Joneseye
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Posts posted by Joneseye
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Just so you know I posted into this thread as I like to follow rules. :-D
OK come on who's promised their kids and friends snowmageddon and is now going to have to backtrack? I did post 'that chart' from the ECM on Facebook the other day when slightly sozzled on Shiraz, but did put a massive caveat on it. Should I go into hiding?
As a member of this site since the early days and an all year round follower of the models I do find that the best modelled situations tend to be the default Zonal SW patterns. Whenever something 'interesting' i.e. non default comes along they really struggle to get to grips with those solutions. Anything more than 5 days ahead in Zonal situations tends to be FI in my mind. In non standard I would say the macro level is 72 hours for FI and that nowcasting is best for the specifics be it snow, T-storms and amounts of precip.
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Has anyone else spotted the GFS precip type charts show snow for the SE for the morning commute tomorrow? The charts did well earlier this week when the met and bbc were predicting sleet at most so what is everyone's opinion on those of us in the SE waking to another sprinkling tomorrow?
I think it might be better to use one of the higher resolution models to predict what is likely to occur, the GFS shows a small risk with a snow level at 300m so it will likely need heavier precipitation to reach ground levels. If anyone has a screengrab from one of the other models that would be appreciated
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I really enjoyed those massive flakes of snow at about 0700 this morning. Here's to some more in the coming weeks once the really cold upper becomes established.
As always with our region we do need a little bit more luck than other more favourable parts with the wind direction and more organised disturbances in the flow. Holy Grail for us is a channel low pressure, but those kind of details will become clearer once we enter now-casting territory in the next week or so.
PS we are very lucky on this site to have the wise words of Ian Fergusson and for those of you on Twitter I recommend following him too
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The area of moors inland from Plymouth has now seen ove 120mm of rain for the 24 hrs period. I wouldn't fancy a road trip to Plymouth tonight on the A38 and it's still torrential
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Good times!
I went to Thailand end of April/early May 2010 at the hottest time of the year. Had a few thundery days and one notable downpour dumped about 75mm of rain on Koh Samui in about an hour shortly after midnight.
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2nd'd on the original scale on the radar going missing. It's always my default and the only one I find has the right level of contrast as the other 2 are way too bright. Please can it be restored.
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it's certainly looking pretty darn soggy over the whole of the south up until Monday. The will it rain forecast which uses the GFS precip model shows a couple of high total days for Friday and Sunday.
Does anyone have access to the NMM to show a 72hour rainfall prog? I know it's cheeky to ask..
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Sadly t'was only 57.8mm/hr although the rain was in the 50s for at least 4 minutes. SKs reading will be interesting as ever and if there are any reports due SE and E, I would like to hear them.
A dozen or so rumbles so far but not too many overhead.
Just a small little sprinkle then! I am sure there will be a few peeps keeping track of that bad boy as it whizzes NE into the warmer and moist air
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This is a vicious squall for sure, will update further later. Several Thunderclaps heard already and its all heading East.
I'd be interested to see what the peak rain rate you captured as the echoes on the radat indicate something up towards 100mm/h
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Indeed it does and I think I may strike it lucky sometime soon. I've got a real thunderhead on now too.
As for the dewpoints, they have been steadily increasing since daybreak and the Temperature has also risen steadily in spite of occasional rain, must be the warm sector.
The excitement for an overhead thunderstorm is building... Go Newbury
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Local station recorded 27.6 as a maximum yesterday. The temp at 0830 is already 2.5C higher than yesterday so we could reach the 30C mark in Newbury today.
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Thanks Ian for sharing your thoughts. Cautiously optimistic is how I feel.
I just want to be able to use my BBQ and to play some golf in pleasant conditions.
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Is it possible to discuss the possiblity of summer returning i.e what peoples hopes or expectations are. I dont recall any cold spell discussion during the winter ending up like this, or warm lovers saying how much they hate the cold. It was 100% discussion about the upcoming cold spell.
Here here! I was hoping to get some analysis on what the thoughts were only to listen to yet another thread about preferences.
Without studying the models in any depth I notice the 7 day forecast for my local area sees an increase in pressure towards day 7 and winds from a more southerly direction.
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What do you know Coast, ignore the output and believe in gottolovethisweather, it's kicking off, see Surrey's post and others.
I can feel a very good acometh for us storm starved southerners.
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
Game on and maybe an early start to a severe event or two!
There looks to be a decent line developing Swindon out to the Bristol Channel that might just catch us in Newbs... it might also just miss...
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Certainly one of the weirdest days in CSE that I can remember. Damp Squib is an understatement!
Temps currently 15.7C at 2130 from a peak of 26.8C at 1516 . This represents a drop of 11.1C in 6 hours in the middle of summer with not even a hint of something thundery. Extraordinary!
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Bootiful out there today - currently trying to tempt my gym buddy to play golf instead this evening..
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A 52-year-old man died on Monday after his car became submerged at a ford near Newbury following heavy rain.
I live near that ford and have only ever crossed it in the middle of summer during a dry spell. For someone to have attempted it with the river Enbourne approaching flood status is sheer stupidity
it's not even a shortcut route and would only save a couple of mins journey time.Local station to me recorded 133.4mm taking the yearly total here to 230mm.
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wouldn't fancy being on the M25 junction 15-8 at the moment the bright echos are pretty much following hugging the M25!
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Ah I remember this well too! I was working for the AA at the time and we covered most of the South East of England. The timing and intensity of it caught a lot of people out including the gritters. The ensuing gridlock on the M1, A1M, M11 and M25 meant that we were unable to get to a lot of the broken down vehicles and a lot of people abandoned their cars. I left work at 0330 that night and we still had a few hundred breakdowns still to attend.
This event and the Thundersnow of Jan 2004 serve as a reminder of how just how easy it is for our road infrastructure to grind to a halt.
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Currently -3.8C here after a morning low of -10.5C and a max of 0.5C.
On another note - does anyone have a link where I can see some date records for minimum temps?
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Minus 10.1 here brrr - golf society must be cancelled, surely?
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Bitterly cold out there already - 4.4C in the burbs on Thatchbury and I notice Benson is already down to -7C and Cranwell -8C. Can see some double digit minima coming up tonight especially where there is snow cover..
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Much, much better than the weekend here in Newbury with approx. 4cm covering everything including the trees making a wonderful scene. The roads are fairly clear too, which makes it a much more pleasant experience all round.
Anything we get in the rest of the month and into early spring is a bonus now. Hard frost expected tonight under clear skies and then eyes to the north for the next 'potential' albeit nothing set in stone.
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Check out the latest posts from John Holmes in the following thread:
Another forecasters nightmare. I think they always are when snow is forecasted in this country.
it's not even a shortcut route and would only save a couple of mins journey time.
Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Certainly a bit warmer over in Berks with local station hovering above freezing at 0.3C. Plenty of frost forming on the cars so another scrape required in the morning.