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Joneseye

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Posts posted by Joneseye

    April CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes. Don't use it for long-range temperature guestimates.

    Seriously, model outputs are wayward enough past T+5 days on synoptics. To try and use them to second-guess actual temperatures that far out, and then state 'this is what the CET will be' is about 4 leaps of faith too far. If forecasters caution about synoptic certainty at that range, it is quadruply dangerous to use them for temperature certainties.

    Fair enough and I agree with you that using the models to predict temperatures and CET is not the best method. What would you suggest using as an alternative method of predicting the CET?

    April CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    SB I have to question your ability to make definitive statements about temperatures in the future. Using the GFS runs in the way you do is very inaccurate.

    The CET is now rising fast. Philip had it at 6.3C to yesterday (not 6.1) and the NW tracker which is several hours ahead is approaching 6.7C. The tracker CET should be somewhere around 8C by the end of the Easter weekend, or average. Thereafter we will need to see what the synoptics produce, but if second-guessing synoptics that far ahead is fraught enough, stating temperatures is folly.

    SB is only using the information that is available to him. Do you suggest an alternative to using the GFS?

    March CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    With raging south-westerly to westerly winds, I doubt we will see anything lower than a 6.* CET if we are lucky to get it that low. check the 5-day forecast for Bristol as an example.

    Remember that the CET is recorded in central england. This means it is more likely to be nearer to the battleground of mild and cold air this weekend than the west countryis.

    Thursday 16th February 2006

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    Morning all.

    Woke up to heavy rain this morning at 0645, which lasted about 30 minutes or so. Just had a heavy squally shower with some hail mixed in for good measure at 1110. The latest radar shows a batch of showers passing over Wiltshire, Hampshire and Berkshire.

    Wilma Watching

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    I know it's an a**e but don't cancel, let the Travel Agency/ Tour operator call the shots (i.e. don't take any initiative for they will not be liable for your losses.......even if it means turning up at the airport at the appointed time!!! unless it isn't a finacial concern of course). If the airports/hotels are shut then i think they have to make good ,if you cancel you may have to bear some of the losses.

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Thanks for all the advice peeps!

    I think I will wait for things to calm down a bit before making any kind of contact just to be sure of what I am facing.

    Wilma Watching

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    If it's anything like the caribbean islands, they'll have already flown all the planes off and shut the runway, the boats will all be out of port, and the power and water will have been switched off. Even if nothing happens it usually takes about 1 week for everything to settle back to normal again (in this case, I don't think 'nothing happening' is an option).

    I wouldn't leave it too late to decide what to do :D

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Thanks Snowbear and Roo.

    I guess I have to face the facts that I won't be going. My missus is giving my loads of grief for being a weather enthusiast and not being able to pick a suitable time to go on holiday :D I am sure others have experienced similar grief when they get weather things wrong...

    Wilma Watching

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Thanks Shuggee :D

    Next Hunter plane due for take off in 3 hours time if my reckoning on time zones is right.

    From last thread, New Invest 99L to keep watch on as well...

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...tables&DISPLAY=

    And I think Cancun radar has stopped working, at least here its not updating, anyone verify that please?

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Are you looking at this one http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm ?? It needs to be refreshed every now and then. By my reckoning the Cancun area has probably had about 150-200mm of rain since 0700 as it has been stuck in the 25-51mm per hour bracket and sometimes the red 51-127 mm/hour :D

    Wilma

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Joneseye, I suggest you cancel your trip, or rather have a feeling you wont be able to get there. Maybe best to see if you can get compensation  :(

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    I am planning to watch for the next 24 hours to see what happens. I have been glued to this thread for days now and feel a little bit selfish harping on about my holiday when there are lives at risk.

    :blink:

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