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PiscesStar

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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, DAVE_ALLEN said:

    MetO week ahead will be an Interesting to watch. Alex deakin won’t be able to contain himself 😁. 
     

    separately, did you notice that whilst the Greeny upper high moves away to northern Canada, by the Weeknd a new surface high has formed in southern Greenland, I wonder what my thoughts are on this developing some Heights with the support of the second coming of the SSW ?

    I think its a result of the second warming and will amplify as you suggest reinvigorating the cold air status? 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by PiscesStar

    35 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

    As pointed out earlier by the anomolies there is nothing bog standard by the pattern the next 10 days. America systems are stagnant, highly amplified and high pressure very much in charge upstream. Add onto that the positioning of tPV. There's nothing bog standard about lows moving Westwards into Atlantic before doing a u-turn towards us, so would suggest SSW has had input.

    The fact I'm viewing the whole chart on it's side to get a sense of normality for my ASD, of where systems normally reside clearly suggests there's been significant effects by something.

    Again as the Canadian fed Greeny block is still positioning itself along with the E & W USA drivers, perhaps worth keeping towels dry a tad longer before using them as kleenex

    Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics

     

    E2erHsQTmZ.gif

    Yes. I see developments too even if there is a temporary warmup 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

    Agreed any sign of mild, it’s FI. Positive thinking. It’s been working a treat this week as re intro mild on weds has been pushed back at least a couple of days.  Deep snow over southern snow fields will help to enhance the block with the surface air remaining frigid 🥶

    I suspect the mild showing will get mixed out even for us southerners.. The lows will trsject further south on subsequent runs the closer we get to target.  Also, I see signs of further retorgreddion northwestward of the high which will reinvigorate a northerly outbreak.... 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Looks as though we have a window of opportunity approaching towards the end of the month and into February. We're gaining pretty decent consensus that there will be a fairly significant displacement of the SPV towards Siberia. GEFS fairly conclusive at D10

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Sea, Water

    The warming subsequently makes its way towards the pole and clears the SPV from the Canadian sector completely.

    It's still pot luck as to whether we can benefit from this in the UK ( we may see a W based -NAO and a limpet UK trough for example). What it will do is give us a chance at seeing blocking set up somewhere from E Canada to Norway.

    GFS op gives us a pretty immediate response in its final frames with HP about to ridge towards Greenland and the TPV about to pull apart-

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art

     

    What dose this mean please in layman's terms 

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