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Stabilo19

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Everything posted by Stabilo19

  1. Stabilo19
    Early summer has been OK with quite a few warm days and one v. hot day down here. We've still got 3 months of potential heat and storms to come so all still to play for.
  2. Stabilo19
    The models were not showing "proper warmth" coming up, just a settled spell with temps a bit above average. A "mediocore 21 degrees" is the average high for Peterborough during early July.
  3. Stabilo19
    I don't think many people are doubting that we will hit 40 degrees in the future, but it's highly unlikely in June. Probably late July or August.
  4. Stabilo19
    We absolutely would not be hitting 40 degrees. The June record is 35 degrees.. Again no, most places have peaked at 32, and the hottest have reached 34, perhaps 35 with verification.
  5. Stabilo19
    The dutch are probably as frustrated as we are with the ICON, with 20+ 850 temps and surface temps barely breaking mid 20s. Hopefully things improve!
  6. Stabilo19
    ICON showing gusty easterly winds for the UK towards the end of the week suppressing temperatures. At least it will be dry and sunny for most:
  7. Stabilo19
    UK: 22 degrees 850 temp = 24 degrees surface temp. Meanwhile.. Sweden: 10 degrees 850 temp = 24 degrees surface temp. France: 26 degrees 850 temp = 40 degrees surface temp. Horrific if it really plays out like that!
  8. Stabilo19
    Tuesday max temps for London: GFS: 29 degrees ARPEGE: 23-24 degrees GEM: 23 degrees NAVGEM: 25 degrees and just for comparison, BBC and UKMO are going for 25-26.
  9. Stabilo19
    Comparing the GFS 00Z to the 06Z in the more reliable time frame: Monday 00Z: Monday 06Z: GFS trending a degree or two warmer in the south, much the same elsewhere, though perhaps a degree or two cooler in parts of the north. Tuesday 00Z: Tuesday 06Z: GFS trending warmer in the south east, with London potentially hitting 30 degrees, but cooler in the north probably with rain/thunderstorms.
  10. Stabilo19
    Even for Paris and northern France, the extreme heat has apparently been watered down and pushed back - more like high 20s, low to mid 30s. This is despite 850 temperatures of 18-26 degrees. So it seems either there will be a lot of cloud and rain over western Europe or ground temperatures will be higher than forecast.
  11. Stabilo19
    No, it probably won't reach the very hot category this week, but 30 degrees in late June sunshine will feel hot to most people in the UK.
  12. Stabilo19
    True, I don't think we can trust much beyond Tues - Wed!
  13. Stabilo19
    GFS 06Z raw data for Saturday has 29 degrees for London. I don't think the record (35.6) will be broken at this rate.
  14. Stabilo19
    With a few days still to go, it's definitely possible that a slight change in wind direction could lead to widespread mid 30s (even upper 30s) in the south of the UK. It seems like the June Paris maximum temperature record of 37.6 degrees will probably be broken Thurs - Sat.
  15. Stabilo19
    Seems like the heat might be further west than we're normally used to. BBC forecast for London shows near normal summer weather for the capital.
  16. Stabilo19
    850 temps are consistently being modeled as upper teens/low 20s, but surface temps have been massively watered down for London. A few days ago the raw data was suggesting temperatures of 31-33 degrees for London throughout the upcoming week. GFS 00Z raw data now suggesting average summer weather of 21-24 degrees for London.
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