ChannelThunder
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Posts posted by ChannelThunder
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26 minutes ago, Azazel said:
You couldn’t buy a storm in CS England.
Yep! This is why I'm pessimistic about the coming days. Saturday could be fun for some, but it looks like you'd need to be 100 miles north of us!
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3 minutes ago, jake44 said:
guys any thunderstorm for ramsgate tonight ?
As much chance as the rest of us (except some parts of the west) so about 0.5%
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4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!
Even the worst summers for storms have some kind of decent plume at some point. July 15th - 31st being the most likely time for it.
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Starting to wonder if this weekend will deliver at all. Models have been downgrading the influence of this LP for the last couple of days. I can no longer see much of a thundery spell at all before a more westerly flow takes over again.
If I can take any positives, then GFS still looks good for a little later next week, but that's so far away in model terms!
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What looked like a deluge in the models the other day has once again petered out to a few spots of rain in Hampshire in reality. Fast heading towards a drought situation in this part of the country I'd say. I'm desperate to see some actual rain!
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Threatening thundery skies around here right now and some light rain. Obviously I'm not expecting anything more than that, but it's not surprising given how humid it was on my lunchtime walk and how the cumulus was towering
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06z GFS still looking promising convection wise.
And what's that sneaking into the SE corner from France late on Friday night?
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25 minutes ago, Zak M said:
One time when I was in Florida I checked the BBC Weather app for there and it placed a thunderstorm icon for every single hour of a few days
Same here for when I visited Gambia in the wet season! It was forecasting them constantly.
The reality was around half a dozen immense storms in the 14 days I was there. 98% of the time it was dry and sunny.
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3 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:
There was a discussion on here a while ago about how the 'lightning' symbol is triggered and it is far more than just a change to Meteogroup. From what I can remember it never used to show the symbol until you were pretty much being struck and never picked up elevated storms. Plenty more knowledgeable on here will be able to give you the details.
The whole Met Office / Meteogroup thing re BBC is a load of tosh and actually demeans the qualified meteorologists that present the BBC forecasts. Apps are just that - computer generated and should be viewed as such.
Meanwhile I'm quite enjoying this doom ridden, trough dominated week with temps of 19C and 21C for the last two days. As Flash Bang says, by all means look at FI, and even comment on what it shows, but please don't make statements like we are 'locked in' and 'nothing positive this month' when it will change by the morning. I know some do it to wind people up but what does that achieve ?
Agreed - this is why I prefer to watch the BBC/Met Office forecasts via TV/Youtube than view their location-based app forecasts. Their respective apps often don't even line up with the more detailed overview and thoughts of the meteorologists themselves!
Interestingly, although I've 'mocked' the appearance of the lightning symbol for 7 hours in the post above, for the April 2018 plume event down here, the BBC's location forecast for Southampton was the only one (that I know of) showing storms a something like a week before the event. This shows that, albeit rarely, it can be onto something!
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6 minutes ago, Harry said:
Mine is showing a couple of thunderstorm icons too! Sunday and Wednesday. While I’m not keeping my diary free for anything as yet, I am liking the general trend towards a more humid unstable setup.
Right on cue, here's a classic BBC move since partnering with Meteogroup:
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2019 gets a bad press, but down here in the south I don't remember much in the way of unsettled weather, so it seemed pretty decent to me. Not so in terms of storms though, that one disappointing plume in July left a lot to be desired.
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8 hours ago, Zak M said:
Not too sure what this weather app is on but I’m liking it!
Ha! What a load of nonsense!
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From memory, I seem to recall a few low pressures taking this track down the years, so this one doesn't strike me as all that bizarre, but unusual, yes.
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Some more very encouraging model runs today for us storm fans. Next weekend onward could be interesting. Everything crossed for a few days of humid, stormy fun.
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2 minutes ago, John90 said:
That's how i'd use it but some seem to think that's its entirely different. As if it isn't formed of a bolt. Another one is heat lightning which is slightly different.
I find weather misunderstandings and myths really interesting. Often get told off for correcting people who really don't care.
Ah I see! Yeah that'd annoy me too.
There's a video of a crazy strobing storm in Florida from around a week ago on YouTube. You'd have a field day in the comments section. 10% of the comments are sensible, but the rest consist of the storm being 'unnatural', created by 'HAARP', or religious nonsense, and a hell of a lot of comments calling it 'heat lightning'. Then, on top of all that, there's a tonne of people asking why there's no thunder (despite the storm clearly being many miles away), and others replying to them claiming it's normal to have no thunder with heat lightning.
I despair!
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43 minutes ago, John90 said:
Hope everyone enjoyed the storms yesterday. Some great pics on twitter of the storms rolling across central London.
Scrolling through social media two things bother me.
1. Why are people shocked to see hail at this time of the year? There seems to be a misconception that it should only happen in winter.
2. Sheet lightning. It surprises me how many people believe that it exists.
Isn't that just a layman's term for IC lightning? Its use doesn't bother me.
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7 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:
Please can I ask what article you’re referring to? Apologies but I seem to have missed something interesting.
Look for the post from 80sWeather from around 3 hours ago, I believe that's the link being referred to
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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:
I HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS BEFORE
WTFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
You can't be telling me it's better than those storms in Florida!?
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Fingers crossed for today Supacell. So far we've had about 3 raindrops over the last few days around here, so I'm sure the rain-shield will once again send everything to the west and east of here again, like with yesterday's showers
Flicking through GFS and ECM this morning is interesting for potential going into next weekend. ECM does the unthinkable and sends an MCS directly westwards out of Benelux, taking it across most of southern England! So yeah, I doubt that'd ever happen in reality
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Looking at the radar, it seems I'm too far west for the flow of showers to come over this way. The drought continues!
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Those SPC outlooks would be filling me with excitement if, like last year, I was out there right now! There are some glorious northern plains chase opportunities there.
Looking at this stuff only makes the itch to get back out there next year stronger! Fingers crossed.
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8 minutes ago, Jamiee said:
I wish we could accurately predict thunderstorms 9 days away. In reality, bugger all is going to happen & it's going to be dry. I'd bet on that.
Me too. Never trust a 6+ days out 'plume' on a model. It only ever lets you down.
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The next hot spell, after the next 2 weeks of cooler and cloudier conditions have passed.
Date wise, I'll go 24th June
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40 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
In fact, any rain (in the south) looks very hit and miss. Gone are the 100mm washout charts.
There's a surprise! The ground here was barely dampened by the 'rain' yesterday. I'd be willing to bet that'll be the case for the foreseeable, despite the doom and gloom chat in the last 24 hours about the models!
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Lance M
We have our first line of development of the day, stretching from London into Kent. For once, it's on target to hit my area around early lunchtime!
Edit: sferics now coming from it over the Croydon area