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Cloud 10

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Everything posted by Cloud 10

  1. Cloud 10
    A bit off topic,but just a heads up for anyone using the meteociel site to view the models this morning as i keep getting a pop-up telling me that i need to update adobe flash player,but this is in fact a computer attack which was blocked by my anti-virus software. I f anyone else gets the Adobe page DO NOT click on anything on it but either close down your browser or restart your computer.
  2. Cloud 10
    Sounds as though the software is set up to reject GFS outliers.
  3. Cloud 10
    The CFS is at it again with northern blocking and a negative AO winter.
  4. Cloud 10
    That's a remarkable statistic considering your location,and it just shows the almost complete lack of Northerly's for last winter. Even in my location which is about 700ft ASL in the NE of England,there were very few days with snow falling and not one day where snowcover lasted all day,which can not have happened many times before.
  5. Cloud 10
    Just thought i would re-visit this post from the start of the month where the ensemble means were in very good agreement on the expected pattern for today,and it seems they gave quite poor guidance compared to the actual chart. Needless to say the op. runs were pretty clueless as well! Just something to remember when there's blocking over the arctic,especially with the silly season fast approaching...
  6. Cloud 10
    Never fear,the CFS is here! Dec. Jan. Feb.
  7. Cloud 10
    I think that ship has sailed.
  8. Cloud 10
    I suppose the only thing which really matters is the final figure at the end of the month. I feel like i'm riding the roller-coaster before the track has been built.!
  9. Cloud 10
    Maybe if it was based on the ECM ensemble mean instead of GFS op runs,things might be a bit smoother,although that would probably rob us of the sub -3 OPI goodness!
  10. Cloud 10
    Great to see the new strat thread,and never to early for wave 1.
  11. Cloud 10
    Check out the GEM! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php
  12. Cloud 10
    You mean -2.0
  13. Cloud 10
    Using BFTV's list of the OPI values,here is a composite anomaly of October's when the OPI was around the -1 mark which is where it currently stands (before the 00z update),and also a composite anomaly for the first week of October this year... this Oct.so far.. ...and now a composite of the winters following October's when the OPI index was around -1...
  14. Cloud 10
    Hopefully it won't end up like the 2013 graph posted above,otherwise Nick Sussex's helpline will be inundated before winter has even begun!
  15. Cloud 10
    Maybe the OPI can be used to forecast November? If so,i look forward to it based on the composite from the 3 years listed above. 500mb.. 850 temps..
  16. Cloud 10
    I see the scale has been adjusted since yesterday to account for the increasingly negative figures.
  17. Cloud 10
    Hopefully we can steer clear of the 1992 OPI ...
  18. Cloud 10
    Speaking of Arctic blocking,anyone have any theories for the very sharp negative plunge in the AO which is imminent?
  19. Cloud 10
    Ensemble means from GFS,ECM and GEM looking very seasonal as we head towards mid-October with the Atlantic trough running the show,so bouts of wind and rain likely with temperatures around average.
  20. Cloud 10
    Was wondering what the H500 anomalies for September looked like but on visiting the reanalysis page i get this: "At this time (2014/09/29), the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis is not being updated at PSD as NCEP has halted their distribution. Any of our products or web-tools that use this data will be impacted. Data will be updated when it becomes available. We have no further information as to when that might be." http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
  21. Cloud 10
    Some pretty spectacular Blocking over Greenland in the mid to later stages of the GFS 06z this morning. Not to be taken seriously at that range of course,but still good viewing.
  22. Cloud 10
    Never to soon for a ramp.
  23. Cloud 10
    I and a few others had thought that the PRHW14 model which appeared on the model verification graphs was an early taster of the upgraded GFS,but it seems that it was some sort of experiment by one of the programmers,although it is probably related in some way. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wd20rt/vsdb/ Hopefully the new "bells and whistles" GFS can improve its verification stats against the all-conquering ECM.
  24. Cloud 10
    Indeed,a late September sizzler from the ECM this evening from 144 hrs onwards... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
  25. Cloud 10
    Quite a large disagreement between the GFS and the UKMO at just 96 hrs this evening,with the UKMO having much more amplification in the jetstream,although could be just a dodgy run? gfs.. ukmo..
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