[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Main front can now be seen on radar below Brest. We can now watch where it goes, fingers crossed time.

Alexis do you think Kent will see anything? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, SilverWolf said:

Interesting reading the thread.. Sure posts reflecting what some of the models are suggesting are being posted as is… but the big variation in possibilities are reflected in the posts. Very interesting times ahead, even this week (Wednesday still has interest in the south, and that’s not IMBY as it’s pretty unlikely for me). For the last week, and going forward, this has been a fascinating model watch for some years, even for someone like me who relies on the knowledge of others.  

That includes myself so yes it is interesting to find out what people can see in the model outputs 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, throwoff said:

Seen it more than a couple of times. 50 miles is next to nothing in terms of systems of this size.

Got to hope it tracks further north for us to benefit from it

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Indeed.. could go to the wire this one.  I've seen 50 miles shift on the day when comparing radar against what is forecasted t +0

I note with interest where you are situated wud ukv be a good model to use? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

All it takes is another 50 mile shift North and we're on the verge of a very significant snow event.

That would bring southern counties into play for sure. Important run coming up for gfs 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Awaiting the gfs/ecm 6z on this .

What are your thoughts as things stand on the models. Bbc forecast has it that it will clip Kent. I live in herne bay near Canterbury? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Encouraging. As I said (but post now moved) it’s the 1st official day of our arctic outbreak, and I’ve already had an unexpected dusting!.. on we roll the gfs 6z will be interesting for possible upgrades in placements.

Hopefully that low into Southern counties has anyone looked yet to see if it will clip Kent? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Lol not down here, but I don't mind it going a little further north as long as I don't get rain while everyone else has snow again pmsl. The models today are really keeping us on our toes.

I reckon it will be cold rain for us if we see any precip at all  that's what the latest charts are saying 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

The Beeb have the whole of the S Coast getting Snow, probably as far North as 20 miles inland 

Not what I saw on the latest bbc  forecast with Stav. Missing the south completely. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Weeks of potential has turned into a week of cooler than average conditions and frost. I fear many people will feel exactly the same. Been well and truly taken up the garden path once again. 

I agree. Seems we have been chasing this cold spell for ever and a day and when it gets here... Zippo

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, That ECM said:

Track still not decided as expected.

Hopefully something for us snow starved southerners 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Squashed quickly though 

Looking good for us in the North Kent coastal area 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Good on ya Matt. Always a dose of positivity from you, even through some tough times for you.

I find the chase fascinating but I also find myself marveling at the futility of it. In the end, the weather will do what it wants.

Raise a glass to your dad tonight pal.

 

Yes cheers to that! X

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

16 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Mate I'd bank one of them if I could 

Showers or troughs very rarely make it down this far and if  they do either peter out or become weaker 

I agree like gold dust 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

10 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Looks like the GFS OP run still has the low further North than the ensemble pack next week as it is at the high end of temps for the South, the mean 850s a good couple degrees lower on the 6z run compared to the 0z run as well so the South shifts continue.

Is that good for where we live 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Love that 18 January snow spike 🌨

And the one on 22nd looks alright too! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Let’s hope this evenings ECM is kind to us down South in lowland. Need 850’s of below -2c as a max, but ideally -5c and below.

Most charts are showing south within those limits throughout as far as I can see 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is incredibly good again..

Looks like a scorpion with a potently cold stinger lol

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not a time to be flippant. There’s a lot riding on that bulge.

Ooh er missus! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hi all , Just finished work , whats been happening? Any teddy bears thrown today ?

Anyway , the first model I have checked is this beauty from UKMO

Hope you had a good day. Yes, the UKMO is the one to watch tonight. Very exciting prospects. Looks very snowy 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Look at this belter of am ecm06z control at 144 hours!!!.....

 

This is a beaut

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

7 minutes ago, hernebaylooby said:

Nice flow of snow now in herne bay ( beltinge end) very small flakes 

I'm down station road and it's little flakes here on and off too lol

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

14 minutes ago, hernebaylooby said:

I can confirm I saw 3 flakes in herne bay on the door cam

I live in herne bay too and saw a few snizzle like flakes too!!!! Lol

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’ll join you Ali

Is tjere a collective term if we all do it lol

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hahaha! Never a truer word said let’s come back to this in 10 days time then. 
Deal?

I can vouch for that not one single flake in this south Eastern corner.