Cloud 10

An increasing signal for a spell of stormy weather towards the end of November if the NAEFS and ECM ensemble means are near the mark. naefs.. ecm.. An example from the gfs ensembles.

Liking the sudden drop in zonal wind speeds at the top of the stratosphere between days 4&5,i assume that's a big uppercut from the wave 1 activity? day 4.. day 5..

Just a snapshot of the GFS P at 240 hrs,but shows well what Ian F mentioned earlier about possible stormy conditions with the jet being fuelled by cold air in the Atlantic.

The ensemble mean's are as fickle as the op runs at the moment,with the ECM day 10 being most guilty. yesterday.. today..

That 360 hr ensemble mean chart for the first day of winter will do nicely,and i dare say a decent sized cold pool to our far East.

Can't wait for the GungHo! "In a sense ENDGame finishes the work that New Dynamics started, but the story doesn't end here. Research has already started on the next-generation dynamical core (named GungHo) which we expect to replace ENDGame in about 10 years. GungHo will be part of a completely new model that will deliver the step change in scalability required to continue to exploit future generations of computers. This will ensure that, together with our collaborators, we can continue to improve our weather and climate services into the next decade and beyond."

An unusually precise ECM day 10 ensemble mean this morning with the high centered just NE of the UK feeding in an increasingly cool continental flow. I wonder what those 00z dutch ensembles look like? Plenty of activity on Moscow ensemble watch as well.

How about now?

Well,here comes the GFS P which looks like going down a similar route as the ECM 12z op... ....and there we have it,not often you see that sort of agreement between day 10 operational runs! ecm.. gfs..

The 18z GFS "normal" has spat out an easterly in FI,and it ain't a warm one.

ECM 12z lights the polar fuse at 216 hrs...

The end of November 2005 is a good example of how quickly things can change,as shown in the 3 Northern hemisphere charts below: 20th.. 23rd.. 26th..

Yes,some decent northerlies amongst those ensembles this morning which were distinctly lacking last winter. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-360.png?0 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-5-1-288.png?0 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-17-1-360.png?0 Moscow ensemble watch re-initiated.

Last winter has been banished.

Those temperature anomalies show up well on the ECM 850mb with a small patch of off-the-scale +ve values (black area) west of the pole,and of couse the deep negative values over parts of the USA.

Was just thinking what a strong looking high at 192 hrs on the 18z P around Iceland,which then deflates like a burst balloon two frames later.

The day 10 ECM op run does look out of kilter with the ensemble mean which doesn't happen very often these days. op.... mean.. NOAA seem very confident in the model output in their discussions tonight,and guess who model of the day goes to? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

The CFS brings it in at only 1644 hrs.

I like that! 40% chance for Northern England.

The new met office update for winter seems to continue the same sort of pattern that has been the theme of much of 2014,with a trough just west of the UK giving above average temperatures. Heights.. temps..

Yes indeed,get out of jail,pass go and collect £200 from the GEM this evening. Also some choice cuts from the GEFS 12z ensembles.

Just like the good old days from the pub run this evening,late for work tomorrow i think.

Very tidy ECM 12z ens. mean day 10,and watch out to the NE for those 850 temperature anomalies to turn increasingly blue over the next few days. An early taste of pretty severe cold for the USA coming up this week as well.

Yes,a typical lurch from the GFS over the last couple of days towards the ECM. 120hrs today.. 2 days ago..

Yes,quite old but they seem to use the same codes over the years. Impressive stats if it is the new gefs,although more likely to be on the ensemble verification page?