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Joneseye

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Posts posted by Joneseye

    Monday 11th June 2007

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    A cloudy and warm start here:

    Temperature 15.5 °C

    Humidity 84 %

    Dew Point 12.8 °C

    Wind Chill 15.5 °C

    Wind (Beaufort) Calm

    Wind Direction ESE

    Wind Speed 0.0 mph

    Wind Gust 0.0 mph

    Barometer (SL) 1015 mb

    Barometer Trend Steady

    Barometer Rate -0.0 mb / hr

    Hourly Rain 0.0 mm

    Rain Rate 0.0 mm / hr

    Rainfall Today 0.0 mm

    Grass Temp 17.3 °C

    Figures courtesy of a local weather station http://www.thatcham-weather.info

    Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Sea breeze front has become evident across Sern England this afternoon, amongst the general cu bubbling up over England and Wales, this front or wind convergence line will slowly move inland towards the M4 as the sea breeze strengthens this afternoon, this convergence line will most likely be the area where TCu will build high enough for heavy showers to form.

    Recent Wind chart chows convergence line over Sern counties:

    post-1052-1181393256_thumb.png

    There are already some echoes appearing in the New Forest area along the convergence zone.

    Convective/Storm Discussion early to mid June (merged)

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Strangely the rain was no way near how heavy it showed up on the radars. Most of the rain around 3mm/hr, got 7mm now. Dissapointing really. No more than a slightly soggy morning, with the odd rumble of thunder.

    I doubt anywhere saw the 100mm which the metoffice said was possible. I would guess that the most anybody saw from this was an inch or so.

    Here is the 24 hour cumulative rainfall. Looks like most of the heavy stuff only brushed the coastline:

    post-2885-1181298055_thumb.png

    Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Looks like the cluster of cells over to the east of France will be the area too watch this afternoon. Temps are around 25/26c where the storms are, the north looks abit fresher, only 20c in Paris.

    Good shout! Since I last posted they have really sprung into life:

    post-2885-1181222803_thumb.png

    From my own observations this is nothing new, but certainly with the forecast for storms to move up overnight it is definitely worth keeping an eye on..

    Latest from http://www.estofex.org/

    post-2885-1181223005_thumb.png

    Nothing too severe forecast:

    Storm Forecast

    Valid: Thu 07 Jun 2007 06:00 to Fri 08 Jun 2007 06:00 UTC

    Issued: Wed 06 Jun 2007 21:55

    Forecaster: GATZEN

    SYNOPSIS

    Weather situation did not change significantly. High over Scandinavia remains, while several weak upper cut-offs are situated over northwestern Europe. Low geopotential centered over northern Mediterranean has weakend compared to WED. Strong westerly jet at the southern flank of this upper low remains.

    DISCUSSION

    Benelux

    A surface low is expected to develop over France/southwestern Germany during the day, providing warm air advection over Benelux. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and rather rich moisture in low-levels, instability will likely realize. However, do not see that dewpoints will reach around 20°C as indicated by latest GFS model run. Additionally, low-level air mass may be relatively cool. Expect that thunderstorms will form during the afternoon/evening hours that may be elevated over some places. Given increasing north-easterly surface winds and therefore increasing vertical wind shear, chance for organized convection will be increased, too. A few multicells are forecast to develop, while only low chance for large hail is expected. Thunderstorms may go on well into the night in the warm air advection regime.

    Northern/central Italy, Alpine region and southern/western Germany into France, northern Spain, Czech Republic and Poland

    Boundary-layer moisture has improved over France as indicated by latest soundings, and quite steep lapse rates especially below 600 hPa are also present. This will result in CAPE during the day due to diurnal heating. Weak CIN is present, and convective initiation is expected in the range of low-level convergence zones/outflow boundaries of old convection or upslope flow regimes in hilly terrain. Quite strong buoyancy at relatively low levels will likely result in strong updrafts initially, while weak vertical wind shear is expected to inhibit organized convection over most places. Isolated large hail can not be ruled out with convective cells in the early mature stage. North and west of this area with rich low-level moisture, latest soundings indicate inverted-v-profiles and at least weak instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day, while a few strong downbursts are forecast to be the main threat. Intense precipitation and local flash flooding is forecast to be a significant threat over a broad area.

    June 7th - HIGH RISK

    in Storm Chase USA

    Posted

    June 7th sees my 2nd HIGH Risk of the year and we are going to take a Massive Gamble on blowing off the HIGH Risk and not even going for the Moderate Risk, we are going to go for the South East Kansas and Oklahoma Slight Risk, we have a contact in the National Weather Service who has also verified what we are seeing on the Models and has said Oklahoma if it fires could be explosive today, High Temps and big dewpoints with a trailing cold front is our play for my final day. NAM & F5 Data show this area with significant Tornado Parameters at 6-9pm today.

    Wish us luck for our 700-800 mile drive today

    Paul Sherman

    Good luck and safe driving!

    June 6th Report & Pictures

    in Storm Chase USA

    Posted

    Many Thanks For the Compliments Guys, the Camera is really awful which makes it worse that i have a broken Canon EOS Sitting in the Car doing nothing, also have some guys from Olympus out on a Paid trip with us and when i look at there photos it makes me cry :lol:

    Regarding the HIGH Risk we are just about to phone NorthWest Airlines and find out wether i can miss out on my Denver to Minnesota flight and just go from Minnesota to Gatwick, It would mean i could Chase the High and still make the Airport for the 7pm flight tomorrow. Anybody know wether this is possible, I cant see why it is not possible???

    Paul S

    If you don't ask you don't get!

    Definitely worth a try, especially if you put on your finest Queen's EngliDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

    6th June 2007 - Nebraska

    in Storm Chase USA

    Posted

    SPC Have included everything we posted last night into their discussion with what seems 2 areas now, the 1st in Eastern Montana and the West of N Dakota is a big No No, but I am still liking our corridoor of activity as Nick says from S Central S Dakota to North Central Kansas, we are in the middle of the 15% Tornado Risk atm, so a lot of sitting around and waiting today.

    Paul Sherman

    Hope you have picked a good spot Paul and good luck chasing today.. fingers and toes crossed you get to see a nado close up!

    Wednesday 6th June 2007

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    Not the best start to the day here. It clouded over from about 2100 yesterday evening and has remained cloudy this morning. Quite a contrast to the lovely clear blue skies of yesterday morning.

    After the horrible start things have brightened up nicely here:

    Temperature 18.0 °C

    Humidity 45 %

    Dew Point 5.9 °C

    Wind Chill 17.6 °C

    Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Anyone know what the chances of storms are for Shropshire on Sunday? im thinking about going to Cosford Airshow but no point going if its tipping it down.

    Many thanks.

    Got a feeling that the further away from the south-east you are the better the chances are of it staying dry. I think the south and east may catch a rogue home grown or an import from France, other than that I reckon it will be a nice warm/hot sunny day with a high sun index..

    June C.E.T

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Let's not leap to wild assumptions regarding the veracity of CET based on five days' comparison with one site in Northampton. it might be worth your reading through a recent thread started by PP pondering on whether the CET is an irrelevance. His point was that CET was different to Durham, which is like saying New York is different to Port Stanley and being surprised by the stated fact. The CET does what it says on the can, it is not a Northampton series, or a Durham series, or a Birmingham series: it is an index based on several stations (loosely) in the triangle between Manchester, London and Brisole. A variation of 0.5C or so with individual stations in the hinterland (or even inside) of this zone is trivial: a locally cloudy night can swing things by three or four degrees, as can a cloudy day. If the variation were five degrees or so there might be grounds for debate.

    I knew you would be able to put things a little more eloquently than my earlier attempt..

    June C.E.T

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    not sure why the CET is so high presently? Im in Northamptonshire, right in the middle of the CET zone and our local weather station (proper one not automatic) up to today is currently showing an average of 15.3 degrees. How can this be? nearly a degree below the CET! Doesn't give me much confidence in the CET being that accurate or relevant!

    A few people have questioned why Manley is so high this month and I am sure there is a perfectly reasonable explanation. Not quite sure I would go as far as to questioning the accuracy or relevance after 5 full days!

    My own take on it (without having looked into the data) is that there has been a tendency for it to cloud over at night in the first 5 days of this month. It seems in recent times that the higher CET figures we have been seeing have been more due to nightime minima than daytime maxima (April aside).

    IJ

    Wednesday 6th June 2007

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    Not the best start to the day here. It clouded over from about 2100 yesterday evening and has remained cloudy this morning. Quite a contrast to the lovely clear blue skies of yesterday morning.

    Current Obs:

    Temperature 12.3 °C

    Humidity 65 %

    Dew Point 5.9 °C

    Wind Chill 11.0 °C

    June C.E.T

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Good Morning! Latest Manley CET:

    CET: (Jun 1- 5): 16.1°C (+2.9 degC)

    E&W Rain: (Jun 1- 5): 1.5mm ( 13 per cent)

    E&W Sun: (Jun 1- 5): 37.7hr (119 per cent)

    Figures from http://www.climate-uk.com

    The current N-W UK tracker figure for June 2007 is: 15.38°C (difference from average June CET is 1.28°C).

    If anyone can post a link to the Hadley figure that would be great.

    A small drop in the CET from Manley yesterday, but still quite a big disparity to the NW Tracker... normally it is the other way round and the tracker is slightly higher in terms of the temps.

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