Cloud 10

A snippet from today's NOAA discussions pretty much says it all. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO CONTINUED POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE 6Z AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

The ensemble mean is generally the best tool to use at day 10 as it verifies the best,however in this case there is a high spread of solutions around Scandinavia on that ECM chart,so much lower confidence on this occasion.

Santa comes tomorrow....... :smiliz19: A cold,bright and mainly dry day across much of the UK,with a chilly Northwesterly breeze,but there will be some wintry showers around in coastal areas exposed to the wind,and perhaps coming a bit further inland in Northwest England. Merry Christmas to everyone and a happy (snowy ) new year.

ECM not feeling festive this evening.....Humbug........Humbug!

The GEM wins the Christmas eve festive model award for bringing a tiny patch of -16 uppers into the SE corner. :smiliz64: Unless the ECM can do better...

If you thought the 12z was good......

Yes,not a perfect sausage,but its a start. :w00t:

Looks like the 18z is shifting towards the ECM and UKMO solution early in its run. Best shown using a jetstream comparison between the 12z and the 18z at around 72 hrs. 12z.. 18z..

At least tomorrow should be a much better day when we will finally get rid of this rain/drizzle/murk.

Lets hope its not comedy cold.

Going forward there looks to be a good chance of Low Pressure going under the High to prevent it form slipping away South East,therefore extending any potential cold spell. Where's Nick Sussex when you need him to provide a more elegant explanation. :smiliz64:

Just 2 days to go now....don't forget to get the turkey out the freezer. :smiliz19: Forecast pretty much set now with a cold,bright and mainly dry Christmas day across the UK,although still with the chance of some wintry showers around coastal counties exposed to the Northerly/Northwesterly breeze. Apologies to anybody reading the thread for the first time as i have accidentally erased all the charts from previous days thanks to an over-enthusiastic purge on deleting attachments. Still,never mind,its Christmas....

UKMO ends with a UK high at day 6 giving some hard frosts with cold uppers trapped in its circulation. Could be good going forward as well.

1st 12z model out of the blocks is the GME with the beginnings of an Easterly.

OPI = October Pattern Index SAI = Snow Advance Index

It would seem that its updated now.

The text is identical to yesterday,so probably update later. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/page-92#entry3094515

The (possible) LP for Saturday is now in fax chart range and would bring some nasty weather with it,with rain and wind being the main features at this stage. 120 hrs..

The level of uncertainty for 120 hrs shows up nicely on the ECM ensemble spreads when comparing with 96 hrs. 96.. 120.. Anyway,the pub run is churning out now,so no doubt more drama.

Unsurprisingly,not much confidence from NOAA in their discussions for the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. Full discussion here. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Here are the ecm,gfs and ukmo at 120 hrs.

Some decent agreement at 96 hrs from ecm,gfs and ukmo. What now?

Aberdeen = yes Norwich =yes (might be very late in the day) All others = no

Just 3 days left now. A cold and bright day for most of the UK with a light Northwesterly breeze,but still a decent chance for some folk to sneak a white christmas,with the best chance looking to be in Northeast Scotland early in the day,and then a chance for some wintry showers running down eastern coastal counties as the day progresses.

Someone's working on it now...