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PiscesStar

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Hey folks it could be next weekend before milder conditions reach the far NE going on met update.

    At this rate by the time that cold clears the next push will be on the cards! Uncertainty remains key on how quickly that milder air extends North!

    Expect the unexpected from the models in the days ahead and don't be dropping your heads when some of the output goes all out mild.

    Difficult. When all you see is cold rain falling 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, BartyHater said:

    Like many in here I'm really not sure how next week will pan out, but if nothing else we have some interest on day 1 of winter, rather than having to wait for day 90.

    Clearly the constant battle between air masses for supremacy is what meteorology is all about, but what fascinates the vast majority of us in here are the ongoing winter battles, which in recent years the Atlantic army has been far to strong and significantly better organised than its foe....currently however things seem to be different, not least because the block army has spent much of late Autumn fortifying its position and building up its strength for what lies ahead - meaning this winter we have a ringside seat on what looks set to be a much fairer, much closer contest. 

    T-91 Let battle begin! 

    Looks like the south East loses out which is pants 😂 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    It strikes me that there are 3 options with this Atlantic lows meet cold pool thing:

    1. The lows disrupt to form a train of small lows that can slide and follow a southerly jet and track south.
    2. A deeper low gets stalled on the approach to the cold air, and resulting WAA pumps up heights into Scandi (like ECM 12z).
    3. A deeper low barges straight through and obliterates the cold pool (at least as far as it affects the UK).

    The third is the only one that carries the risk of fully unleashing the Atlantic subsequently.

    We’ve been watching this for a while now, where’s your money?  

    Option 2 renewed heights I'm going for.... 😳 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

    Nice upgrade this morning to the depth of the cold on the ECM, not much change at all in the duration on the ensemble so not really sure where the shortened spell comments are coming from. GFS as expected keeps moving the low South each run but until it isn't blowing it up anymore and matches UKMO/ECM at day 3/4 I'm not paying much attention at all to its output after that really.

    I agree. The ensembles look solid in terms of keeping the cold don't they expect more fab charts I say!!! 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

    Off topic, but just to say I bloody love this forum. So many knowledgeable people on here from whom I continue to learn so much from. I did have a list of jobs I was meant to do today...not going too well with that! Anyway back to the models..keep 'em rolling and eyes down looking!,,

    LOL 😂 yes let's keep those peepers wide open for subsequent upgrades lol

    • Like 2
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