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Cloud 10

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Everything posted by Cloud 10

  1. Cloud 10
    Maybe just an upgrade to the existing gefs? Unification of analysis ensemble with GEFS ensemble Ensemble resolution increase to T574L64
  2. Cloud 10
    BA means the gefs ensembles
  3. Cloud 10
    Polar vortex having a much tougher time establishing this year compared to 2013. 2013.. 2014.. By this time last year it was already looking very "vortexy" and a fairly rounded shape which is in sharp contrast to this year which looks very dis-organised. Long may it continue.
  4. Cloud 10
    Couldn't help but notice on the twitter page... Ian Brown â€@modernwinter 15h15 hours ago @xSomersetGirlxx @chionomaniac The seasonal models are in full agreement for a mild and zonal winter
  5. Cloud 10
    Shame on you BA.... Certainly some ridiculous autumn temps tomorrow with some last day of October temperature records set to be broken.
  6. Cloud 10
    Interesting looking at the day 10 ensemble mean verification stats which shows them falling through the floor in the last few days. Not sure why the ECM isn't included on those graphs anymore?
  7. Cloud 10
    If the parallel gfs keeps churning out runs like this i can see it becoming rather popular very quickly!
  8. Cloud 10
    The same question remains at day 6 with the old GFS,i wonder if the new and improved GFS will have its bias scrubbed out. ecm.. gfs old..
  9. Cloud 10
    I look forward to the new "super" UKMO model.
  10. Cloud 10
    Surprised there's been no mention of the 12z UKMO.....
  11. Cloud 10
    Some familiar differences between the GFS and ECM operational's at day 7 with the ECM having the more amplified pattern allowing Arctic air to penetrate down into the UK,and the GFS flattening any ridging around the Greenland/North Atlantic region very quickly,so no time for the cold air to spread down. GFS.. ECM.. To amplify or not to amplify,that is the question.
  12. Cloud 10
    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/#entry3059202 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/#entry3059210
  13. Cloud 10
    It's nice to be talking about cross-polar flows,and the 06z gfs is just a slight variation on the general theme from various op runs and ensembles over the last few days. Looks like the roller-coaster may be starting early this year...
  14. Cloud 10
    ECM teasing for a cold bonfire night perhaps? Not a million miles away from the gefs mean posted above.
  15. Cloud 10
    ......and the pub run coming out at 21.30.
  16. Cloud 10
    The ECM ensemble mean really squashing that ridge as we enter November,and looks more unsettled than we have seen for a while.and no doubt cooler to go with it.
  17. Cloud 10
    Assuming the final OPI figure is -2.5 or below then the winter of 2009/10 is still the nearest analogue we have for comparison,so i would expect something along the lines of the below charts for their forecast when released. There is just a chance it isn't that simple however.
  18. Cloud 10
    An absolute snorter from the CFS for December.
  19. Cloud 10
    I've no idea where they were from but it would keep a family of borrowers going for a while!
  20. Cloud 10
    Are they bigger than this beauty i got in a punnet from tesco's?
  21. Cloud 10
    Hola! peborant,welcome to the forum and a nice 1st post.
  22. Cloud 10
    Even the ECM ensemble mean has made a big swing towards the gfs,which means the removal of the purples over Greenland! today.. yesterday..
  23. Cloud 10
    Quite a change in the ECM chart for Saturday on the 12z compared to yesterday with the deep low to the NW much more influential and certainly a leap towards the GFS. today.. yesterday..
  24. Cloud 10
    Large scale differences between the ECM 00z and GFS 06z operational runs at day 7 don't inspire confidence for any week 2 predictions,and as we saw a few days ago ensemble means are not to be trusted either when arctic high's are around,although are still the best guidance we have ! ecm.. gfs..
  25. Cloud 10
    When is this chart valid for? It implies well below normal heights for some of Europe,but when for? With my snow goggles on i see it as an anomaly for winter.
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