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Posts posted by Joneseye
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I reckon that will produce convection but probably a couple or three degrees higher for CB's. Not looking likely here as we are still only 20C and no advancing trough to destabilise like last night. Could get a sharp shower though.
Ok - thanks for coming back to me :-)
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Does anyone know what temperatures are required for convection to kick in today? I vaguely recall Brickfielder mentioning 22C based on the ascents this morning...
Reason I ask is that the sun is breaking through now so fingers crossed we can reach the magic figure required.
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Afternoon All,
fresh thread and hopefully a fresh and mature attitude
Looking at the Net Weather Extra Radar and clicking on the Euro View you can see the trough extend all the way down to the Alps:
To the south and west of the trough in France you can see many individaul cells popping up so undoubtedly they have clearer skies and high temps. Finally it is starting to brighten up here, which may lead to something later on.
Looking further ahead over the next 7 days the forecast is for high temps and humidity with the chance of afternoon showers kicking off. I am fairly sure there will be the threat of organised activity spreading up from France over that period as well.
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I see the rollercoaster of emotions is in full throttle mode again this morning...
For those of you with cloud cover this morning, just remember that the sun is pretty much at it's strongest at this time of year.
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Remember that the peak of the activity is forecast for between 15 and 18Z...
The cell to the north of Oxford (Silverstone) is delivering some serious rainfall rates at the mo...
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Some nice low and mid level instability already this morning from about 06:30.. to my amateur eye this looks like a good start to the day.
Alas I am more likely to be in the initiation zone rather than in the thick of things later on, but will be glued to the radar and to this thread to see how the day pans out. Good luck all and if you miss out try not to be too despondant as your time will come!
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Looking increasingly likely that it will be broken next week in the south
Lots of time yet for it all to go the way of the pear... Will be interesting to see what happens with the disturbance predicted for overnight Sunday into Monday. A lot will depend on whether that materialises and the impacts thereafter...
Sunday is looking like the warmest day of the year so far, will it be warm enough to break the 80F mark.... time will telll
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8.4 for me please Carol
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Ooops! A very late and not very well thought out 6.2 for me
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3.4 for me please Bob
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Morning all,
light dusting of dandruff here.. first of the winter and first since April 2008.
:lol:
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The April snow event was the most snow I have seen in my 6.5 years at my house.. don't have any pictures, but I was gobsmacked when I looked out the window 1st thing to a winter wonderland and heavy snow falling.
The summer was fairly unremarkable when it came to heat and thunderstorms. There were 2 notable bursts of rain, notable by the fact that the rain came from the east of the house and by the intensity, which left my garden flooded and almost flooded my garage.
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Stick me down for 3.5 please.
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Almost one degrees differance now between Hadley and Manley. Quite unusual to see such a large deviation between the two. I'd expect at least a 0.5c reduction from Hadley at the end of the month.
Hi Gavin,
I think it has been mentioned before that Hadley tend to have higher stations than Manley, or maybe it was the other way round? Whilst we have not had an inversion as such this month, one would expect the lower stations to have had more in the way of frost under clear skies with very little wind.
Regards
Ian
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The perfect winter for CS England would be predominantly mild with average rainfall and above average sunshine levels. After all the cost of energy is ridiculously high and we wouldn't want a prolonged cold spell lasting 3 or more months!
I would ideally like a couple of weeks of cold weather from around the 23rd of December through to about the 6th January. This would be with a channel low pressure straddling a southerly tracking jet stream pulling in really cold SE winds and giving about a foot of snow for the Thames Valley. I would then be happy for the odd isolated spell of cold weather interspersed with Atlantic dominated SW winds, but nothing too stormy or wet.
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Overhead thunderstorm in Newbury at 1715 with some real close CG and a microburst of rain lasting 8 minutes. The rain was being blown from east to west on strong winds that gave it a tropical, monsoon-like feel.
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Hi Paul,
any chance we can have the 7 day forecast updated to the summer version? I ask this as it is still showing as giving a snow forecast.
Regards
Ian
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I thought I would try a new method this month and right down a load of numbers and pull them out of a hat... (I obviously have too much time on my hands!)
My punt is 15.0C
hopefully I will fare a little better than my pitiful efforts so far this year...
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Wow! What a day - glad you are all ok!
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33.1C, July 3rd - Wisley
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Just seen this clip from the BBC Website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7407644.stm
Some decent ones on youtube... I liked this one:
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Love the pictures... the 2nd one is realy menacing and is reminiscent of storms I saw in the 80's whilst out sailing. The overshooting anvil in the final shot is immense, that must have been one serious storm!!
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Just wanted to take this opportunity to wish you all good luck and good chasing!
I will be glued to this section reading your accounts of the chasing, eating and drinking...
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Ooops late again...
8.5 for me please...
Storm/convective Discussion 26th June >>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Thanks John - we have the Dew Points, but I fear the sun may have popped out just a little to late to get to the required temeratures without any help from convergence etc.
The London area (Northolt and Heathrow stations reading 22C currently) almost has the required temps.. I wonder if anything will kick off there in the next hour or so...