ChannelThunder
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Posts posted by ChannelThunder
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:
Wednesday looks quality down your way though so at least there is hope
Good to hear, thanks mate! Need to go check the models and see if the MCS is still on for the night time, seen a couple of people here saying it's 'on again' after your post this morning saying it looked dead!
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Got a heavy downpour basically one mile to the north right now, the sky is dominated by it, yet it still refuses to rain here! Yet another downpour this month that's passed within miles.
This village surely belongs in SE Essex for the amount of rain it gets!
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Lovely dark base to the south east of here now, unexpected! Radar looks good too
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Interesting comparing AROME 6z run with the current radar at this time; I'd say it's pretty much identical, so maybe that's going to end up being the best-performing model this week for the day-to-day details!
That run also develops cells just north of me (typical) in the middle of the night tonight, swinging them through West-Mids and Wales into the early morning.
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Well, we've got some towers bubbling away here, probably the most that's going to happen this far south!
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3 minutes ago, whitty-southwest-uk said:
Looking good for sure
Can't beat a lovely clear, bubbly, brilliant white tower like that against a blue sky!
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11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Tomorrow is a slap on the face for anyone in the south. Not sure why it matters as our forecasts are always wrong anyway
If Tuesday-Thursday fails to deliver anything, 'gutted' will be putting it lightly for me!
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4 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:
This lot Dieppe to Pontivy looks good. Imports anyone?
They're moving way too slowly to make it over I would say, and if they're surface-based, the channel will kill them in no time
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I wouldn't normally post a Weather for the Week Ahead video in here, but here's Tomasz's take on what should be quite a convective one:
Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather
WWW.BBC.CO.UKThere are some parts of the UK which have had more rain this month than the whole of spring and there are further showers and thunderstorms to come in the week ahead.-
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Good to see some cross-model agreement for the MCS @Paul Sherman mentioned for midweek.
It'll definitely be the far South's turn for some fun by then, if it even comes off of course!
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1 minute ago, Azazel said:
Holy Moly a convective cloud in Hampshire heading this way.
Still barren on this side of Hampshire, don't you worry!
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Radar looking good 50 miles to both my east and west...meanwhile this area has a stream of light showers heading in...typical
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Lightning maps is having a stinker for me. It's miles behind Blitz on that W Kent storm
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Watching the satellite south of Le Harve with interest. There's growth there, and while not especially spectacular, that would seem to be the area to keep an eye on if you're also in CS England.
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Skies much more bubbly now, how it's changed since this morning!
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16 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:
Oh, is he? I didn't know that. I haven't seen him post yet though
He posts on here under the username staplehurst
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:
Thing is Harry you just know when its a decent feel for storms and I have not felt that once yet this Spring early Summer APR/MAY/JUNE - The air feels like Mid April. I dont doubt it will heat up but no mugginess really worries me although it sounds like if you have not got this cool breeze from the SE and further Inland some posters have said it feels humid. East Midlands has a 60f dewpoint where Manston is only at 50f and thats all you need to know really. I think Arome is out of line with most other models and will reign it in on the 06z and 12z runs more in line with others. UKV not really interested in anything apart from West of London up through Oxfordshire now so would expect the zone of Initiation over London and Surrey and anywhere North and West from there could catch an evening Thunderstorm today.
Best of Luck to everyone and somebody will luck out
The skies aren't particularly encouraging either, all I'm seeing so far today is low, messy, fast-moving cumulus and some cirrus above it.
If humidity increases and some more unstable skies move in, things might look and feel a little more promising.
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So, AROME brings in a band of possible storms a good few hours ahead of UKV/Met Office graphics. It looks far more intense on the former, but the timing of the latter is better and might even allow for some night time lightning photography...
Guess it's radar watching for the rest of today!
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:
Looks promising! Fingers crossed for more support for this in the morning. Night!
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24 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:
Just
You can see a shower south of the IOW from Kent? Highly doubt that!
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Going a little off-topic and ahead in time; next Weds/Thurs and to a lesser extend Tues, look good on the latest ECM for home grown heavy showers/storms, still from this same LP, as it slowly fills over S UK.
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1 minute ago, Charlie Harnett said:
Ah, yes they have disappeared now
Sounds about right. I've been using that site for many a year and it's always had a knack for doing that
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2 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:
Should I trust lightning maps? A lot of strikes are showing but no clue if they are real
If they are lone strikes, away from known storm activity, then they're almost always false. You'll probably find they disappear in five mins or so; it seems to have some kind of AI that realises false strikes and removes them.
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That Belgium storm would take at least 12 hours from now to even reach our shores
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Certainly enjoying this one, although it's probably drunk. Still, we can dream.