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Cloud 10

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Everything posted by Cloud 10

  1. Cloud 10
    Something along these lines perhaps? Happy new year everyone.
  2. Cloud 10
    A slight improvement on yesterday's 168 hrs output,and if nothing else a potent cold pool heading for Eastern Europe which could come in handy down the line. yesterday.. today..
  3. Cloud 10
    The models are clearly struggling to resolve the effect of the zonal wind reversal through the atmosphere in the fairly short term,an example of which shows nicely when comparing today's 12z 144 hrs ECM with yesterday's 168 hrs. today.. yesteday Seems to be a bold prediction that the zonal train will choo choo along till mid-month!
  4. Cloud 10
    Not often you see that much difference between the European models at that timescale,and probably to do with the sudden reversal of zonal winds right through the stratosphere/troposphere. UKMO maybe over-reacting here?
  5. Cloud 10
    Got a thin covering of snow and very icy and crunchy here this morning.
  6. Cloud 10
    The changes in the strat output have been well picked up on in the posts above,but just wanted to highlight the dramatic difference between the last two runs at 10 hpa for the 5th of January. 26th.. 27th.. Not used to seeing that sort of change in the strat output.
  7. Cloud 10
    The "black hole" on the chart in question shows a strong high pressure anomaly ridging towards the Arctic from Alaska. The anomaly is so strong that it goes off the scale and therefore just shows as black. Below is the anomaly chart in question and also the "normal" chart for the same time alongside.
  8. Cloud 10
    Black hole alert on the ECM 12z. Be nice to see it edging towards Greenland in future runs.
  9. Cloud 10
    ECM at 168 hrs raises the bar!
  10. Cloud 10
    Got snow here now as well. Not exactly powder snow,but it is settling.
  11. Cloud 10
    Worth pointing out that there is a substantial warming of the stratosphere (not a SSW) ongoing at the moment and is set to continue for a good while yet. Just posting it here because people often say that these charts are always in FI but never verify.
  12. Cloud 10
    Warning out from the met office now for snow and ice. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1419638400&regionName=ne Showers/trough out in the North sea slowly creeping Westwards. Radar watch in effect. :smiliz19:
  13. Cloud 10
    A decent split in the PV at 192 hrs shown on the 00z NAEFS this morning,with those arctic heights forcing it apart. Could we about to see the AO tanking negative.?
  14. Cloud 10
    You never know Nick,one day +384 hrs might be the reliable timeframe. :w00t:
  15. Cloud 10
    Yes,the Arctic high can be a bit elusive when it comes to actually delivering anything,but i'm willing to give it another try whenever its ready. I suppose we could just not look at the other two runs,but i can't see it happening. Apparently the gefs ensembles are to get an upgrade in a couple of years where they will go out to 720 hrs,and who knows how far the operational's will go out to by then.
  16. Cloud 10
    Well,there does seem to be some decent support from the ensemble means for a developing Arctic high in the medium term,hence the posting of operational charts with a similar theme. gfs p.. gefs..
  17. Cloud 10
    Has The Pit dismantled the shield?.
  18. Cloud 10
    GFS P also going for a nice split in the PV in early FI.
  19. Cloud 10
    Some strong gusts near the South coast at the moment. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/
  20. Cloud 10
    Probably not at the moment,but DP's are set to fall as we head through the night so any showers should become more wintry as the night wears on with possible hail and thunder.
  21. Cloud 10
    North sea showers already getting going and should push further inland as the rain/sleet/snow band clears South.
  22. Cloud 10
    ECM splitting the vortex rather nicely in FI.
  23. Cloud 10
    Didn't look as though it would get this close earlier on,although quite foggy here at the moment.
  24. Cloud 10
    Looks to be some heavy showers coming in off the North sea tomorrow afternoon and evening with a risk of hail and thunder and snow on high ground if they make it far enough inland. Am a bit mystified by this from the met office though. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
  25. Cloud 10
    The GFS 18z "normal" looks fine and dandy.
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