DavidS
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Posts posted by DavidS
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Arrived in Soelden on Sunday and there had been fresh snow above 1500m, with about 15cm above 2000m. This made for really good skiing today. It is currently snowing now at resort level (approx 1300m), So hopefully we will wake up to a fresh covering tomorrow.
This is my first time to the area and I must say the Oetz valley is spectacular.
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carinthian yes for the Alps, the hope of a couple days ago would be lower pressure would push east or south east from the UK and at least bring down the 850s next week, but that scenario seems to have gone from the models.
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12z ICON is not quite as good as the 00z but at least some consistency.
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I’m quite liking the ICON at 180 this morning. It maintains a wedge of heights to the NNW and we go colder. Looks a bit on its own at that time frame though
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A switch to a more mobile and milder pattern is still there for all to see on the output this morning, but perhaps less of the exceptional mild than has been on offer for the last few days.
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Having the low track as far north as shown on the ECM 12z op is within the envelope of possibilities, but probably not the likeliest solution. I would imagine something quite a bit south would be more likely, in fact i would be less surprised if the eventual outcome was it went too far south. But that of course is to be determined and many more options will be shown by the ops in the next few days.
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The ECM isn’t an outlier within its ensembles and tracks the mean out to around the 12th/13th Jan, however at that point it does start to drag its heels. Plenty of scatter on the ensembles from day 8 with a good cluster, including the control keeping things cold. Much still to be resolved.
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I really love this chart
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10 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:
i wouldn't think it's either, it's just the core is v cold over that region at the moment -75/80 so it makes sense
Correct, the colder temps at 10hPa are currently displaced from the typical home.
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Sobering viewing from the 00z suites, as often seems to be the case. It’s not the first time, and probably not the last that I find myself looking at the eastern seaboard of North America, to see if a pesky low can stay detached long enough to allow pressure to orientate favourably for us in the UK. Oh well, no doubt the outlook will change again later.
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2 hours ago, Andy8472 said:
First warm pulse at the end of the 06z op, now more in line with the mean, eventually normally makes it's way into the pole area
Good to see. There are some -12s on that chart, which is toasty. Hopefully we see some consistency in the output and it starts to come into the reliable. End of December is a good time to have a warming.
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40 minutes ago, carinthian said:
This picture taken in 1989. Defo not me on that drop. Anyone guess where it was taken ?
C
Corbets Couloir - Jackson Hole
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Icon 12z keeping things generally unsettled in the next week.
Is it though looking to build an Atlantic ridge from T+168 or would it likely flatten?
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41 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Must be the nearest thing to paradise gliding through virgin snow with no one else in sight ! Where are you going to in Feb ?
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Normally Obrertauern, but this year we have a change is scenery and are going to Solden.
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10 hours ago, carinthian said:
First run of the season yesterday after a pole.. Lifts open in Zauchensee on Friday. Looking good.
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Beautiful tracks Carinthian. Hope the stellar conditions hold until February.
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Why do the 00z suites seemingly have this desire to dissolve the cold?
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Latest ECMWF anomaly charts at 10hPa, show a strong warm anomaly for Weeks 2 & 3. Week 1 (first image) is for week commencing 27th Nov.
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6 hours ago, bluearmy said:
Slp, not heights (pedantically speaking)
Noted
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25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Dec
jan
feb
Looks pretty good to me, with lower heights to the east / south-east for Jan/Feb.
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8 minutes ago, DavidS said:
This is brilliant. Being a relative newcomer to the weather models (c. 5 years), I had often seen the term ‘Bartlett High’ used. I understood what it was describing quite quickly, but only more recently gleaned a vague understanding of why the term was used. However reading this, it is fascinating to realise the term came about due to discussions not dissimilar to those I follow everyday here. Thanks for posting
Just be clear, I am in no way condoning the appearance of a ‘Bartlett High’.
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18 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Due to the wonders of AI I was able to find the google thread from the extraordinary winter of 1998 when Paul Bartlett came into the meteorological lexicon with his, as you will see a poster call it "Bartlett High" Well worth a scan, believe it or not that's over a quarter of century ago. They even muse over whether it will be coined. Plus the style of internet posting and quality was of course entirely different then, oh how times have changed.
https://groups.google.com/g/uk.sci.weather/c/OWaVXlmYlis/m/cskUin3H5kAJ
This is brilliant. Being a relative newcomer to the weather models (c. 5 years), I had often seen the term ‘Bartlett High’ used. I understood what it was describing quite quickly, but only more recently gleaned a vague understanding of why the term was used. However reading this, it is fascinating to realise the term came about due to discussions not dissimilar to those I follow everyday here. Thanks for posting
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Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It looks like the end of this week and the weekend could bring some much needed more widespread snow to the Alps and the Pyrenees, with temperatures continuing to decrease to something more appropriate for the time of year.
We are back from our week in Sölden, and while Thursday and Friday last week were a tad warm, we did enjoy some excellent skiing. Luckily most of the skiing is above 2000m and we even had about 15cm of fresh powder overnight on Monday last week, so the conditions on Tuesday were really good. Although the valley runs were best avoided.
This was my first to Sölden and I really enjoyed it. I would definitely come again and also recommend to anyone, however if I do go back I would like to go at a quieter time of year.