[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM GFS firming up on northern blocking 216/240 hrs good way off into fantasy island but a lot of consistency so a fairly reasonable chance of cold wintery weather in spring after a wet looking Easter,all in all grim.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,GFS firming up on northern blocking with April looking more like January weather very disappointing after a long depressive winter with lots of cloud and rain.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM and GEM 216 to 240hrs showing Greenland high with some very worrying temperatures for spring on the horizon if these. Charts were to come to fruition.In the meantime some chilly feeling days ahead after a mild period in March.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all, GFS not giving up on a sting in the tail for March will the SSW show it’s late hand or not that is the question.Personally high pressure bringing dry weather where ever it’s position be it northern blocking or not is what we desperately need in England to dry out.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,GFS keen as usual in fantasy island to bring high level blocking nearly 3 weeks after SSW occurred,still a possibility of a colder end to March on the cards.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Cambrian Hi excellent summary.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,GFS in fantasy island smelling the products of SSW ie northern blocking with polar blast over UK,would match the 10/14 day usually taken after a major SSW to show it’s hand  regarding northern blocking.Very interesting in weather terms to find the final outcome of this situation.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,ECM showing the colder outlook with positioning and orientation of high pressure still all eyes on SSW and what happens around the middle of March to high level blocking.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM/GFS /UKMO/ICON all showing some very cold air in Europe in fantasy island all about the positioning and orientation of the Scandinavian high if it starts to filter over the UK.Nothing clear cut as yet,interesting to say the least one thing certain no spring like weather on show as far as I’m concerned.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,charts this morning continue with this northeastern blocking versus Atlantic lows will be interesting to see if this time blocking wins the battle and keeps the CET for March below average.May take a while yet as usual to see the winner,but keeps the interest on a late spring any bets.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Derecho Hi yes you are totally correct as we can only give a 95% to 120hrs but I feel this major SSW of  which we are still learning a lot about is where I have based my opinion on,of course it is just my personal opinion.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,northern blocking now looks 90% which is very high in terms of weather so slightly different ideas in that less cold air from the Atlantic lows will mix with the northern blocking especially in the south this may or may not happen lots of uncertainty with that scenario at present.March has a 75% of being below the average CET so generally a cold wintery month is on the cards after one of the wettest mild February on record,what you don’t get today you will sure has he’ll get tomorrow.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,ECM firming up on this northern blocking with low pressure to the south feeding in this progressively colder easterly feed.March looking more and more wintery with the effects of the major SSW showing it’s hand nothing would surprise me regarding this coming month including the white stuff.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,charts beginning to show a cold easterly from northern blocking after a rather cold changeable period,GEM may be a bit extreme at 240 hrs but the writing looks to be on the wall for a cold march due to major SSW,possibly a below CET with spring on hold.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM very interesting at the unreliable 216/240 hrs with a Scandinavian block that has mild 850 hpa with a south/easterley feed but that could change very quickly into much colder air stream,one to keep an eye on possible SSW showing it’s hand.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Met4Cast Hi a usually safe statement to make with global warming,but I feel spring will be held up for sometime I don’t think we have to wait to long to find out the effects of this major SSW.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,as I mentioned before it’s looking like spring could be on hold for sometime the charts showing a day or so mildish the rest on the cold side with even some snow for some.With the polar vortex well and truly shredded and a solid wind reversal the effects of this could be substantial for northern blocking within 10 days or so,March CET temperatures will be very interesting I think this site will be very active this March for cold lovers.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all.GFS deep into fantasy island possibly picking up this major SSW with northern blocking showing its hand.A definite chance that March could have a below CET and turn out a cold over all month.
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,Charts firming up on a possible cold March with cold rain and snow in the mix pity that early February was not showing the same as March,still I’m afraid spring will be held up for sometime yet overcoat and gloves will be needed so keep them out after this very mild / mild spell is over.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,Looking at the charts this morning with no sign of SSW showing any high level blocking a possible end to hope of some wintery weather to end this winter.I will wait another week before I close the book on this depressing winter.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,GFS holding it’s forecast at around 216 hrs with a notable storm followed by an Arctic air flow with a strong chance of snow over most of the UK.I am sure that we are all following this continual show of cold Arctic air that GFS keeps turning out will it come to fruition,certainly SSW likely very much involved so uncertainty still there at the time lapse of 9 or 10 days minimum.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,Geffs ensembles 850 hpa still showing well below the mean with the operation one to discard so 10 days out or so still looking like a cold incursion also changeable with a possibility of some white stuff before this winter ends.Will have to except charts to chop and change for a while till the charts get a handle on the situation and SSW making it even more difficult.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,has SSW finally come to the rescue ECM/GEM/UKMO all showing northern blocking 168hrs onwards hopefully following on tomorrow with this positive move towards a cold end to this winter.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,Met Office extended forecast seems to be nudging away from the colder mid February to a milder Atlantic regime,SSW not proving much help at present for cold seekers fingers crossed for some signs of strong northern blocking soon as time is running out.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,UKMO and ICON the best charts for cold while ECM goes on one of its walk about still lots of chopping and changing for next weekend,but I remain quietly confident of northern blocking showing it self on the charts as we progress into the coming week.