ChannelThunder
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Posts posted by ChannelThunder
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12 minutes ago, Harry said:
Noting all the comments re morning storms. I am so storm starved I’ll take anything I can get right now
Same. Here's hoping a nighttime plume event is just around the corner regardless of what happens Thursday!
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Well, that's Thursday booked as leave from work. Might be hitting the road early and home by mid-afternoon looking at the timings!
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12 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:
Hey Ian,
Alexander Palace is a great vantage point in North London, along with the Walthamstow Marshes area in the North East. The marshes more if you're looking East rather than across the city-scape.
Good to know, thank you! Thinking I might end up further north than that, but that'll be dependent on the forecasts and outlooks by our experts!
Also, my username did kind of look like it said Ian, so I've changed it...thanks for bringing that to my attention even though you didn't mean to! Haha
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Very tempted to book Thursday off work and take a drive to the other side of London Only a couple of hours away with the current emptier roads. Is East England good for chasing? Nice and flat obviously, but where are the best vantage points?
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21 minutes ago, Harry said:
BBC obviously thinking that the clearance of the instability will take longer - Darren Bett funnily enough mentioned this last week, that models have a tendancy to shunt Highs eastward more quickly and therefore speed up breakdowns. It wouldn’t surprise me therefore if they are favouring a slower breakdown and hence the emphasis more for Friday. I personally will take a slower breakdown as I have Friday off
Me too! Thursday morning is no good for anyone who has a 9-5 job! If this could all be delayed until Thursday night, that'd be ideal!
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Yeah, really don't take percentages literally at all, especially 3 days out. Also, GFS is a low-res model.
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19 minutes ago, Zak M said:
Storm risk map is an eye-opener:
Wow, GFS definitely upping the game now. Not sure on that timing though, it's got them first developing at 6am, so it must be seeing some elevated potential. If it could bring it forward by 6 hours so I can get some night time photos, I'd be delighted!
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1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:
12z GFS please bring us goodness...
Doesn't look like a good one for us storm lovers. A slight chance in the east on Thurs
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Looking at the models, I think I'm inclined to reluctantly join the 'no plumes this May' club.
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27 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:
Everyone go check the latest NetWx MR Model for Thursday... Plume with 600-1000j/kg and and 30-45kts of DLS with a 90mph upper trough and 45mpg LLJ. Literally my dream setup but I'm not sure it's going to happen
Sounds....tasty!
My version of that model only goes up to midnight Tuesday night, so guessing I'd need to be a sub to view any further
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1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:
Looking at the sky seeing some cirrostratus, cirrus, flattened cumuls, cumulus and a cloud that looks like a tornado on it's side; expecting some stratus, altocumulus, altocumulus floccus, statocumuls and cumulonimbus clouds soon
Huh?
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So, is that twice in 24 hours that GFS has hit us with the same bullseye low pressure, only for it to disappear completely on the next respective run?
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Latest GFS run looks nice and thundery late next week. It's overdone these cut off lows in the past though, so I'm off to grab a very large pinch of salt
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32 minutes ago, convector said:
Does anyone know why storms happen less often now i.e. less plume events in the last decade or so? (or at least point me in the right direction to find out)
Whatever it is, it needs to do one!
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55 minutes ago, viking_smb said:
i think xanderp009 is a tad excited about storms, for info there will be no storms this weekend.
Aren't we all this season needs to deliver, especially for all those unable to go over to the Alley!
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58 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:
Just was about to Say.
Not sure what's going on there, as we're right underneath HP during the weekend according to both GFS and ECM
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Not expecting any storms today, however it's notable how unstable the skies look this morning. Currenty they're full of Ac Cas, pretty chunky too!
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Hope somebody in Wales/the Midlands has some fun today!
It's a shame this damn northerly is going to prevent would could have been a good plume opportunity coming up from the south. I can't stand northerlies in the winter, but this is the first time in a while I've really had to dislike one in BST!-
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I reckon the first plume will be around the 24th May.
Really hoping for a thundery June, like in 2014 I think it was. Junes since then have generally been barren for storms IIRC.-
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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Certainly looks that way @summer blizzard. Could be a cool high next week, if that’s your kind of thing.
Just as an aside - I had a twitter argument with some guy who claimed that the weather in April had been oppressive and hard to sleep in at night. When I pointed out the ‘warmest’ night in his location was 11c in April, and that humidity had been low due to the dominant dry easterly airmass, he wouldn’t have it.
Seriously though. If you think 21c in April with nights down at 9-11c is uncomfortable then you’ve got issues. I’m sorry but that just isn’t hot, or oppressive. Rant over
Wow, seriously?? He should try Gambia in wet season, I managed to sleep in 100% humdity with mins of 28C at 4am. Worth it for the storms of course!
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27 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:
lots of rising here looking good
For storms? No chance in Kent, sorry.
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It looks as if both ECM and GFS develop the same plume next weekend, although the former brings in that horrible northerly and helps keeps the plume squished down in France.
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14 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Everythings a Supercell
You guys do know whats needed to actually make a Supercell ??
Seriously not everything is a supercell because it has a white core on radar
Glad you said it, because I was going to if not
They're so rare in the UK, not even sure when we last had one.
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3 minutes ago, Windblade said:
Yeah, just the shape of it looked kinda mothershipish. Fantastic looking scenes all the same. I love a good beach storm. Saw a brilliant one down in dover in the early 00's I'll never forget. Fork lighting, LOUD thunder, the lot.
Yep, by the seaside is the best place to be for a storm! Especially those plume MCSs, like in my profile picture, which was taken off the coast of Hampshire.
A nice storm has just fired in the Gatwick area, I think that's the second one they've had there today. My area would now seem to be out of the game for any convective action, as pressure slowly increases through the afternoon from the west-
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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Supercells the size of the UK? The hail core alone would be the size of Scotland!