Beanz
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Posts posted by Beanz
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1 hour ago, AdrianHull said:
Quite a few "told you so statements this morning in here" If you bang the drum long enough guessing a return to mild you will eventually get that moment
After last nights great charts a backtrack was to be expected but that tide will come back in again for the cold. So much to play for and a lot to look forward to in the next 3 or 4 days
I hate to say it, but you appear to be the one banging the drum with a clear bias for a particular type of weather this morning.
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9 hours ago, Aiden2012 said:
Nah snow
for me and many others hopefully
I’m not sure about that, it’s definitely more likely to be rain.
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9 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
Yep I’ll take that
Flooding..??
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14 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:
The thing I find on this forum is that given how obviously experienced some posters are why are we seeing comment like “looking at the ECM 168 chart we are losing height over Greenland so there only one way it’s going from there”
Having been a long time Lerner there is quite a bit I’ve picked up.
1. How often is a chart correct at 7 days out?
2. Once the cold air is established the models always underestimate the strength of the block.
3. The models are making big changes currently as early as T+ 24 to 48.
All the models are currently showing variations of the SAME TREND. I appreciate people are just describing what a certain model is showing but more if a balance would be more respected.
I don’t mean to gripe but can be frustrating when reading comment like this. Look peeps it’s turning colder and possibly even colder with snow possibilities for most towards the end of next week so why not enjoy what appears to be coming rather than looking for the end. Fir most is not about perfection but just the hope of snow
It’s a frustration many of us share. Just block the members that post junk, and focus on those who are posting more sensible content - it makes this board a LOT more useful, particularly at this time of year
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55 minutes ago, weathercold said:
Very much in line with what I stated yesterday despite being dismissed by many.
This is no deep freeze, chilly spell and relatively short in duration then back to mild, nothing out of the ordinary.
I agree with this, and it’s a level-headed approach to interpreting the MO. It’s fun watching people posting snow depth charts 5/6 days away, but we all know they’re pointless at that point.
The models are certainly suggesting some chilly weather over the course of and later into next week, but any wintry showers will likely be wet and probably quite unremarkable, even in in this day and age
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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:
I'm not convinced the uppers are being modelled correctly as yet, it's often the case as a cold spell gets closer the forecast uppers change, sometimes for colder, but also sometimes warmer. Let's just get the conditions in, then we'll see what the uppers are.
That’s a very good point!
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I’m not entirely convinced we’ll have anywhere near the depth of cold to overcome moderate uppers
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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
You’re quoting these runs as if they are correct, they could all flip colder next run!! They are obviously struggling with the set up still!!
Highly unlikely. This is classic GFS climbdown to something which the others have realised is more likely.
Looking forward to something nice and seasonal in the coming days though, what’s not to like!
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This is only one model run flip by the ECM, beyond the reliable.
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4 minutes ago, Don said:
Yes, all that severe cold obviously made you hibernate without realising!! You missed a real cracker of a 62/63 redux winter!
If that happened to anybody, it would be me - like realising you washed a winning lottery ticket
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3 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:
As someone said yesterday you can’t ignore the trend it’s your friend
I used to believe this, but now I’m not so sure. If you follow a trend, eventually it will change and you’ll be stuck wearing the wrong t-shirt.
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March, April and May?…have I fallen asleep and missed Winter..?
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2 hours ago, Jeremy Shockey said:
ECM 12z ensemble mean
Not much to be gleaned from the ensemble mean at the moment but one to watch over coming days. Op a bit on its own at the end
I would say that’s a decent trend for this time of year, I’ll happily take that
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3 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:
Going to throw in the CFSv2 again. Here are the 700mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies.
December has a mild theme to it for definite. That looks like the right setup to draw in a lot of south-westerly influence.
January looks worse on the 700mb heights, but the temperature anomaly is a little lower.
Still nothing useful from a blocking perspective in February either. Perhaps less mild as there is a bit more blocking but it's on the wrong side of Greenland to deliver much for us.
March sees the blocking finally get going. Result, a month showing up as average temperature wise, which is rare to see on the CFS. Probably enough for some decent cold spells especially in the early part of the month. As the month progresses any remaining chances of getting cold fade away.
For completeness sake, April still shows a very blocked pattern, and looks quite cool for the time of year.
Overall, has to be said not a promising outlook. I do wonder whether this could be another pot of gold at the end of the rainbow situation - chasing cold charts that never really materialise and are constantly a couple of months away.
In my view, it's better to have low expectations, that way you're unlikely to be disappointed!
Good job it’s just the CFS I suppose, otherwise I’d be concerned
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1 hour ago, sundog said:
If not Jan then maybe Feb lol. The carrot dangling on a stick all winter. Before we know it, it will be March .
Shall we start a Winter 2024/25 thread now?
*joking, I’m not a ‘winter is over’ kinda person
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1 hour ago, TROY said:
Looking ahead to winter, one thing is for sure with the sea temps being so much above normal, any marginal snow/rain events will bring rain. So we can look forward to mainly mild or warm spells with nil snow and probably little frost in the ground.
Why? Are you forecasting that we will have more marginal events then?
Warmer sea surface temps don’t automatically mean warm spells either do they?
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
I think too much emphasis is being put on El Niño, it doesn’t impact the UK weather directly and even if it does, it’s impact is very small.
I’d go one further, a couple of cold spells with some snow on the ground won’t be the result of El-Nino. And a decent winter is often judged, here at least, by conditions and short spells of weather that are not always a general seasonal pattern.
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15 hours ago, Ricardo23 said:
Im actually looking for trends thats a large timescale 173 years , Believe me i like cold Winters but thats just a little experiment i looked into dont take it as gospel , and looked on the history of Winters on this site .
I don’t suppose anybody will take it as gospel. Pattern matching is pretty useless.
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Ours went on for a bit today. I don’t feel so bad using it more willingly in this new house, all well insulated and energy efficient, so will be interesting to see how it compares in cost to our last place (300 year old drafty place with log burners and a 20 year old oil fired boiler)
I do miss chopping logs though..
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5 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Mushy classified this summer as more or less an average summer with June and July cancelling each other out basically.
Stop banging on about what Mushy said, it’s not the final word in what summer was or wasn’t to all people. Please.
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1 hour ago, LRD said:
Yes, people can post views as they see fit but aren't those views, posted on a public internet forum, allowed to be challenged by others with a different view, too?
I don’t disagree with that.
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7 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:
There is a difference between opinions and facts. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and value judgements, but what nobody is entitled to do is to expect to say things that are flat out wrong, and expect nobody to say anything in response.
'All the seasonal models predicted a hot summer and its been nothing but cold' is a statement of fact, not an opinion, and it happens to be an incorrect one.
Thanks, I’m already aware of the difference.
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6 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
People posting unsubstantiated claims with no statistical support here and wanting a dig at stuff, they should read the sensible post mushy made in one of the posts written in the historic weather section. People should use stats rather than memory and to be honest the summer we had this year overall was pretty average really overall, warmer than average though CET/UK wise.
You’re becoming quite repetitive. People can post their views as they see fit, and not everything must be backed up by statistics - this is a discussion forum, not a scientific thesis.
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43 minutes ago, RJBingham said:
18c on the 24th of October BANK
Not sure I understand why, that looks pretty strange for mid-Autumn to me…
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Remember, not everybody judges how good a winter time model run is by the occurrence of synoptics that might deliver snow. Just because a model run is less favourable for a decent dumping of snow, it doesn't mean it's a downgrade for all folk. The models cater for all shapes and sizes
Snow is great, I love it, but I would also be quite happy with a very cold, frosty, icy week of weather too.