[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

10 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Just for fun, this morning's ECM op and ECM para, side-by-side:

These meteograms are for the south coast:

Minor point, the 12z para did eventually appear on Meteociel, though not on the ECMWF site (where the meteograms are from).

What can we deduce from these charts please? 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Morning All. A very cold wind this morning with precipitation moving over this area likely as sleet or wet snow 🌨.  Outlook is still unsettled with any warmer interludes, marred by strong winds and rain  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

This thread died quick.Signs of another cold shot later in the month looking less likely now,probably explains the lack of posts in here.

Might as well shut it down once their is no sign of any cold weather around!

I disagree. I think we  are in with a shout around 6am tomorrow morning 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

16 hours ago, Jamie M said:

Just want to keep this for the rest of spring - week is looking dire 

I'm afraid those sort of temps are on hold friend..  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

A cold week on the models has them feverishly working out whether a beast is possible. I'd say.... Yes. Mondays storm with damaging wind gusts and squalls likely  for us and sleet/snow 🌨 lol further on, renewed northern blocking looks likely keeping the outlook cold ❄ 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

3 minutes ago, PleaseSnow said:

You’re not alone! Portsmouth hasn’t seen any either. 

Not have we really in herne bay.. Fleetingly as it tirnrd to rain Tuesday erdsnsday but nothing selling or any amount. Signs for next Tuesdays storm look promising, possible snow on its back edge 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Hello is anyone in here lol  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Absolute zero here today.. Yawns 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Just now, Dami said:

Now turned heavy.

SEE above!!  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Gfs shows the 528 dam line reestablish itself over our area bringing precip later as snow 🌨 as the system exits south eastwards from 1-3 approx. Fingers crossed for all xx

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

Gfs primed for reload after reload now that the cold air is firmly in place. Signals also that the 2nd ssw has bolstered efforts here... 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Is all we gonna get in Kent rain tonight anyone?? 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

This snap shot shows the southern extent of the track of the low in recent model runs... I feel that we will all be back in the game before the week is out.  Amplification is shown and coupled with the 2nd wind reversal responsible for this first wintry outbreak, more cold and snow could be on the cards...  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah, it all stems back unfortunately to the UKMO/UKV having a total shocker for today and having everything way too far south which then was reflected in short term forecasts that everyone sees.

Certainly on the north of the region it will be well worth watching though even there I'm not sure down to low level how well it will fare, but I think for our half of the region, we are done until maybe a small risk as the LP complex leaves.

Can you show us which are the lucky few please 

Rain here but perishingly ❄ 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

Just now, Drifter said:

Well if GFS is to be believed, plenty more snow chances to come this month. 
Wouldn’t surprise me if a mid month ‘mini Beast’ pops up soon

I was thinking that as a result of the second mini warming?!?!  

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Bit light, need that slightly further east - But I am sure it's heading south so maybe more back end for me!

Me too! 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Ukv I meant!! 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

43 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Omg , its going to be one of those nights.

It certainly is!!! 

Just now, Floatylight said:

Still waiting, but don't think be long 

Jkv show it nicely encroaching!!  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, kate1 said:

Sleeting gently here in Tunbridge Wells. I can hardly contain my excitement. But hopefully we in the SE are in with a chance of something - which would be better than nothing at this point 

We do will be I can feel it coming 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

6 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I know, I am waiting for the 12z now off the GFS

This mornings runs showed meto musings!! 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Just been scrolling through the metreociel runs.... really not looking good for Kent.

THAT'S Against meto latest forecast of between 5-10 cms for Kent 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite amazing differences between the outputs at just T66 hrs .

The GEM below ! 

The UKMO 00 hrs raw output at T72 hrs .

And bearing in mind the UKMO fax chart has the low further north and deeper .

 

 

 

What's the implications of the lows position in terms of delivery of snow to Kent as things stand Nick? 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Icon 06z Finally falls in line with GFS/ECM with a smow event for the south tonight. A little marginal at times but at least overnight and in any heavier precip should be fine.

 

Omg. How could I miss that? For Kent? Can't see it on the gfs?? 

[It's snowing! Your reports & pics.]

9 minutes ago, Caroline Nixon said:

 

Snowing in Stisted!

 

You can see on the radar the front gradually moving south eastwards slowly  clearing, allowing the much colder air in and snow for some...  

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

26 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Nationwide snow on GEM this weekend (Apart from Cornwall)

In the meantime perhaps a high ground dusting for some today. Wednesday im just in the zone looks promising still.

 

Fantastic news buddy... Yes, here in herne bay I'm keeping fingers crossed too... Haven't seen a flake yet to speak of...