Joneseye
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Posts posted by Joneseye
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I agree on the whole Stox but I'd lay off the predictions of snowfall amounts and depths etc. Having said that, we are ALL guilty of that from time to time.
I say this especially as the official forecasts are being much more reserved in their predictions at this time. I just hope some folk who claim "it never snows here!" will get the snow they crave. The fact remains for my location, 3 1/2 inches in December 2010 and 2 inches so far this February are the best snowfalls I have had.Game on for some yet again!
gottolovethisweather
I must live in a different Newbury to you. We had about a cm on Saturday night and between 6 and 8 inches in Dec 2010 with some places on Greenham Common over a foot deep.
As for the event this Thursday night it's wait and see for me. Everything was looking positive last Saturday only for the dew points to rise rapidly and the wind direction to change tack to a poor direction for snow. 20 miles north and it was a much better outcome.
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Evening peeps, temps certainly dropping like a stone. Gonna be quite treacherous in the morning
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a mucky few cms here in Newbury. gonna head up to Greenham Common later as the extra height up there usually means more snow
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Some heavier precip associated with th back edge is now approaching. Be interested to see what effect I has in Newbs
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Looking forward to snow here tomorrow, wonder how much we will get anybody know?
Rough rule of thumb is that 1mm of precipitation = 1cm of snow. You may here some people talk about an inch of rain (25.4mm) = a foot of snow. The Netweather forecast (based on the latest GFS run 06Z) will give you an indication of how much precip will fall.
For my location (RG14) 16mm of precipitation is expected to fall. It is all falls as snow to the levels expected then that would be 16cm of snow. *cue massive caveat
You could always check one of the higher resolution models such as the NAE, which tends to be a better predicter of amounts within 48 hours of the event.
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So here we are within 48 hours of a potential snow event and things are no less clear as to what will actually happen in lttle old Blighty. I guess this is what makes weather watching in this country so compelling? I mean we could live on a continental landmass such as North America or Europe where it is really a case of how much snow rather than will it/won't it.
A few things to note:
- Do we have embedded cold air - check.
- Do we have Precipitation - check.
- What happens when cold air and warm air collide? Fireworks - check.
- Do we believe what every single run of every single model tells us? check no.
- Does heavier precipitation increase the chances of snow - check.
- How often do we see a front pass through earler/later than expected? often
Based on experience of this since reading weather forums since 2004 & forming an opinion after analysing what has actually happened I remain cautiously optimistic on an all snow event.
- Do we have embedded cold air - check.
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Just driven back from Reading and the car therm reached -5.5c which is consistent with the local station. Not feeling like going to bed yet so may stay up for the GFS 0z.
Had a peek at the 18z 'pub run' and it's a bit out on it's own in terms of snow prospects.
remember that most of the good snowfalls occur at night, none of that pesky weak sun to allow temps to rise too high. What is forecasted is due to arrive at night. Once a blanket of snow has formed on the ground it does wonders for the layers of atmosphere above it (someone technical could explain that). I have high hopes and will be referring to the local forecasts, the fax charts, the NAE, the great people on this site, the lamppost and the radar to draw my conclusions.
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Currently dew points of -11.5 in the Newbs Thatcham burbs
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Exactly, I would bravely predict an air frost for members from costa del Southsea as well. Localised microclimate or not, this east wind is a cold one.
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
Oi oi! Costa del Southsea... Love it!
Our local online weather station www.thatcham-weather.info has significantly lower dew points than you SB. I wonder why they differ so much?
Should be some good sledging up Beacon Hill on Sunday, where is your favoured spot?
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I must say it's good to read the cautiously optimistic posts in this thread. Nothing wrong with adding extra caution in based on local knowledge for coastal areas IMO.
Somewhere on the frontal boundary is gonna get a right dumping especially if we get a stalled or decaying front. My only fear is that the embedded cold is so hard to shift that the front doesn't make inroads as far as is currently expected, but this only increases our chances of an all snow event and may lead to a better longer term evolution with further bites of the cherry.
If I am being really greedy I would like a massive dumping from about 2300 on Sat evening through to about 0800 on Sunday morning followed by sunshine and snow flurries. That's not too much to ask is it?
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Well thats a massive dissapointment for down here looking at the updated bbc forecast today on their website.Seems like most of the snow will be in the midlands,looked more like rain for a lot of us here.
ignore the BBC online forecast and stick with Netweather
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the grammar police know where you live... I know the feeling on this iPad it drives me bonkersSorry chaps for some typos on my post by the way. Flipping iPhone autocorrect. And by two scenarios offered I meant to add those on BBC News .
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Gotta pick the nipper up from Marlow on Saturday, I had best pack the blankets, shovel, camp fire to go along with the kitchen sink that we need to go anywhere these days.
I mentioned it to my wife and she shrugged like she's either heard it all before and doesn't trust my amateur judgement or she thinks I am the over protective father.... women :-D
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As ever the modelling of any breakdown in the British Isles is a headache for forecasters everywhere. Some really low dew points out there at the moment down to -10.6 at my local station under clear skies. Might have to leave the heating on tonight!
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My local weatherstation had the min temps of -1.5C at 20:00 yesterday evening after which a gradual increase occured as the winds picked up. The temps then dropped again to -0.9C at 08:00 from a high of 0.4C at 00:14.
The wind and cloud cover certainly prevented a more severe frost. Also note the dry and cold upper air and lower dew points preventing the frost buildup on the cars.
Tonight should be colder, but I doubt it will be as cold as the temps predicted by the GFS.
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At last a cold spell is upon us with the upper air temperatures to support precipitation falling as snow. Members of the forum should take a step back and watch things unfold and try not to get too uptight as things chop and change between each model run. Get the cold air in place first and then watch for expected and unexpected snow showers to arrive.
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Morning all. Here we are 24 hours away from some 'snow potential' - when baba wakes first thing in the morning I shall be taking a sneaky peak out of the window to view the nearest lamp post. It looks to me like we are missing a few ingredients in the magimix for full blown snow.. but what do I know
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Exceptionally wet over Portugal, Spain and south of France from those observations.
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Team,
I have noticed that the 7 day forecast is still on the summer settings for the 'feels like' instead of showing the wind chill
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I am (un)surprised at the popularity of this thread, perhaps record max temps are not so much in vogue!
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up to 25.3C in Newbs so hotter than yesterday and we are away from the sweet spot further inland..
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I'm not quite sure what they are saying in that bit of the article?
Bet you can't stop singing this today after a few minutes playing:
I get enough earworms from people at work and on facebook and now this! If you want to go there Coast I have some real corkers up my sleeve..
Back on topic we have had a 1.3C rise in temps here in the last 20 mins so full steam ahead towards the mid to late 70s farenheit in Sunny Newbury.
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How typical of a newspaper to mislead its readers. 27.8C represents a date record and not the record temperature does it not?
Once again higher temperatures in the west.. carbon copy of yesterday, I fully expect the temperatures here and across the east of England to rise rapidly in an hour or so, already a degree rise in 10 minutes.
we have just had a 0.6 rise in temps here in the last 10 mins too, suspect a lot more places into the low 70s now
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Currently 17.9C at my local weather station in Thatcham at 1039 after an overnight low of 11.5 at 0643. We reached close to 25C in the Thames Valley yesterday I reckon a gnats' whisker more today, maybe 25.4. I reckon Pershore for the hotspot today just under the date record at 27.3C
I say this especially as the official forecasts are being much more reserved in their predictions at this time. I just hope some folk who claim "it never snows here!" will get the snow they crave. The fact remains for my location, 3 1/2 inches in December 2010 and 2 inches so far this February are the best snowfalls I have had.
South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Joneseye
I think we will have to agree to disagree on that one.
December 2010 was a remarkable month with some notable snow events causing significant travel disruption. Last weekend was not even in the same league.
On to tonight the Netweather Forecast driven by the 00Z GFS looks quite interesting. I suspect our office will be very quiet tomorrow if the amount of predicted ppn falls entirely as snow.
Slightly worried by the latest radar from netweather extra - there looks to be some sleet, some rain and a large area of the pennines that is seeing freezing rain! I really hope we don't get freezing rain - that would be awful!