[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM continues with the pressure rise ie Greenland /North west blocking with low pressure to our north east bringing a very cold / cold air flow over the UK.This set up could bring some snow to central and eastern England which the met office extended had added from mid February,although still 9 or 10 days out definitely looking more positive.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,ECM at last showing Greenland high / northern blocking from 192 hrs this is with out a doubt SSW leading the way with Exeter / Glosea who have so much technical information to feed into their forecasts that gives them a definite advantage.Expect Greenland high to become the leader from mid February in regards to UK weather pattern.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM  / GEM  looking to build Greenland high at 240 hrs yes it always seems to show something positive at that range then disappears,but at least it’s showing so something to encourage cold lovers.At least a dryer period looks positive after these low pressure systems leave are shores.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM / GEM keen in the 9 /10 day period building the Scandinavian high to start to influence the UK weather while GFS takes the fast forward option of Atlantic controlled S/westerlyflow.I do not normally predict in regards to the charts but I feel the end product after the weekend lows have resolved their final track and positioning is still very much up for debate,could be a surprise on the cards,we shall see.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,charts chopping and changing with the progression of the Atlantic lows and their tracking across the UK,still great uncertainty in regards to snow line and how far the milder Atlantic air will push over the country.I can not remember such an uncertain ability to track these lows at such a short time period,Carol on BBC just stated that these low pressures are causing big headaches to the meteorologist experts.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,big climb down from ECM tonight to follow GFS route keeping any snow to the normal Scotland and possibly very far north,leaving UKMO on its own to install the hope that a colder theme could bring snow at least to wales and the north midlands.Must say I felt confident of snow to many parts of the UK this weekend,but after tonight’s chart’s it looks very doubtful.

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,GFS still going opposite to ECM /UKMO all on the Atlantic low progression heading into the north of UK from there continuing north bringing a mild air stream over the UK.Always brings some confusion when such a major difference from American models and UK /European models,will make for some very interesting model watching over the next 24/48hrs.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Nick F Hi yes the Met Office extended has been stating the dry northerly air flow for some time,in regards to snow this weekend I’m sure some parts of the UK will get a considerable amount.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,American models GFS/GEM keen on bringing the Atlantic low further north which would bring milder weather to the south and keeping snow to the north.UKMO a peach Atlantic low tracking to the south of UK keeping the cold feed over all of the UK along with snow for most.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,Fax 120 hrs show a very messy and complicated picture,I mentioned yesterday the position of the low looked somewhat south of the UK.latest Fax chart showing main low of the south west of Ireland with secondary low further north,going to be another 24/48 hrs before we hopefully find the correct progression but more complications if it hangs around which seem possible.Hopefully all will see some snow from this situation.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,ECM giving every where snow over a period of 2/3days long time since I have seen charts like ECM tonight get the sledges out time to prepare for a very wintery period.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Kasim Awan Yes nothing positive but a trend all the same forecasting above 120/144 hrs is are limit for accuracy.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GFS going for the full Monty.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy Hi yes as ECM operation shows that progression and as you say the most likely.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Fax chart at 120hrs shows the Atlantic low track south of UK would be nice if it kept that progression into the continent.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM a step back in regards to snow in the south but charts still not sure of low pressure tracking best option fax when in the more reliable range.Not worth looking at anything past 144/168hrs.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 LRD Hi Met Office extended does.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

ECM showing all of UK under the 528 dam 192 hrs onwards not bad considering no reliability on high level blocking.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,Gem once again pick of the bunch keeping the Atlantic low further south keeping the south of the UK in the colder air around 168hrs with snow on the agenda,GFS similar after a short mild interlude in the south.I think we have been here before with the south missing out on the white stuff,still uncertainties regarding this time scale let alone after in regards to pressure rise position after the low pressure heads into the continent.Met Office extended still sticking to a northerly after low pressure so not sure where this predicted high will form,possibly North west of the UK let’s see what ECM comes up with.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,Gem this morning showing northern blocking and a peach for cold lovers,very positive looking charts this morning for a cold push over the UK with snow a strong possibility.If this scenario happens I will take my hat off  to Exeter /Glosea.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,Charts looking encouraging for the snow starved south those low pressure systems embedded into that colder arctic air stream could deposit quite a dump in a large area.I do feel that some northern blocking could and should start to show it’s hand fingers crossed.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 northwestsnow Hi yes but a Greenland high can show it’s self with very short notice and with Met office extended still plugging a dryer cold northerly around mid month onwards the charts could start to show northern blocking.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,ECM /GFS / GEM all amazingly agreeing around the 9/10 day of low pressure crossing from west to east bringing the colder air from the north to filter it’s way over the UK.From then on is anyone’s guess but finally looking to be the start of this long awaited northerly shot that is of course if the 3 models are correct at 9/10 days out.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,ECM the pick of the bunch at 240 hrs all be it open to change at that range the low pressure kept at a southerly track all due to the key to every door Greenland high pressure will it be the long awaited northerly that the Met office has been plugging which seems for ever or just another damp squib.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,Met office stating in their extended forecast the uncertainty around the 5th February into mid February possibly 50/50 cold /average/mild take your pick but still saying mid month northerly on the cards.Looking at the charts this evening GFS brings in the Northwesterly/Northerly at 168 hrs be it a short blast 48 hrs till High pressure takes over from the south.Time for patience another 24/ 48 hrs to get closer to the possible solution.