Joneseye
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Posts posted by Joneseye
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Looking great down here on the coast.......if you like rain and 6'c! Thats the latest GFS run anyway! It does turn more to snow by 9am tomorrow morning, but by then the ground will have warmed up loads and any snow that falls will take a hell of a long time to settle.
If we can't get snowfall in early Jan with a channel low, when can we get snowfall!? (sorry to moan on, im just gutted)
Hi Jamie - dont worry about moaning and low expectations as that makes the unexpected even more pleasurable. The good thing is the cold air is already entrenched over our area and the heavier the precipitation the more readily it will turn to snow.
Good Luck!
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Hard not to get too excited about our prospects as the NAE Model has our area in the 'sweet spot' later on today. I am already glued to the radar!!
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Well the latest GFS certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons! So much so that I had to frame the latest NetW 7 day forecast for Wednesday, which for those that don't already know updates 4 times a day based on the latest GFS run:
I really do not think it will end up anything like it has predicted, but then it is so close to being in the reliable timeframe. Head over heart always seems to be the order of the day in these situations!!
My advice to anyone reading is take everything with a pinch of salt and keep a close eye on the local forecast and radar. I would advise anyone looking at travelling tomoz evening into Weds pays particularly close attention to the forecasts.
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I have been an avid model follower and fairly infrequent poster on this thread for a number of years. After looking at the 12Z GFS I felt compelled to post.
Maximum respect to any forecaster out there if they get their forecast spot on based on the models.. this winter has proved what a nightmare it is for the models to accurately model cold weather on the mesoscale level. Fair play to the experienced and cool heads on this thread that talk about getting the cold synoptics first!
'All of a sudden' the GFS develops a low pressure slap bang over the middle of England and the threat of a lot more precipitation at T36! The other models forecast along 'similar' lines but with slightly different locations for the main core of the precipitation and all the in the reliable time-frame. I bet the met office and highways agencies are tearing their hair out trying top get this right!
The term nowcasting is very much the name of the game at the moment and I shall be glued to the radar as well as the latest model runs.
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Thanks John for all your hard work. Good luck to Nick too!
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And at the other end of the country, some impressively low readings in Hampshire at 11pm, with -8C at Middle Wallop, -5C at Farnborough... and an unofficail -9C at Stratfield Mortimer up in Berkshire by 9pm.
Here in Yateley it's -5C too and the 7-8cm of snow cover has frozen rock solid.
yep minus 6 in Newbury town centre and slightly lower where I am in the burbs... could be on for a record tonight!
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Interesting topic.. looks like being one of the coldest nights here in many a year. I got a taxi home about 40 mins ago and the temps were already down to minus 7 at 2300. The 18z GFS is forecasting a minimum of minus 2 tonight, so a long way below that already.. check out Middle Wallop or Benson for a local reading.
We have about 6cm of lying snow here and it has been clear since midday hence the ingredients are all there for an exceptionally cold night to the point where the antifreeze may not work and we have a lot of frozen engines on cars it is that cold.
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I concur with the measurements of between 5 and 5.5 cms of level snow.
Just been out and made a snow blob.. couldn't find any gloves so gave up after about 20 mins. The snow is the sort that compacts well when you roll it, but it soon became too heavy to pick up hence making a blob! Reminds me of 1981 nr Cambridge, however that was with 8" of level snow so about 4 times as deep as it is here today.
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A few more pics from the Reading area. Getting some awful tales of people stuck (including my heavily pregnant missus, desperate for the toilet!)
Addit: The last two are the M4 believe it or not!
the first pic made me laugh... I think Pooo sums up the conditions quite nicely!
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I am surprised it is so quiet on this thread..
Still snowing here in Newbs and accumulating quite nicely.
Why have their been no gritters out?
Why are people so bad at driving in snow? It helps to pull away in 2nd gear and be very light on the throttle, is that too difficult a concept to grasp?
I have just looked at the updated forecast from GFS. The 7 day forecast for my location is showing rain up until midnight with snow after midnight.. If the GFS is so poor at this range i.e. nowcasting then I hold out very little hope for the rest of the week...
A31 at Ropley likely to be closed, plus other warnings in North Hants:
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/4814967.Commuters_warned_as_ice_threatens_to_shut_major_route/
interesting link!
I used to work for the AA in the Ops Centre and can imagine what sort of chaos is unfolding with the return to work mixed with cold overnight temps and falling snow. The whole of Newbury is in gridlock with bus services suspended etc. We have had about 3cms of snow so far.. quite sad to see the infrastructure fail so easily with a relatively small amount of snow
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I can confirm what Lookup and Stormboy are seeing it is snowing light to moderate here in Newbs... and the traffic is queuing outside my house which doensn't bode well for later!!
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A very interesting 06z GFS post christmas day. Milder air battles its way across England and Wales temporarily, there's even a deep little secondary at one point, but the cold eventually returns in time for new year.
I'll be interested to see the ensembles when they come out as the 00z was among the colder members at that range.
The current synoptics have all the characteristics of the cold v mild battles of winters in the 60s, 70s and early 80s.
From my understanding this is similarly in line with what Blast and RJS have been talking about in their LRF - interesting!
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How anyone can say with any certainty what is going to happen in 5-6 days I don't know. In all my time of model watching I haven't seen synoptics like we have at the moment except in archives.
The 06 GFS throws yet another scenario into the mix. As Tamara stated earlier it is quite easy to look at the models from an IMBY perspective and from my own it paints a marginal picture with the threat of precip and cold temps and reasonably cold uppers. It snowed here the other day with an upper air temp of -3.6 with a +1C temp 0C dew point and light precip so I will take my chances with marginal thankyou very much.
Into FI on the 06 GFS it shows a messy breakdown with the main low pressure held out in the Atlantic.. not sure how plausible that is!?
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The evolution on the 06Z GFS is certainly quite tasty looking if you like prolonged cold and snow.
This latest run shows a snow event for the South of the UK next Wednesday if it verified as we see this morning. However we are in a period of uncertainty for the outlook due to the synoptics being the non-default for the UK. Interesting times for the weather fan, particularly if you like snow and cold!
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It just goes to show how snow starved we are down here in our area. Obviously Feb this year was reasonable for some and April 2008 was quite exceptional for an out of season event, but the majority of the snow that settles tends to fall at night and we don't actually get to see it falling!
I was chuckling to myself when reading reports of heavy snow down sarf and hearing the people in the office around me going 'wow look at that snow it's really heavy' - I was very quick to point out that it was light snow and that it was barely settling, which made me feel a bit of a killjoy!
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Snow petering out here now as the heavier precip moves south away from here along with the area of lower dew points.
Interesting to note that the overlays on the Netweather radar show a temp of 0C here with similar or slightly lower dew points of 0C or -1. Combine that with upper air temps (850s) of between -3C and -4C with light precip and we have snow. Just goes to show how difficult it is to predict the white stuff as one would expect that we would need heavier precip and lower upper air temps to see anything white falling out of the sky.
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by the looks of the radar its moving into hampshire now
It is heading gradually southwards and looks to be intensifying as it does so, but still some way short of moderate and medium at this time. The radar image I posted was zoomed in on my current location so Newbury M4 area postcode RG14 2QU. The Net-Weather radar is worth every penny and is far superior to the freebies out there like Meteo and the Met Office IMO.
Snow is starting to settle here... but remember this is very much unexpected and I would classify as the Canape or Hors D'eurve!
Let's hope the main course is an American sized portion and not Haute Cuisine! lol
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Slightly better than light snow falling here now.. it's trying to settle on the cars as well
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Here is the latest radar zoomed in on CS England (courtesy of the Net-Weather radar)!
Enjoy Peeps
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A few light flakes of snow now falling in north east Hampshire - much earlier than expected. That's two days in a row we have had some. Let's hope that any precipitation that falls today is snow and that we get a covering.
Same here in West Berks - what is your location Coram and welcome!
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Do any of the forecasters on here buy the evolution after this weekend on the 06Z GFS? When I say this I mean the way the low pressure and mild weather progresses it's way into mainland Europe so easily?
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Glad to hear that some of the locals to this thread got to see falling snow yesterday evening.
Back to the future and it looks like the easterly(ish) winds will get going in earnest over the next 48 hours.. we need to get lucky with the strength of precip and direction of the wind to profit from them in our region.. it will certainly be fun lamppost watching!
Once we get to Friday it is all eyes to the north, which as most of you will know will require even more in the way of luck for snow to penetrate as far south as us lot way down here. Our best bet id for some form of trough to make it's way down the country a la Jan 2004 and the thundersnow event. Hope we get lucky...
Out past the end of the weekend the cold air will be firmly entrenched across the country by then, hopefully with a bit of snowcover to give us some decent overnight temps... & then we are looking at a decaying front (according to the 06z GFS) to be over the top of us by Monday, but that is a long way ahead in meterological terms!
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.png - :o ........Yes kold maybe you're right about the extreme bit
The net-weather version shows temps across the midlands northwards at -10C at midday next Tuesday, but let's face it there is a lot of water to go under the bridge before we get that far ahead.
I have been watching the evolution of this run and am baffled by the track of the low pressure to the north of us, which ends up to the North West of Scotland.. I was thinking that it would be more likely to end up to the east of us? Also it fills in quite a lot as it makes it's way down from the Svalbard region, does that seem plausible?
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Back from a trip to the docs in Chieveley where there was light snow with temps of 1C - nowt settling, but nice to see all the same
South Central England Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It is probably quiet on here because we live in statistically one of the least snowy parts of the country and we kinda get forgotten about as a region & get lumped in with the SE generally... yet here we are threatened with a major event and the thread is dead, too many let downs in the past, but also a surprise event before xmas to whet the appetite.
Beka - I have my shovel at the ready as I am more than prepared to clear my drive and pathways this time round. I managed to fall over on the ice in December on the path outside my house and not gonna happen this time... having said that how am I supposed to clear the projected 35cm of level snow for my location? There will be nowhere to put it!! LOL