Joneseye
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Posts posted by Joneseye
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I know tomorrows rain is not going to be thundery..But looking at it ..Going to be very wet across the south east..inch and a half of rain in some places..With the ground so dry and heavy rain in a short time could lead to some flash flooding??
Flash flooding is likely today and tomorrow by the looks of things. Nick F mentioned in his earlier post that there is a high amount of precipitable (sp?) moisture in the air.
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Some fairly tasty temps already in the 'sweet spot':
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=daily;type=maxt
I feel that the same as yesterday that my area will be the provider rather than the benefactor with the steering winds from the south/south west. We have some comparable temps with this time yesterday according to my local weather station. If anything the humidity and dew points are higher:
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The radar for folk around my neck of the woods is livening up alright, but will it go boom? Thundery Cheers
gottolovethisweather
Edit: Look out SouthWest of Oxford & another cell NorthEast of Reading.
I think we are breeding ground rather than the benefactor today, really need something to explode in the New Forest, Salisbury Plain area.
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Convection should initiate and then, hopefully, unstable conditions indicated by LI should be able to take over and tap into that CAPE. But don't forget - it might well initiate above your head, but someone miles away might get the benefit!
That is the norm for our location
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You've bin and done it now, PP.
All, It's looking very dark and my dear brother Lookup suggests it's backbuilding on top of us, see RG14 on the radar zooms for an example of heavy rain and no damn Thunder, argghhh
Latest downpour has/had at one point produced a rain rate of 37.8mm/hr and currently I recorded 6.2mm with a fair bit more to come.
Still hopeful for a flicker or two, but getting desperate once again it seems.
Local flooding in the area of Newbury, Berkshire.
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
Cheeky little 19.1 mm in the last hour according to the thatcham weather station. Put paid to my off road adventure around Greenham common.
www.thatcham-weather.info
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A friend of mine moved over (Tucson) there this year and was woken in the early hours by a storm
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The biggest surprise for me was the CF. It marched into Cornwall in a Easterly direction until it hit Exeter at around 7 or 8 pm then just stalled. It has not moved much further on now and the meto are suggesting that it will have only just past the IofW at noon as a weakening cold front.
Yesterday was a bust but it was not a disappointment, I found it all quite interesting and some interesting data to learn from.
I like the positive attitude. First and foremost we are all weather fans on here, however the more members that can use this as a learning curve and appreciate that CAPE and LI are not the be all and end all the better.
My motto is learn from what has happened so that you can make your own opinion based on the information available. Then look to the more reliable forecasters for the detail. If there aren't any bullish posts or confusion from the more knowledgable amongst the community then err on the side of caution.
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Gonna have to watch Ice Twisters for my fun and sleep with the curtains open in case anythng occurs overnight. Night peeps
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Deja Vu in the New Forest/Salisbury plain area fellow CSE'ers? Could this attempt to create some home grown action actually work this time?
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I take it that the anticipation is that there will be a break in the CAP? I am quite new to this so please forgive my ingnorance
I think that is why many people were disappointed with the layer of Cirrus that came across some parts this morning as part of the remnants of that MCS. Had it not been cloudy it may have given more area's a chance of getting enough heat to break the CAP.
BTW sea breezes can help to form convergence zones to break the CAP also.
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Can someone more knowledgeable of storms than me explain how a cape of 2600 and a lifted index of -8 in 30c heat can only produce a light shower? I would have expected fireworks with conditions like that!
A really strong CAP in place keeping a lid on all that CAPE. We need the forcing to break the CAP, which hasn't happened anywhere yet, unfortunately
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some cells building in the channel moving N/NE keep an eye out.
Let's hope we aren't too far west!
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A new thread ahead of any potential action later. Although we are all as excited as kids before a birthday party, can we try and stick to the subject as much as possible please?!!! :lol:
Some very interesting cloud formations at the mid level here. The humidity has risen significantly in the office and I have a headache forming. Typically we tend to be a good breeding ground for storms in this part of the country.
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I am interested in that little batch of showers over the New Forest area. They seem to be in line with the cells in Northern France so maybe a trough ahead of the cold front?
The direction of travel could put them bang into the area of high dewpoints and temps..
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All the cloud is clearing here, allowing more sun to come threw infact there is a lot of blue sky and bits of AcCas about, temperatures are rising again so maybe a good sign for later?
At last a bit of positive news.
I hope this is a good learning curve for our newer members as despite all the data available and all the predictions these situations are never clear cut, at least not in the UK!
For those peeps with the NetWeather Radar if you zoom out you can see an area of precip coming into view in the Bay of Biscay. This will be associated with the Iberian activity than John Holmes illustrated using the satellite view.
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One word of caution when looking at those charts for next week is the propensity of the GFS to overdo the dew points. Predicted dew points of 22C on Monday? I will eat my hat if they get much above 16C. Still the potential is there for reasonably high CAPE levels, but don't get too disappointed if they end up being much lower than is currently predicted.
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Looks like the pennines is doing a good job of intensifying the line of showers as it passes over. Wonder if there will be enough forcing to generate some sferics? some fairly decent rainfall returns for areas in it's path at the very least.
Had some fairly intense rain here about 30 mins ago, which only appeared as the darkest shade of blue on the radar. Would have thought it would have been a light green or orange on the radar.
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Blimey where did that come from,I was just about to take the dog for a walk checked the sky sun was shining didn't look like it was going to rain but then like from nowhere it just hammered down,I new we were due some rain but at the time it was abit cloudy and sunny.Storm potential is only 35% tomorrow and will probably lower as time goes on so not getting excited,Ah well plenty of time to see something this year, I HOPE!
There is a fairly distinct line of showery activity over the western part of England at the moment. Certainly some lively downpours in there although nothing electrical at the moment.
In terms of looking at the storm chance % in the forecast I would only ever use this as a rough guidance. This is taken from the latest GFS run every 6 hours hence why it keeps changing. We should all know by now that storm chances in a showery airflow by its very nature should mean hit and miss.
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Some fairly decent echoes already off the coast of Cornwall (SW Approaches in old language), wonder if this is associated with the area of instability mentioned by Harry?
All the ingredients are there for today. I shall be watching the Netweather radar with interest today
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I am gonna pin all my hopes on the area of precip over Devon reaching here between 1400-1500. That will defo have put the kybosh on that happening then...
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Looks like a rinse and repeat of yesterday with similar wind vectors. I think the key to seeing any thundery activity will be whether the showers hit during the peak heating times. Another good opportunity for photographs today - enjoy peeps
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Stu, blimey! It's only not quite 2pm!
Plenty of time and certainly the time of year to get convection happening right through into the evening!
Showers seem to very pulse type and disorganised though, 3rd shower of the day ongoing here and all have been heavy.
Running the radar timelapse they most certainly do seem like they are of a pulsing type. A lovely skyscape around Newbury at the mo, but certainly not expecting any thunder here. The areas closer to the centre of the low pressure (yes Stuart this includes you
) look to have a better chance albeit quite shortlived. -
Anything in the pipeline for us?
im assuming not as theres no one here! Is there not even another cold spell coming our way?
A big fat nopesy!
My advice is give it a week before looking again and u never know. In the mean time enjoy the wind and rain....
Ps 1000 posts... Only took me 5 years..
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Another thumbs up from me!
One would hope that this new thread sets the benchmark for how posts should be constructed in the model thread.
The thing that irks me in the current model thread (especially during winter) is that we have such a rich source of information available for free on the Internet that is perfect for illustration purposes. I would be expecting to see this information linked to or shown in almost every post yet I have to trawl through so much conjecture to get to the precious nuggets of information.
The radar for folk around my neck of the woods is livening up alright, but will it go boom? 
) look to have a better chance albeit quite shortlived.
im assuming not as theres no one here! 
3rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I missed it as I was getting my barnet cut! we had a brief shower. As is usual the showers split either side of Newbs and we missed the heavier bursts..