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Beanz

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, weathercold said:

    And the reality is that won’t cut it for most. That high could likely sit over us for days eating away winter or sink. We are now at the critical juncture of winter and we need results soon. I’m all for hyping cold and snowy charts if I see them, just don’t at the moment.

    Well, this is model output not a weather menu 😉

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Beanz

    6 minutes ago, weathercold said:

    A UK centred high doesn’t cut it for many - most want proper winter in the heart of winter - with snow. Current projections aren’t looking likely. 

    A UK centred high can produce some quite cold and frosty weather, very much typical of winter - I think the models have been favouring that solution for a few days but for some unknown reason it’s been largely ignored.  Sometimes I wish people would accept the model output for what it is, not trying to bend it towards something they want.  

    After a period of cold, possibly a bit anticyclonic weather there is nothing to say things won’t move favourable from there.  

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, johncam said:

    Exactly no sign of anything in the reliable other than our normal winter weather. Rain   some snow on nothern hills,a frost if you are lucky🙄

    There’s plenty of stuff in the reliable, just not the weather you want.  Other than that, the models are still kicking out and that’s the reason we’re here 👍🏻

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 hours ago, danm said:

    After countless times being burned over many, many years, I’ve learned that whilst I still pay attention to what’s being shown beyond 4 or 5 days ahead, I do not get in the slightest bit excited by cold and/or snowy charts at that range any longer. For all the advances in NWP, it is still the case that nothing is remotely guaranteed until we get to within about 96 hours. Too many small variables affect our chances here in the UK, any one of those can change at any point until 4 or so days away that makes the whole set up crash down like a pack of cards. 

    It’s the price we pay for our geographical location! 

    Absolutely! Nothing more ridiculous than people posting 300hr precip and snow accum charts - and the same people still do it every year. 

    • Like 9

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Vikos said:

    So? Than it’s defined if I can BBQ in shorts and Flipflops? If yes, last Xmas was very wintry for me…

    No, and besides December is one of the 3 coldest months of the year, so it’s very much a winter month.  Had half the amount of sunshine when compared to March - how else would define a winter month? 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, Jacob said:

    I’m loving the trend so far. We could actually get some extreme snow for once! I would love it if it could a tad colder and further south so the SE can get some of the snow instead of boring old cold rain

    Looking at the models…I’m not sure what trend is pointing to any extreme snow, more like seasonal and wintry for a few days, with the Atlantic still hanging about to provide some challenge.  

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

    Across the models that has been the trend though. It's a bit disappointing  how it just topples right in time for Christmas.  I hope there would be some snow about beforehand  at least.

    There are trends, but the longer those time periods which you’re analysing the tends within extend, the less reliable or ‘probable’ they become. 

    A wise man once said in a model output discussion: 

    “The stronger the desire to see snow on the horizon, does not bring clouds to the sky, rather it brings clouds to one’s judgement of the models”

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Bricriu said:

    Well it looks  nailed on to be dry  looking at the lastest output for after mid month. After three days of non stop rain and gloom,  I am  looking forward to some dry weather again. Cold and snow would be a bonus. Hopefully the UKMO and ECM will follow the GFS in future runs, but as a poster said cold rarely comes in sooner than anticipated,  so it could be see a colder turn the far side of Christmas. At least we are in the game for  a white Christmas.  It must be 19 years since I last had one. Come on 2023 deliver one!

    Nothing is EVER nailed on at that range, come on.  

    Winter driving advice after the deep snow in the Lake District

    in Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

     I used to have a Lexus LS400 25 years ago with winter tyres on and that got through deep snow and it was rear wheel drive. A lot boils down to driver ability too,

    My wife drives a 2022 Suzuki Vitara Hybrid 4X4 .

    And I drive a 2022 Subaru Outback Wilderness both cars are outstanding. 

    Staying at home obviously helps but not everyone can.

    Take  care beanz,  I'm personally looking forward to the next cold 🥶 spell.

    So you drive 2 4x4 vehicles…it seems you DO agree with me in practice, if not in in theory 😉

    Winter driving advice after the deep snow in the Lake District

    in Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    Disagree you can be a work when the snow and ice arrives , or wake up in the morning , just saying generally winter tyres make the difference between getting stuck and not. Not everyone has a 4x4.

     

     

    Disagree with what?  I got stuck overnight on the M11 - I had winter tyres on the car, it didn’t help me.  Staying home or at work, would have helped me.  A 4x4 with appropriate tyres, would have helped me.  

    Winter tyres are great, but in a foot of snow your average saloon car will still get stuck, no matter what tyres it has on.

     

     

    Winter driving advice after the deep snow in the Lake District

    in Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Posted

    8 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

    4 winter tyres fitted to cars makes all the difference between getting stuck and not getting stuck, anyone YouTube winter tyres Vs all season tyres. 

    The best advice is not to go out in the car if the snow is a foot deep.

    Winter tyres are great, but they won’t stop you getting stuck if the cars in front are blocking the road.  

    A car capable of navigating off the road with AT tyres is far more useful in this weather. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

    Sorry to be the Grinch but isn’t it hilarious how tv news are headlining ‘up to 2cm in parts of Scotland’. 😂 I’ve scoured all the charts and there’s no snow for 95% of the population. Tomorrow it’s rain and drizzle and by Sunday it’s rain for most. This is a a couple of days of frosts not a severe cold spell as some people would have you believe !  High res UKV for tomorrow and Sunday below. 

    F8FE5D46-7106-46BC-9A55-C6A8F1384AF7.jpeg

    94424973-882E-46A3-83FA-6C8C86916CFE.jpeg

    Oh there’s plenty of snow I can assure you.  Not sure which ‘snow charts’ you refer to, but they were wrong.    

    2cm and counting…. 

    • Like 4

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

    Also, last December the models predicted a breakdown to occur 3 days later than the beeb and the beeb adjusted and extended cold spell at the last minute. Models sometimes come up trumps

    You realise that the models are used by almost all forecasting agencies?  What you describe is not a remarkable coincidence, it’s normal procedure. 

    • Like 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

    Does it bother anyone else when many tv weather reports say degrees rather than degrees Celsius which is what they mean. BBC do it all the time, international viewers must think we are Baltic when reporters are saying for example ‘it’ll be 5 degrees’ rather than saying it’ll be 5 degrees Celsius  which is the correct term ie 41 degrees farenheit, it really is irritating to me as 5 degrees is -15c 

    We should do away with Celsius and use Fahrenheit only in my opinion.

    I doubt it bothers anybody really, unless you were born before the 1950s in the U.K.  

    Pretty much the entire world uses Celsius, so any international viewers watching the U.K. weather (can’t be many) are likely to be very familiar with Celsius being the international standard of temperature measurement.  The US is the obvious deviation, but why should the rest of the world change to accommodate them? 
     

    IMG_2734.thumb.webp.4327a19aa53c5b496f54892efc9578a9.webp

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