Anthony Burden
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Evening all;Big upgrade from met office extended my suggestion is you read this then take in the 12z charts before coming to any conclusion.Exciting times ahead I feel,I think I will wait to comment any further after the 12z ECM.
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19 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Morning. Now the models seem to be settling on the cold northerly next week, thought I might start to post some thoughts.
00z GFS looks a bit too bullish with the Atlantic encroachment from the SW next week, also it blows up a low south of Iceland early next week which phases with the Atlantic low system to the south - which the other models don't have.
Be interesting how well the models handle how far the south the deep cold gets and how far north milder air gets - the boundary bringing a high risk / high reward of heavy snow or rain wherever it sets up.
Lots for the models to resolve next week, but think the 00z GFS looks a little too bullish with the Atlantic push, has a habit of blowing up lows too much.
Morning Nick,yes the boundary line from the very cold to less cold is going to produce some very disruptive weather ie heavy snow.
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ECM very interesting tonight 168 hrs to 192 hrs small low pressure crossing the north of uk from northwest possible snow event,while another low pressure moves from west to east in the south of uk possible snow event.Lots to get your head around but a possible memorable beginning to next week fingers crossed of course.
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Evening all,American models especially GEM keen on allowing the Atlantic lows to push up and effect the south of the UK as usual if this happens how far does the milder air filter north.Still at least 8 or 9 days off so a lot of uncertainty the ECM tonight might give a better idea but I feel 48 hrs is needed before we can even start to clarify the track of these possible low pressures
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Evening all,ECM finally coming on board with others regarding an extended cold period,still open regarding temperatures -10 hpa a loft never far away could still become severe especially in northern areas so going to feel this possible long fetched cold/verycold period.
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Just now, Hullsnow87 said:
What do you mean?
-10 hpa showing it’s hand over the UK that does not happen much in this country the met office has stated that severe weather looks a small bet,my version is that the more we see those -10hpa temperatures a loft the greater the chance.
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GFS Nudging towards severe weather,met office update
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Morning all,models are struggling post 168 hrs with a changeable weather pattern temperatures will the northerly find it’s way through the whole of the UK or will the south especially,be under attack from the Atlantic lows.Nothing resolved as yet until then snow showers looks a good bet in the southeast possibly pushing into central southern areas as well with -10 hpa going to feel very cold Monday and cold for the rest of the week with just a short pick up of single digit temperatures end of the week,so lots to enjoy and hopefully longer term.
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7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Saturday 6 January re 500 charts etc
The ECMWF looks to show deeper cold air advecting south of the 500 and surface ridging moving to around Iceland area. Date shown is 16 Jan, a week Tuesday! How long the upper ridge might last here is not clear as a largish upper trough is shown on the far nw of the EC chart.
The NOAA 500 charts continue out to 8-14 with the upper ridge shown se-nw Greenland, the actual contour centre is about 55N 20W with the +ve height now shown as +390 DM over se Greenland on the 6-10 day chart. Similar on the 8-14, +ve is 270 DM. Upstream of this the pattern looks conducive to this probably extending some way beyond the 14 day period?
This pattern has been consistently shown since about Xmas Day, obviously a developing set of charts but consistent in its direction and development. Just how long this pattern will last, how cold the UK will get, let alone will it snow is for the synoptic charts to gradually converge on what is likely.
The UK surface and upper air only extend to the 12 th so obviously little of the above is on their public available charts.
Given the consistency of the NOAA charts, now being picked up by ECMWF I would be surprised if deep cold was not being forecast by UK Met before next weekend! Egg on face possible!
Usual charts below
Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis
WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG
UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis chartsHi John,big call to make but certainly finally balanced very interesting times.
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Morning all,ECM showing a mostly cold dry period untill middle of next week with a small pick up of single figure temperatures in the second half before another possible Arctic blast with some snow possible from low pressure to our north east,all still up for change at that time range but still lots going on weather wise with the polar vortex adding to exciting times.
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Evening all,not much to add tonight except enjoy this long wintery spell that seems to be excepted by ECM/GFS and met office extended outlook,dry to begin first phase,then phase two hopefully involving some white stuff.That of course is possibley nine to ten days away still so fingers crossed ECM will follow that scenario this evening so all eyes on the charts in this exceptional period coming up,fingers crossed.
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Evening all,The reliable time frame show a very cold easterly air flow over central southern England with frost freezing fog and it will feel raw in that easterly wind untill the middle of next week.From then the high pressure feed has a slightly higher 850 hpa temperature allowing a nudge up of temperatures for 2/3days following that all models at present bring the Greenland high and a second wave of Arctic weather that at shows real prospects of some severe weather all still some time away in weather terms,personally I will be keeping a close eye on the met office extended outlook to see if they change from a low likely severe spell.
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6 minutes ago, MattH said:Hi.
I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone who questions this should change their mind after reading the below. The reason it is worth doing this is because there is no better, clearer, example of the importance and connections between those upstream, Pacific developments and the downstream influence.
I'll attempt to highlight and stitch this together using some of the usual plots and charts which tell the story so very well indeed and it is this which, hopefully, helps people to at least better understand the influences of the GSDM and what to look for moving forward.
OVERVIEW: Firstly, we have just endured a very wet December, this comes as no surprise given what happened to the AAM in late November. Interestingly, seasonal models all pointed towards December being a +ve NAO month, in keeping with the long-term teleconnections with regard El Nino and a +IOD in early winter. The late Nov and early Dec cold spell can be linked back to the behaviour of the GSDM too, while what followed through much of December certainly can and what is happening now and looking ahead, most certainly is. Despite a weakened stratospheric polar vortex, it is the troposphere that is 'leading the dance' rather than the stratosphere for the most part even though it is lending a hand.
The late Nov/early Dec blocked pattern has links to the temporary rise in the AAM in mid-November, with the usual lag in place. We can see this first evolution in the below plots...
The second and more obvious evolution was then the more pronounced fall in AAM through late Nov as the MJO returned to the W Hem and westerly inertia was removed from the GSDM budget and, as usual, AAM fell along with a -FT (Frictional Torque) and -MT (Mountain Torque) event. The result was, as ever, propagation through the extra-tropics and then into the mid-latitudes of more westerly momentum, propped up by easterly momentum at circa 30-40N - Remember the inflated Azores high in the run-up to Christmas? - We can see how the +AAM anomalies, in particular, were distributed through the atmosphere within the usual window of approximately 14 days. No surprise we then saw an enhanced period of +AO and +NAO conditions just before mid-December onwards.
Lastly, comes the 'big event' within the last week or so in terms of the pronounced rise in AAM. Once again, in complete contrast to what happened through mid-November, with a lag of course, we can see how the marked rise in AAM has allowed the propagation through the sub-tropics and into the mid-latitudes of more easterly inertia (-AAM) very well indeed, this is particularly obvious on the relative AAM transports plot, as highlighted below. Once again, no surprises at all and of which has been documented by the usual few on the group we are now seeing a complete reversal of that +AO and +NAO period with an array of mid-latitude and, eventually, high latitude blocking patterns.
We can also see this visually on the zonal wind plots at 100hPa (top of the trop/bottom of the strat) too.
While like in many areas of meteorology, there is never often a usual "a+b=c evolution", but this is about as close to that as you can get. We have certainly had help from the stratosphere here mind because a robust stratospheric polar vortex that is downwelling westerly winds into the troposphere can often be the dominant player, overriding what has occurred over the last month. There is likely to be some 'help' here from the El Nino and eQBO combination this winter as the sPV continues to remain disorganised and far weaker than it can be at this point in the winter with far less influence on the troposphere too.
When it comes to the AAM it is crucial to be able to accept and acknowledge when there are other overriding influences and counterbalances. Tamara et al often talk about not taking the MJO at 'face value', it is similar with the AAM, but when you combine the usefulness of the GSDM and all it incorporates then, as I have perfectly examined here, nobody can ever say the likes of the GSDM and the AAM is "flawed or useless" when it comes to pre-empting NWP, at times, and also gauging how the broader patterns may evolve and shift.
As I mentioned at the start of the post, I wanted to put this one together because there is no better example of the usefulness of the GSDM than what has occurred over the last month or so. The evolution and 'story' of the atmosphere have been well played out in these plots.
For those who want some winter weather after the last few weeks of very wet conditions then 'this is your time'. We approach mid-winter with such solid footing for cold synoptics that it should be a pleasure to watch the more unusual patterns being modelled in NWP and, interestingly, this continues to link in well with the majority if not all of the seasonal models with regards to how Jan and Feb and perhaps even Mar should progress. Winter is about to start...
With regards, Matt.
Hi Matt,great read thanks for your outstanding knowledge to this site very much appreciated.
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Morning all,high pressure holding strong Geffs ensembles showing a short uptick in 850 hpa for a few days before heading south again just the position of the high pressure over us before hopefully the Greenland high takes over.There is some hints that Atlantic lows may start to try and encroach from the south/southwest but all very speculative at a long range out frost freezing fog and possibly ice days on the cards for the reliable.
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Evening all,charts beginning to firm up on a possible long fetched cold/verycold period as give it’s due met office extended outlook has been saying for some time.January could break some records regarding low temperatures which we are certainly not use to for some considerable time,will be interesting to see if ECM begins to strengthen a Greenland pressure rise as GFS and GEM are keen on out in fantasy island
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Morning all,Geffs ensembles show the mean temperatures at 850hpa well below average for 10 days plus with a few days around average after this mild wet period comes gratefully to an end.High pressure looking the form horse as met office mentions with frosts freezing fog when clear skies above,orientation and position of the high will determine cloud cover and temperatures but cold looks the form horse how cold will depend as already mentioned.
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Evening all,looking now at cold/verycold dry period with frost freezing fog on the Menu how severe this possible long running period could get is still up for grabs,one thing for sure the longer we stay in this cold/verycold theme low pressure may well try to advance and that white stuff which in the south we have been starved of could well show it’s hand as the met office extended outlook suggest.
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Morning all,Happy New Year to you all great chart watching all about the positioning of this forecast high pressure regarding depth of cold,different scenarios with ECM and GFS but the pick of the bunch goes to UKM 168hrs that would bring some Scandinavian air across our shores and would feel raw to say the least.Still if UKM produces that chart at 120/144hrs that would rubber stamp for me a very cold period on it’s way.
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Morning all,ECM is a peach this morning could not ask for better Synoptics that’s of course if you like frost freezing fog and snow all looks on the cards.Lots to look forward to in this month going to feel this very cold period,possibly a long period of sub zero temperatures,get the gloves hats coats and sledges ready your going to need them.
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Evening all,good all round agreement of a cold /verycold period of wintery weather lots of shuffling to continue on position of high pressure,time frame regarding reliability 144/168 hrs maximum any continental feed likely to be very cold so all eyes on the positioning and orientation of the high pressure at the reliable time frame untill then lots of chopping and changing,some patience required keeping an open mind advisable.
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40 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Good to see a deep Genoa Low on the GFS, always a good omen for coldies, though it's not in the reliable yet.
Hi Nick,good to see your geography is spot on.
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Morning all,ECM brings a pin ball low pressure to the northwest of Scotland at 216 hrs sliding southeast into the continent allowing bingo at 240 hrs with Greenland high building and low pressure to our southeast dragging in some substantial cold northeasterly flow.Still 10 days away but with ECM ensembles looking good and met office extended forecast following the general wintery theme I will allow myself some excitement but always remembering nothing is guaranteed with the weather.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Nightmare scenario for the met office as this could go right to the wire before being able to pin point exactly where the possible rain snow boundary could be.Twenty four hours might be all they can be sure of in these very tricky meteorological circumstances,a possible major weather event I feel is on its way.