Cloud 10

That's the equivalent of eye candy from the NAEFS... ...with the control run from the GEM putting some meat on the bones. edited to include correct naefs chart.

13 days to go now... Well,the GFS parallel was a bit late coming out this evening,but i can't say it was worth the wait. High pressure in control over nearly all of the UK with a mild South-westerly flow.

Used to have a gas meter many years ago which took 50p pieces,then they came and changed it for a one that took £1 coins. I may have drifted off topic.... Someone must have heard you and given it a kick as its out to 180 hrs now.

An interesting drive to work this morning in heavy snow and strong winds. Very icy out here now and still a thin covering on grassed areas which makes it the longest lasting lying snow since Spring 2013! Lets see how far North that precip. on the radar can get,and more importantly what falls from the sky.

Only 2 weeks to go now,so what is today's chart suggesting? The general trend remains the same with high pressure close to the South of the UK giving a fairly mild Christmas day with a breeze from the West. All this consistency in FI is making me nervous.

Started off sleety but proper snow here now.

I wish the ECM went a bit further out.

The control run would deliver for parts of Scotland... ...but ensemble 20 is where the real action is.

15 days to go now and still no Santa smiley's. Today's chart for Christmas day from the 12z gfs..... ......is worryingly similar to yesterday's apart from the High to the Southwest being more influential,so would probably give a fairly mild and cloudy day in general. Lets hope the trend doesn't continue.

Got a hail and rain shower here at the moment,and looking good for through the night and early morning.

The GFS 18z P has snow across the region on Friday morning as well.

Quite a difference between the NAEFS and the ECM ensemble mean at day 10,with the ECM wanting to flatten the pattern,whereas the NAEFS looks to continue the pattern we have now and also has a much more influential Russian high. naefs.. ecm..

Its that time of year again and the GFS has churned out its first Christmas day charts. This is meant as more of a light hearted festive sort of thread to give an idea for the weather for the big day itself,and just using the 12z GFS parallel to avoid chart overdose. So,onto the first chart which is a whopping 16 days away. A cool Westerly flow across much of the UK,and fairly unsettled, more especially in the North and little sign of any of the white stuff. Just going to take the charts at face value,and obviously at this range there will be many changes to come,and lets hope so!

Still loads of uncertainty for thursday/friday and probably come down to radar watch. Back to the here and now and looks like a squall line spreading down across the region over the next couple of hours.

It should be getting the hang of it 3 days ahead,or even 2! 3 day.. 2 day! actual..

The GEM does seem to have issues with its 850 hpa temperature predictions as shown below with its chart from 5 days ago and the actual for today. predicted.. actual..

Zonal winds at the top really cranking up in the next few days with around 80 m/s on the cards. As seen in previous years though,these can plummet rapidly. 2011/12.. 2012/13...

Some big clumps of showers heading our way on the radar but struggling to get over to the East which is pretty typical in these situations. Dewpoints are a bit high at the moment,but should fall away through the night so any showers will turn increasingly wintry. There was quite a heavy snow shower this morning up at Consett when i was up at the new Tesco's which is very exposed! edit: sleety rain here at the minute.

Nice upgrade on the FI warming from the GFS 12z,and i would think higher up will be looking very toasty.

No sign of the 00z ECM day 5 secondary LP on this evenings GFS or UKMO.

Still lots of uncertainty regarding that day 5 storm from the 00z ECM,although looking at the postage stamps there are numerous members going for something similar. http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011300!!/

Yes,a light sleety snow shower here at the minute.

I think its more to do with the fact that its one of the very few longer range ECM products which can be seen by everyone,so is tended to be used in winter quite a lot! LOL,i think that's cleared that up then.

The overnight ECM has thrown a spanner in the works at day 5 with a nasty little LP which it deepens markedly,which is in sharp contrast to the GFS. ECM.. GFS.. Sets the alarm bells ringing when this sort of thing pops up in the near timeframe. On another note,can we bring back the santa smilies,if only for nick sussex's sanity.