Joneseye
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Hi Joneseye
Just watched the BBC local forecast for the South East and Peter Cockcroft seemed fairly confident that the whole region should see snow Thursday morning with it not turning to rain until the afternoon. So, not looking bad really! As you say we will have to wait and see what happens on Thursday.
Absolutely right! The nowcast bit is going to be the most important thing as we approach the time...
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Well according to the Net Weather 12z 7 day forecast, it doesn't look good for snow Thursday morning down here in Woking Surrey. They're going for sleet and 3c between 3 and 6am for it to turn to rain thereafter!
Hi Don. If I were you I wouldn't get too downbeat. The phrase "the devil is in the detail" is one I would use for this situation particularly as there are still uncertainties as to the track of the low pressure.
I will be up late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning tracking the system as it comes in, which will give a better idea of whether it will be snow or sleet or rain..
ps. might be worth heading down to Leith Hill to see some snow
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Im afraid thats luck. Snow in the Midlands like what we will have on thursday is Literally a Massive Blizzard for us!
Hi Blizzards! I admire your enthusiasm, but you are setting yourself up for a bit of a fall by talking about massive blizzards. If I were you I would remain quietly confident without getting too carried away...
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-->QUOTE(Matt B @ 6 Feb 2007, 04:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Reading?
Hi Matt,
here are some snippets from my earlier post after looking at the 06Z
"Hi BriT, we are definitely in the marginal zone. For some reason the M4 is always a bit of a boundary, maybe something to do with the Thames Valley or the Orography
For us a lot will depend on the conditions in the run up to event i.e. time of day, temps and dew points. If it arrives at night we stand a much better chance of getting a dew hours of snow. If it arrives during the daylight this will reduce the chances somewhat.
ps. I will be heading up to Beacon Hill in the hope of breaking a few bones !!
pps. the current scenario we have with a channel low pressure is/was always going to be our best shot at some decent snowfall here. That is not to say that it will happen... very much proof in the pudding time! "
The 12Z shows things moving further north somewhat! I reckon we will need the low to track as southerly as possible. I will be heading to the local hills round here in the hope of some sledging!
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I agree, these synoptics are as rare as hens teeth! reminds me very much of the late seventies/early eighties.
Too true!
I agree with Paul when he says "My location could not get anything and I know that but some places will get it hard and then could keep getting it for a part of February."
The models are showing the potential for a decent snow event for some of the less favoured locations in recent years. I will be happy to hear that people have got a decent dumping out of this.
Still worth remaining cautious for Saturday in light of the fact that there have been inconsistencies in the models within a very short timeframe. FI for me is still within 48 hours after the Thursday event. I am looking forward to the Ensembles with great interest!
IJ
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I would dismiss most of the strange comments of it's "a southerly event"...Notice the people saying that come from the "South"...Does not take a genius to work it out. Some people on here are really straw clutching.
IMO, what will happen is any snow/sleet will turn to rain down south, Bristol upwards, sleet/snow possibly turning back to rain the more south you are. Any further, Midlands north, with showers penetrating yorkshire, durham etc. Snow NOT turning to rain Midlands Northwards.
I get the impression that those people haven't even looked at the models over the last few days.. the main problem is the lack of consistency between from the models even at this short range. I guess a lot of this stems from the lack of these synoptics over the last few years, but it doesn't help when the models cannot.. erm.. model things accurately (for the want of a better phrase!?)
As for your second point that will again depend on the exact track of the low pressure, what time it arrives, the dew points, the intensity of the precip etc. .. obviously overnight arrival is more beneficial as well due to the lower temps..
Anyway fun watching and beats work any day of the week..
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Hiya, I really need someone who knows more about reading the charts than I do to help me.
I live in Huddersfield near Emley moor. I will be traveling to Southport for a wedding on Saturday morning. Am I likely to experience any problems or should I travel on the Friday night instead.
I realise it might seem a bit of a silly question to ask but looking at all the different forecasts is giving a different outlook everytime I look. Plus, I'm not too great a reading the charts, so PLEEEEAAAAASSSSEEE can SOMEONE help me?
snowday. x
Hi snowday. The reason the forecasts are giving you a different outlook every time you look is because there is still so much uncertainty even with a few days to go. The current conditions we are facing are quite rare these days and are a lot more difficult for computers/forecasters to predict accurately.
As for your travel plans I could not honestly give you an answer at this stage. My advice for you is to keep an eye on the Net-Weather close-up forecasts and to keep an eye on the blogs that John Holmes (Senior Forecaster) has been doing over recent days. If you need help locating this PM me.
Regards
Ian
it is with regard to thurs stroke fridayA lot depends on the how far north the track of the projected low pressure gets. Some of the model runs this morning have projected this to get as far north as your area, however other models have shown the track of the low to be further south.
As with my other recent post in this thread the best advice is to keep a close eye on the Blogs by John Holmes and the close up forecast from the home page.
One thing is for certain it really is on a knife-edge!
Hope this helps.
Ian
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only serious answers please
Hi Ian,
can you be a bit more specific as to the time period in question?
Regards Ian
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Kold, you say the models show the snow line further north-does the line cut right across the country, west to east, or is it like a sausage shape that only goes as far east as say Northamptonshire.
If the latter than eaither way with me being so far east that snow line can go as far north as it wants, I won't get any!
I think this may illustrate the point KW is trying to make. Note the timings at the top!
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Not really been following this cold spell. Any chance of any snow in Reading area?
Hi BriT, we are definitely in the marginal zone. For some reason the M4 is always a bit of a boundary, maybe something to do with the Thames Valley or the Orography (Orography is the term used to describe undulations on the surface of the Earth of any size and shape, from small hills to major mountain ranges that span continents.), courtesy of the Met Office.
For us a lot will depend on the conditions in the run up to event i.e. time of day, temps and dew points. If it arrives at night we stand a much better chance of getting a dew hours of snow. If it arrives during the daylight this will reduce the chances somewhat.
Defo a good time to get a decent radar, like the Net-Weather one, unless you already have one!
ps. I will be heading up to Beacon Hill in the hope of breaking a few bones
!!EDIT - pps. the current scenario we have with a channel low pressure is/was always going to be our best shot at some decent snowfall here. That is not to say that it will happen... very much proof in the pudding time!
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The current N-W UK tracker figure for February 2007 is: 4.91°C
(difference from average February CET is 0.71°C)
No data yet from Climate-UK and I cannot be bothered to look at other sites...
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My heart says that there may be some cold weather for us to cheer, however my head rules and I predict another mild month. Therefore I going to plump for 6.1C
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Stonking cold spell here. Woke up to the most laying snow I have had here since the infamous Thundersnow event. To be honest my location is not really favourable to an easterly, north easterly or northerly unless they are really potent so I wasn't really expecting too much here anyway.
My advice to some of the newbies and winter only posters is to expect nothing and then you will not be disappointed when nothing happens. I expected nothing and got something so I am more than happy
If you start believing people posting 10cms here and 20cms there it all ends in tears as nobody can accurately predict that even with 24 hours notice.
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Woke up to a wintry scene here this morning. Enough snow for a snowball, but not enough for a snowman... still didn't expect it, which makes it even better!
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Hey all
Hope this is the right place to put such a request, but I am a total novice to weather forecast predictions etc. I am learning an awful lot from the forum, but sometimes lack of time does not permit to catch up on things via the site....this is causing me some (!) frustration!....
sooo.... I was wondering if anyone could recommend a book that I could get..
.a weather for dummies would be an excellent start if such a book exists..I suspect not.. then I could take it away read at bedtime and next time I am on the site be just that little more clued up......and hopefully have something more interesting to post! Many thanks in anticipation
Polar bear
Hiya!
as I mentioned to you the other day my friends have cottoned on to my interest in weather and it seems that for birthday's and xmas I am destined to receive weather related gifts for some time!
I have got about 5 books that I am working my way through, but cannot really help with specifics other than I think you need to specify your particular interests!
I received a really good book on clouds for xmas that I think you will like, particularly as I know you like clouds
and I will reply later with the details.I supect you will need some kind of Encyclopedia of weather, if such a thing exists?!!? Once you have this then you might have a better idea of which areas you would like to learn more about?
IJ
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Count me in for 10.69..
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Hi Paul,
very interesting thread! Haven't got much to add other than the fact that it was some of the most intense rainfall I have ever experienced. A few friends described it as tropical..
I live about 18 miles to the west of Winnersh, but unfortunately haven't got any decent equipment to have captured it.
Ian
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At the moment I think Philip's CET will finish between 6.6 and 6.8, with 6.7 my favourite. I'm basing this on the likelihood of it being at 6.3C by tonight, after which it will be a sharp rise for the remaining 4 days. Hopefully Hadley will be a decimal place higher than this thanks to the inversion!
Current CET according to © Philip Eden is 6.2C
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Precip type radar shows it quite nicely:
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Unfortunately they do on BBC News homepage tickertape banner lol
Don't you just love the media :o
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There are a couple of distinct lines in the south at the moment:
On a seperate note - Belgium must have sunk by now if the radar is real :o
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Just about to get ding ding round number 2 here...
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Morning all!
in the middle of a thunderstorm here at the moment with 2 very close CG strikes and instant booming thunder! A couple of people in the office yelped and quite a few have remarked "isn't it unusual for thunder in the winter"...
I have to say it was certainly unexpected!! It has become very squally out there..
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5.7C please Bob
.a weather for dummies would be an excellent start if such a book exists..I suspect not.. then I could take it away read at bedtime and next time I am on the site be just that little more clued up......and hopefully have something more interesting to post! 
and I will reply later with the details.
Will it snow in......?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Happy birthday Summer Blizzard! 18 today, why aren't you down the pub?
Those figures you quote on snow depths are irrelevant until closer the time to be honest and at least you have some decent enough elevation in your favour as well!