[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

47 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EPS H500 and T850 mean anomaly at day 10 will please coldies

Morning Nick,yes high pressure to the northwest low pressure to the northeast/east a definitely a wintery combination for the UK.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all.Met office extended outlook beginning to upgrade the northern blocking with wintery episodes possible,temperature wise looking at some cold stuff if high pressure orientation draws in a northeasterly from a very cold Norway and Baltic.Gem showing this set up nicely,GFS playing with the exact positioning of the northern blocking.Beginning to look at a long sustained period of cold/verycold weather I expect ECM to follow the theme tonight.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all,hope everybody had a good enjoyable Christmas,now to the serious stuff GFS still pressing on with some exciting wintery weather in that changeable time frame but the foundation is there for northern blocking and with Norway having some sustained very cold temperatures that we could hopefully tap into exciting times ahead I feel fingers crossed of course.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,GEFFS ensembles beginning to head south with a colder theme showing it’s hand,meanwhile MET OFFICE with it’s long range forecast for January smelling an SSW with the likely build of high pressure presumably northern blocking bringing long colder periods.I think January is looking very encouraging for all cold lovers including myself.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,GFS shows a colder outlook after the Christmas period is over looking progressively encouraging for all us cold lovers the white stuff could well start to show it’s hand in the south.Patience is the word with a keen eye on GFS into Fantasy Island.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,nothing to exciting with the charts today as already said mild run up for Christmas except northern parts of Scotland where a white Christmas looks positive certainly on the high peaks.Then I feel after the the big day temperatures coming down to normal for a while with all eyes then on northern blocking,personally I’m feeling positive that GFS 10 day plus will start to show on and off like it all ways does some very interesting charts so keep your eyes peeled not long to wait.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all,a lot seems down on this site this evening but all is not lost ECM at 2016 hrs and 240 hrs showing some northern blocking admittedly just a glimmer at present but still one to watch also Scotland and possibly some parts of the north will see some of the white stuff over Christmas.I am confident that the south of the UK will get some snow before this winter is over so heads up UK weather changes in a blink of an eye .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all,one thing certain a northerly shot will  happen exactly when and how long still up for grabs with ECM GFS UKMO changing as we approach the big day.Probably the best to look at as we approach is the Fax charts with a good bet a white Christmas will happen in the UK where?

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,Lots and Lots of uncertainty for Christmas period with UKMO GEM GFS looking good for the northerly to take place at some time while ECM not interested,going to be great chart watching,my bet a northerly cold shot will take place to time this scenario is to soon yet,another 48 hrs  required at least so enjoy the run up.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all.GFS /GEM giving some hope once again for a cold northerly shot over Christmas and as replied to Nick my bet is there will be a northerly shot when and how long is in the lap of the Gods.ECM tonight will give some inclination on timing perhaps over the Christmas period or just after we wait with bated breath.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

20 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Oh no, 12z GFS leading us up the garden path again? 

Certainly would bring widespread chances for a white Christmas! With the cold hanging on for a few days after too.

High Nick 

chopping and changing GFS but GEM following along,looks to me that a northerly will show it’s hand when and how long is in the lap of the Gods.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,Charts chopping and changing ECM very flat over Christmas period but GFS pushing any northerly back again till just after Christmas.Still time for changes around Christmas time perhaps a chance of the white stuff in normal places ie Scotland chances any where else I’m afraid very low.Still head up lots of winter to go and confidence for a very cold and wintery spell during the new year looks positive in my mind.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all,beginning to look a lot like Christmas?met office adding in their extended that a short cold spell likely with snow in places.Although still a way out to Christmas Day odds are definitely improving who gets the white stuff very much up for grabs so from very mild to wintery in a stroke of a pen great watching .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all,looking at Geffs ensembles the run up run from 21st to Christmas Day could be very interesting need to keep  colder runs going for that week to give some excitement on this site,so all still to play for regarding temperatures with a possible extended northerly blast fingers crossed.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,GFS 06z looking promising all be it in that range of being speculative,still interesting charts for the run up to Christmas which we don’t see often so all cold fans of which is the vast majority on this site possibly a Happy Christmas with the white stuff in some form to wake up to on Christmas morning.Lots to keep us watching the up and coming charts on this great site.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,interesting Geffs ensembles this morning with possible Greenland high around Christmas and a great chance of the white stuff,long way out but at least a hope of a white Christmas.back to the next week or so if the skies stay clear fog and frost for the south could be on the cards.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Morning. Nice to see 00z GFS op in a festive mood with a wintry look to start Christmas Eve.

I suppose, ideally, we see the high building NE from the Azores gain high enough latitude to keep it calm and chilly, with night frosts and develop some surface cold, before the high migrates NW and an upper trough drops SE into Scandinavia and thus opens up the doors to the arctic in time for Xmas.

However, 00z EC continues to show the high not gaining enough latitude so we end up with a mild and possibly cloudy flow off the Atlantic - especially further north, south maybe clearer and frosty.

Morning Nick all credit to GFS for picking up this pressure rise over the UK while Exeter /Glosea was not at all on this wave length.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all, GFS very keen on a long sustained high pressure with a possible 1050mb pressure over the UK chances looking good for some cold temperatures.Met office not keen on high pressure lasting to long in December but as already stated GFS keen from 168 hrs onwards for most of December very interesting has GFS over done this pressure rise or the met office been given the wrong yellow brick road from Glosea computer,we shall of course find out ,all eyes to tonight’s ECM.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,sorry pressed wrong button ,well just to return to the up and coming high pressure and it’s possible position and orientation as Nick just mentioned the Azores high looks likely to ridge over the UK which could depending on it’s orientation give milder temperatures to the North while the south could be in a Faux situation keeping lower temperatures,all very speculative at present.The good thing with a pressure rise over the UK at this time of the year is the possibility of seasonal weather can develop quickly all be it dry and white.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all, GFS GEM looking keen to bring a pressure rise from the Atlantic along with the chance of dry weather with frost etc that goes with high pressure hopefully with out cloud cover.looks to kick of around the 13 th December temperature wise once again will depend on position and orientation,hopefully a positive sign for more seasonal weather.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all, GFS GEM looking keen to bring a pressure rise from the Atlantic along with the chance of dry weather with frost etc that goes with high pressure hopefully with out cloud cover.looks to kick of around the 13 th December temperature wise once again will depend on position and orientation,hopefully a positive sign for more seasonal weather.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Morning all,All charts going for a very active Atlantic flow with relatively mild west/southwesterly flow,possible change 8 to 9 days out with glimpses of high pressure on both ECM and GFS looking at Geffs ensembles more likely average temperatures from around 13 December onwards but still a chance for a change back to a more wintery set up for Christmas.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all,the saga rumbles on when will the less cold Atlantic take over the UK from the very cold continental air.Answer not out to 168 hrs according to UKMO mean time some frost snow freezing rain you name it we will be getting some of that along with some normal rain what more say fantastic.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening all,The ECM very interesting tonight looking at the 168 hrs the low pressure that sits west/northwest from Scotland sinks south to land up at the southwest approaches at 216 hrs finally shows up south east of Uk dragging in those east/northeast winds at 240 hrs.To me a definite thumps up to that very cold north east block intensification,very  intriguing stuff happening.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Evening al,most charts ie UKMO/ICON and to some extent GFS going for the Atlantic advance at 144hrs this coming breakdown still looks very interesting to me,as MattH said erratic breakdown likely before the less cold air reach all parts of UK.Still single figure temperatures could remain in a large part of the UK for some time even with the Atlantic influence.Not going to speculate further regarding future cold until I see this very cold air anchored to our north east displaced if at all.