[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Morning all,GFS showing cold incursion at 192hrs what happens from then is very much up for debate lots of ways this could go but I still believe the met office extended forecast that has a northerly with wintery period has a lot of credibility,of course the proof is in the pudding.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all, ECM showing some better hope of colder weather in a better time frame than it’s competitors still uncertainties on how this well advertised colder period will establish itself but I feel some better idea will show up in next 24/48 hrs patience is the word it will happen.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,GFS 6z bringing the colder period into the 9/10 day  still lots to get resolved but promising is the word High pressure to the northwest looks the form horse at present along with a very cold northerly as the the met office extended hinted who has gone  from easterly/northeasterly to northerly all a good direction in my eyes for cold lovers with a chance of the white stuff.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,GFS at last brings in the Greenland block which we have all been waiting for still in fantasy island but a start let’s hope the theme continues,will need to study the ensembles to see if the operational has not gone on walk about.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Evening all,ECM giving a starter for ten on their 12z not perfect but In my opinion heading towards a colder outlook let’s hope for a continuation along with a pressure rise further north.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Morning all,GFS starting to show a possible colder period from around the 3rd February early days yet but need to keep an eye on the ensembles will be interesting to see the 6z operational and control to see where they fit against the mean.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Morning all,very interesting read with met office extended forecast,colder weather more likely mid February with snow and ice on the agenda also a Northerly has been added to the easterly.Glosea still showing this cold spell in February which to be fair has not altered except time,hope they have got this correct come on Exeter and Glosea.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Evening all,a stormy unsettled week coming up feeling mild after a very cold period then all eyes on high pressure and position along with orientation.ECM 240 hrs looks promising but at that range will change of course but Scandinavian high still on the cards so good watching to see if February could turn into a cold month as met office has frequently pointed in that direction with an easterly feed.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Morning all,The break down to the Atlantic looks short and stormy with possible damaging winds,after then high pressure takes over how it evolves and positioning still up for grabs but a continental air feed looks the form horse 850 hpa aloft will chop and change but if an east /northeast air stream gets established cold /verycold February could be on the cards also Geffs ensembles operational wants to keep heading south albeit not the average mean.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Evening all,The Atlantic surge might well be short lived charts beginning to firm up on high pressure within a week or so time frame in regards to positioning all fingers crossed for a east/northeast feed eventually.The important fact cutting of the Atlantic train gives hope in getting a cold feed to establish over the UK.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

The way the polar vortex is with all the uncertainty I’m not sure the chart’s even in the short/medium have got this nailed on surprises could be on the agenda.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Morning all,GEM shows how quickly a Scandinavian high pressure can show itself now that a pressure rise looks favourable around the last week of January along with all the uncertainty involved with the polar vortex could get a sudden return to very cold scenario.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Evening all,did not have to wait long for northern blocking to show it’s hand with Marco Patanga stating that Easterly QBO looks to have occurred all pointing to another round of very cold temperatures with a -NAO all due to SSW reoccurring all possible to begin before the end of the month.Fingers crossed of course 

[Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks]

Evening all,very encouraging news from Marco Patanga with QBO easterly looking a good bet while encouraging northern blocking and -NAO could well be a short milder interlude before things start to look very positive regarding another round of very cold temperatures get established by the end of the month.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Morning all,GFS/ECM already showing high pressure developments could well start the beginning of are next cold spell at the end of the month,Lots happening with SSW about to kick in great watch again for a possible better part 2 of winter.

[Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks]

Evening all,could be a very significant 24 hrs if reversal takes place weather wise,northern blocking could make the next possible cold spell very interesting.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Afternoon all,great write up from Matt H all models showing this very cold blast with still a possibility of snow in the south that has lingered on and off for a while. Then what looks like a milder spell that may well be short lived,with northern blocking perhaps showing up in the charts not so far away.The impact  of the blocking being assisted by the SSW.

[Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks]

Marco patanga on twitter just stated major SSW on knife edge,could get very interesting in the next few weeks possible short mild interlude for UK  before northern blocking shows its hand.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Evening all,looking at all model’s uncertainty remains the form horse regarding the track of this Atlantic low and the possibility of wide spread snow to England.Will it or won’t it any body’s guess at the moment safe to keep eyes peeled to the Fax chart’s although even they can alternate,so sit back and just enjoy won hell of a week of weather.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Morning all,long time since I have seen so much uncertainty with ECM and weather forecasting in general,lots of egg on faces this morning with meteorological forecasting.Got to be very difficult with the polar vortex being hammered but with all the modern technology we have I think we should do better.Back to ECM GFS looks like a very cold week coming up,in regards to snow well that’s in the hand of the lap of the Gods.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Evening all,Great run up to this possible snow event my favourite is the German model Icon first low heading into France with northeasterly winds driving the snow around while GFS not that much different then reluctant to bring much milder air in to the mix.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z UKMO 'current laying snow' chart animated through next week until Thursday suggests northern areas look to see greatest chance of laying snow, probably from that low that forms near Iceland and drops SE and also from showers, but also a chance in the southeast as one or two lows track east close to the south.

Although it's too far off to forecast snow for now, seems a reasonable assumption, for now, to think Scotland, N England and N Ireland stand to see greatest chance of snow, lower chances further south, unless the Atlantic lows track further north, but the low from the southwest more likely ending up further south into France.

Hi Nick,yes it looks like the Atlantic lows are going to head into France keeping the south mostly dry and cold.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Morning all,Lots of uncertainty and various scenarios this morning ECM the the pick of the bunch for the extended cold,but reliability past 96hrs/120 hrs looking the form horse due to polar vortex being hammered.Interesting times ahead but as I have said before most of the UK will see snow within nine or ten days.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Evening all,UKMO and ICON keep low pressure disturbances to the south of the UK while American models keen on having an influence with a mixture in the south of rain/snow depending on where you live.All models still struggling with the pattern change lots going on SSW helping to complicate things,personally I’m sure most parts of the UK will see snow with in the next 10 days along with  distribution.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Morning all,charts will chop and change even up to 24hrs before nailing the exact track of low pressure,this morning the charts ECM UKMO going for the colder prolonged theme in my opinion with some disruption due to snow and freezing conditions.Met office extended forecast will be interesting today see if any milder interlude for next week is forecast.