Joneseye
-
Posts
627 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Joneseye
-
-
Well the forecast line is clear on the radar but it's not very active!
It has just passed over Newbs and has started to pick up intensity. Not sure the rumbles I heard were from my belly or not
-
Paul - I was just browsing through the worldwide weather 7 day forecasts and I think the 'feels like' part is in need of some attention as the temps are showing the same as the actual temps.
Thanks
Ian
-
Hi Paul,
I too am loving the new worldwide weather feature on the website.
I have encountered a few issues, particularly when putting in locations in the USA. I have tried unsuccessfully to put in the forecast for Las Vegas and Los Angeles. I get a lot of locations in South America, but nothing for the states.
Ian
-
i love extreme weather of any sort! even extreme rainfall gets my adrenaline pumping! i dont think thunder will get as north as my location! i wonder just how much rain will fall this evening/tonight in the south east?
hi there - I have been wondering the same thing myself since Monday this week. The 06Z has shifted the projection slightly in terms of the sweet spot for rainfall - I reckon somewhere like East Meon to Petersfield area is the best spot:
-
So has Jane-Louise now had a storm?!! My God have you picked yourself off the floor yet? LOL!
Not even a drop of rain in BA 12 this weekend : yesterday a few sharp showers missed by a few miles and nothing came remotely near until the late afternoon when some heavy showers moved in from the Bristol Channel but they stayed approx 20 miles to the N then E/NE!
An ironic occurence yesterday : my fiancé and I took a day out to Sidmouth. At 13.00 - 13.30ish the only shower anywhere in England was over Sidmouth!! Thankfully it cleared to hot sunshine for us to sit on the beach later!
Our turn tomorrow, Andy - was practically bone dry here as well all weekend in RG14
-
Tomorrow looks interesting, the occluded front lifts N and E to lie across northern England and N Wales to the south we have a moist maritime flow and with low pressure close to the SW and with surface heating it will be come increasingly unstable across southern England where we see sunshine. Scattered thunderstorms look to develop mainly south of a line from Swansea to Norwich - Severn Estuary across to Thames Estuary looks favoured for slow moving thunderstoms looking at the CAPE charts. Severe potential looks low, given weak vertical shear - though fairly high precipitable water will lend to torrential rain and perhaps localised flooding given slow-moving nature of storms and we may see some hail too. SW'erly jet near SE may organise storms into line segments.
Fingers crossed about tomorrow as it looks like the area's that missed all the fun over the weekend are much more in the firing line. I notice the 7 day forecast from GFS is predicting approaching 30mm of rain for my location tomorrow.. good for the garden
-
It's been cool, it's been miserable, it's seemed as if summer may never come, but by the end of this week all of that will be forgotten with some much needed warm and sunny weather on the way.<br/> <br/><a href="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=304;sess=">Read full story here</a>
is it time to get the 7 day forecast updated with the heat index rather than the wind chill?
-
Thanks for the link at the start... off to Thailand in early May where the UV index will be up in the 14-15 region - uh oh!
-
Looking through those articles and looking at the forecast I would agree that somebody is after some publicity (was surprised to find it wasn't Piers Corbyn!). After 2 seasonal forecasts that were opposite to what Met Office predicted (not hard to do) and the likes of the BBC are running the story. I do hope the British public has learnt to pour a heap of salt all over that forecast.
-
I was interested to see what kind of intensity of rainfall fell on Madeira to cause such devastation... and came across this:
http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disasters/21-02-2010/112311-madeira_calamity-0
111mm in 6 hours is pretty intense and has all the hallmarks of Boscastle and the floods of July 2007. Throw the mountainous geography into the equation and it is easy to see why such devastation was caused.
-
Paul - thanks to you and the team for making an already great product even better!
There are not many subscription based services on the Internet that I would part money for, but this is well worth the subscription fee. This really helps to illustrate nowcasting to my team at work and brings things to life.
Roll on the spring summer storms
-
whos got the ppn type radar ? what is that coming into the channel + northern france ??
it looks heavy lol
Here is a local one:
Looking at a loop of the main radar the stuff over towards the Cherbourg peninsula is arcing slowly in NE'ly direction. I would suggest that 'if' it reaches our area we will have too high temps and dew points for it to give anything other than rain.
-
Hello Joneseye.
I leave near Wash Common down the valley road estate and are often prone to colder spells with snow, ice and frost even when the town centre has rain for example. The 10cm I measured at 9am was more like 9cm but whatever, it now amounts to double the amount lying i.e approx 8 inches level cover compared to the previous 6 inches that had thawed to 4 inches.
I'm AdamAnt
that snow will most likely still be on the ground (well certainly locally it will) just in time for the cold reload after the weekend. But heck, what do I know?Cheers
STORMBOY
PS the DP has finally reached above zero in the last hour here.
Nice one Stormboy I know where you are and that explains why you keep getting more than me :lol: The elevation certainly helps plus you are closer to the downs, which means you get more precipitation than me!
As for the re-load the % chances have certainly gone up since yesterday. The form horse this winter has been the cold up until now.. and to think that most winters we drool over charts like the ones we are seeing only for the actual outcome is mild where Greece gets all the snow... hmmm
-
Although not in Newbury I'm off to your SE near Tadley and measured 8cm of new snow an hour or so ago.
Hi Kiwi,
that ties in quite nicely with the 24hour accumulations, which has been zoomed in on my postcode:
As you can see my home postcode is right on the edge of the green - whereas you are slap bang in the middle of the green.
Quite interesting that our location has been right on the edge of all the snow dumpings on each occasion
EDIT - when I say snow dumpings I mean the one before xmas, the one last week and the one overnight last night. This is mainly due to outr location being in the valley.
-
Well, still it snows (11 hours and counting) here in Newbury.
190mm i.e nearly 8 inches laying snow at 9am so I'm heading into my 8th continuous day of snow cover on top of the 8 continous days I had prior to Xmas.
Not so good for those attempting to get to work as the additional 4 inches or so we had overnight is laying thick on the roads too.
Still looking good here in my eyes.
Very lucky that it is my day off today.
Snowy Cheers
STORMBOY
PS awaiting the anticipated reload after the weekend, its not ending yet!
Hi Stormboy,
as a fellow Newbrarian I would like to know whereabouts you live, do you live in Newbury itself or on the hillier outskirts? I ask as I measured the snow this morning and it came to 6cm, which is quite a disparity to the nearly 10cm you have measured overnight.
I live on Fir Tree Lane just off the A4 so a fairly flat location!
Cheers Ian
-
hi all,
interesting situation unfolding for today. Reham (spelling?) with our local forecast this morning appeared to be backing away from snow for coastal parts of Hampshire/Sussex/Dorset and also seemed to play down precipitation amounts (although she did then say that if the precip intensified it could get interesting). Then, on the way to work John Hammond on 5 live indicated that for the most part away from Cornwall it would be snow.
Channel Islands was the coldest place this morning apparently! once we pick up the southeasterly wind we should tap into a little bit of that colder air ahead of the front. Also, looking at the rainfall radar, that front is currently VERY active, which is a good sign.
So, what's going to happen!!? no idea - it's certainly marginal. Heart says the precip will be heavy enough to be snow, head says rain turning to light snow and then petering out.
Paul
I think that is a fairly accurate summation of how things will pan out.
Elevation will help in this scenario, although that only covers a small percentage of our area.
-
i have seen mixed charts with regards to the precip type for tues and weds. some say snow, some rain and others say nothing at all as they suggest it wont make it this far.
it really is a pickle which the models seem to be having real trouble coping with, having at least tried to follow those topics.
still a very slight thaw here, but nothing too drastic. still very icy roads and snizzle all round
Another example of nowcasting coming up methinks!
Somewhere on the boundary could get a lot of snow tomorrow into Weds, only thing is knowing exactly where! The cold pool aloft has diminished slightly, which means that elevation will be key to getting prolonged snowfall.
A close watch is needed, especially for those who have to commute!
-
Just looking at latest gfs pub run... and would like to ask a quick question, mentioned this in the scotland thread and had it suggested i pop it in here for some of our experienced posters to answer:
It shows us 'warming up' to -5 850s and possibly even 0's... then it shows the -5 and colder reappearing from almost nowhere eg no draw off the continent.
Is this because the cold is so embedded over us and with the ground utterly frozen that we can quickly generate our own cold or even cool any southwest stream that may appear?
I am no expert and certainly don't know the answer to this question, but I know Nick F raised a similar point on the previous thread. This almost seems like too complicated a scenario to factor into any model guidance, however it has appeared on a couple of model runs now I believe.
-
Had a flurry here in Newbs earlier..
As for the weekend onwards it looks like being a showery regime setting in, which means that some places may see light flurries whereas some may get the odd moderate burst. A case of nowcasting will be the order of the day.
As for people using the BBC internet forecast then don't! Use the local foreacast from Net-Weather that updates 4 times a day. OK it takes it's data feed from the GFS, but it is a much better general guide.
By the way it got down to -11.2C in Thatcham yesterday morning just after 0700:
http://www.thatcham-weather.info/
Regards
Ian
-
Cant see much precip from this and only very light so drizzle/ snizzle as i suggested. Hope im wrong but just dont think this weekend will deliver
The event we have just had over the last 24 hours is proof how these precip charts are useless at this sort of range.
I had been following the front coming south from 5 days out and it was not until 36 hours notice that the GFS picked up on the threat of something more than the light precip that it was showing. The good thing is that we are edging ever closer to finding out.
-
In case anyone was wondering where the 'sweetspot' was overnight - check this out...
Somewhere to the West of Clanfield must have iro 50cm, surely?
-
Just been out and measured on top of the boat ( Newbury) its between 2.5 - 3 inches still snowing but just lightly with
A lovely picture out there this morning snow covering everything including the neighbours washing line... just about to ride my bike to work - should be fun!!
-
Not been out to measure yet, but we have had a dumping overnight in Newbs and we are on the edge of the sweet spot..
Somewhere to the north of Portsmouth around the Butser Hill area must have had over a foot of snow or more looking at the 24 hour accumulations - amazing!!
-
What are the chances for 15-20 cm for Reading? Im no expert, so let the more experinced answer it.
All of the models I have seen that give details show a prolonged period of moderate to heavy precipitation from 1800 this evening right through til about the same time tomorrow evening.
Based on the rough principle of 1mm of rain = 1cm snow this could indeed mean a lot of snow. I would say that I find it hard to believe as I have never seen that amount of snow in the 7 years I have lived in this house. For me I have totted up about 35mm in Newbury based on the automated NetWeather forecast, which would mean 35cm!! being realistic I would be happy to see a 1/3 of that amount!!
that snow will most likely still be on the ground (well certainly locally it will) just in time for the cold reload after the weekend. But heck, what do I know?
Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Been keeping an eye on that too. It does look to be very marginal from this range, but interestingly the track of the low pressure has been pushed further south by the model output in recent days and this southward movement IMO has prompted the advisories. The track will be important as the northern protion is likely to have the snow for the longest period. So in true winter style it will be more about nowcasting than forecasting IMO.
Also worth noting that the forecasted precipitation is likely to be heavy. The heavier precipitation can be conducive to turn back to snow due to the effects of evaporative cooling.
One to watch, but not to get too excited about for now. We do not have entrenched cold air over the UK like we did in December.