Cloud 10

Down to 6 days now so should be able to make a realistic forecast for Christmas Day. Still looks like a cold Christmas day for the UK,and dry with some sunshine for many,although some wintry showers affecting the North of Scotland and maybe some clipping the east coast of England. At least it will be cold.(probably).

Its a shame you weren't from Gloucester.

Day 10 ECM ensemble mean is virtually a carbon copy of the 00z. :smiliz64:

Not often you see such a difference between day 10 ensemble means when comparing the ECM 00z and GEFS 12z,with the newer GEFS showing the much maligned western based -NAO. ecm.. gefs.. A middle ground solution would do the trick.

Its not all bad news Nick,at least the santa smiley's are back,so take a deep breath,have a brandy,and wait for the ecm ensembles. :smiliz19:

Nick Sussex tirade alert......Nick Sussex tirade alert....... :w00t:

A week to go now..... The GFS still showing a cold Christmas for much of the UK with many parts of Scotland remaining below freezing,and still the best chance of some snow in the far Northeast of Scotland The rest of the country probably cold and dry with some sunshine,although with some rain in the Southwest,and some showers clipping the East coast.

Interesting looking at the 850 temperatures stats as it shows that the GEM does indeed have problems in that department.

Only 8 days to go now,and the tension mounts.........well,not really. A very festive feeling day if this chart were to verify,with a cold Northwesterly flow established across the whole of the uk and some snow in some places,especially in the North and East of Scotland and also for parts of Northwest England with showers coming in off the Irish Sea. Would definitely bank this for a Christmas day chart.

Sounds promising for a white christmas for some of the region going off the latest met-office update. "From Christmas Eve, cold, windy, and showery conditions are expected, the most frequent showers in the north and east, where they are expected to be wintry over higher ground." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Desperate measures by Ian Brown perhaps?

Much good discussion on ensemble mean's and anomaly charts today,so here are a couple from the ECM 12z at 240 hrs. btw,Matt Hugo is on the wind up!!!

Here are the archives for the CPC charts if helpful John. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/srarc.ind.php

9 days to go,will we get snow.......maybe. Today's chart from the GFS very interesting with a Low pressure approaching from the Southwest bringing rain to Southern areas early in the day,but as this moves North and engages the colder air then some snow would be likely over parts of Wales and Northern England especially in the evening and overnight. A very cold day in Northern Scotland as well,with snow showers especially in the Northeast.

An important thing to remember when viewing the CPC charts,especially the 8-14 day,is that it shows the forecasted anomalies for a 6 day period,so can only really be useful at predicting the general pattern for that timescale,and not any real detail,which is where the daily ensemble mean and operational charts come in. Nobody said it was easy though.

Perhaps something like this Nick? 12z GEFS very keen on an eye-brow raising Northerly outbreak in the last week of December. Perhaps we can sneak something in for Christmas day itself.

Down to 10 days out now,so what has the GFS churned out this evening? As hinted at in the post above,quite a change on today's chart from previous offerings with quite an unsettled Christmas day as a cold front heads down from the North with snow on the back edge for some higher parts of Scotland and possibly to lower levels later in the day,although probably just rain for England and Wales. Hopefully this new "trend" will continue tomorrow.

11 days to go...got all your presents yet?....didn't think so. On the face of it,a very similar theme to previous days with high pressure to the south of the UK and a westerly flow with some rain around,especially for Northern and Western areas,however,some cold air would still be in place across the South-East thanks to a Christmas eve Northerly,so a cold and frosty start on Christmas day for some.

He can be found ramping on the previous page.

A calming,measured post as ever Tamara,although vicissitude is a word which doesn't come up very often. Definition of VICISSITUDE 1 a : the quality or state of being changeable : On another note i'm seeing a lot of long range (+360 hrs) ensemble mean anomaly charts being posted on the forum recently,and thanks to some new tools on Meteociel its now possible to pick an individual ensemble member which is a good match for the somewhat diluted ensemble mean chart so as to give a more detailed idea of the possible outcome. So with that in mind here is the +360 hrs (bias corrected) ensemble mean anomaly chart from the 00z GEFS and the ensemble 14 chart for the same time along side. ens.mean.. member 14.. This is the best match i could find amongst the individual ensemble members,and whilst not perfect,the main features are pretty well matched, with a trough in Eastern USA,a ridge in the Atlantic/Southern Greenland and a trough over Western Euriope. Below is the normal H500 chart from ensemble 14 which would would certainly provide plenty of interest for the end of the month! Obviously trying to pin down any detail at that timescale is a very difficult exercise,but it is interesting trying to find an individual chart that best matches those rather vague ensemble means.

I will have to take your word for it DS as that was way back when i thought GFS was a sofa specialist. Would certainly take another Christmas 2004 though. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2004/archivesnh-2004-12-25-12-0.png

I would be staggered beyond belief if it continued counting down with the same consistency shown so far,as well as being continuously irritated by the synoptic's.

The 850mb temperature anomaly for the first 8 days of December also highlights the mainly below average theme so far this winter,and looks like those cold anomalies moving a bit further East as we head into 2015.

12 days to go now,so what has the GFS cooked up for us today? The general trend remains much the same with high pressure to the South of the UK with a fairly mild Westerly flow,although it would be quite a wet day across the North thanks to a frontal system.

Looks like you hit the jackpot there.