaving almost a 3 inch covering now. Managed to avoid the A692 on the way home from work (past experience) and came back tanfield lea way then some back roads up Harperley which were very quiet!

A lot of the region below freezing at the moment,and dewpoint's between -3 and -5 which is nice.

Someones obviously pressed the "north sea convection" on button.

Well played sir. Nice upgrade in the 850's at 84 hrs from the 18z.

The showers east of Scotland are now making good progress towards the region,not sure why they got "held up" for so long.

New fax charts for Wednesday show front/fronts stalling across the middle of the UK...

Might need two cups of coffee to get an idea of it. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/46153-mjo-rossby-and-kelvin-waves/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Already freezing over here,just saw torvill and dean skating down the back street.

Looks to be quite a gap between the fun-filled trough affecting the south of the region and the clump of showers off the coast of Eastern Scotland,so hopefully a freeze up before they arrive.