Cloud 10

2 in a row from the ECM with the PV being squeezed over to the Russian side,should be a good 240 hrs chart.

The 12z GEM is considering the options at 120 hrs...

Is that a northerly on the 12z UKMO?

Looks like another variant of the GFS has been included on the model verification pages which is the PRHW14N. Model performance starting to fall off at the moment,probably due to their difficulties with high pressure over the Arctic,although the ECM seems to be holding its own at the moment.

A good example of the above from the ECM 00z in its last 2 frames with high pressure pulling back into the Atlantic.

Ridiculous differences between the day 7 ECM 12z and the 18z GFS P,may as well be day 77! ecm.. gfsp..

Almost perfect timing for the first day of winter,and would be a lot different to what we have experienced this autumn.

I think Ian means The Euro 4.

....or,the ridge off the Eastern seaboard will join up with the Arctic high,sending a chunk of the vortex towards the UK.

A great forecast with many hours of work put into it and very well explained.

That's quite a run from the 06z GFS P this morning with its "Arctic slice" at 144 hrs and is a country mile away from the UKMO 00z. gfs p.. ukmo.. The models generally have difficulties with high pressure in that region,although they are getting plenty of practice at the moment! The 12z's just got a lot more interesting.

Here's the JMA at 192 hrs to calm your fevered brow.....

Quite a big change over Europe when comparing yesterday's 144 hrs with today's 120 hrs on the 12z gfs. yesterday.. today..

NAEFS still banging the drum for a pattern change upstream in FI,with a strong signal for ridging in the Western Atlantic and the PV locating to Siberia,although the UK still affected by troughing but probably becoming a cut-off feature in time due to lack of reinforcements from the NW. 192 hrs.. 360 hrs... Scanning through the GEFS ensembles reveals member 16 to be a good match for the the anomalies on the NAEFS 360 hrs chart,which certainly has plenty of interest! Obviously its FI and speculation but has been there for a few runs now.

MJO forecast a bit confusing between different models,so use with caution! gefs.. ecm..

It certainly has. Moses himself couldn't part the vortex any wider.

Its okay,the "split" is still there on the gfs 12z so is now guaranteed to happen precisely as shown without any deviation.

Yes,a cracking o6z gfs with the strat cracked open almost from top to bottom.

Yes,seems to be a signal for a significant weakening of the Canadian/Greenland chunk of the PV,which should take the teeth out of any Atlantic attack. 360 hrs away so just something to watch for now.

The latest 120 hrs fax chart looks rather complicated and shows well how the UK is in the battleground between the block to the East and the Atlantic trying to push through from the West.

Very encouraging to see those anomalies over the Mediterranean in the day 10 ensemble means,which as you mention,should diminish those high upper temps and cut off the scandi high,much like the composite from Lorenzo.

The JMA at day 8 looks in the same ballpark as the ECM,although that doesn't exactly inspire confidence!

Lets hope business is good this winter then! Love the new signature Nick,lets hope it can actually be put to use this winter. Speaking of new things,Meteociel now have anomaly charts for the GEFS ensembles. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=240&code=21&mode=5&carte=1

I wonder how well the MOGREPS verifies compared to the ECM ensembles? Like groundhog day watching these scandi height anomalies.

Incredible stuff there,pinched this picture from that thread which sums it up well.