qwertyK
-
Posts
461 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by qwertyK
-
-
@Dark Horse I've just seen that, a similar thing happened in Scotland end of December 2021 I think? It was like 18.7 at like 4am in the morning and no one noticed it
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
That Jan 96 one was incredible. Had I been as interested then as I am now, am not sure how I would have coped!!! Didn't we have a week last winter where it stayed on ground? Thinking December??
December 2022, yeah. Not sure if it was as much snow as in December 2017 but I recall it being very similar. Happened quite suddenly. Got down to well below freezing in the nights.
-
55 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
I had a bbq in November, enough said lol
1 hour ago, SummerShower said:I think the trend overall is for milder winters. I do think though this is primarily because we get more 'silly' mild spells nowadays, where the CET is at 9 or 10C+ for days on end. When the pattern gets in the right place we still get the very low temperatures. Think about December 2022, when the CET was just above freezing for the first 17 days, but then there was a lot of this 'silly' mild weather in the 2nd half. Had it just been 'normal' mild, say 5 to 8C days, we could have come off with a notably cold month. It's these very mild spells that mean we don't get remarkably cold CET months anymore which in turn add up to milder winters. Other months this has been notable are February 2021, which included the lowest February temperature since 1955 but had a silly mild 2nd half. January 23 to some degree had silly mild to start, then a cold 2nd half. Both months had 5.something CETs I.e. unremarkable, despite some good cold weather in them.
I do find that when the Atlantic is in charge (which yes, that is the default UK winter pattern), we tend to have more south-westerlies thanks to the Azores high being more prevalent. What I feel is missing from our winters now are spells of colder zonality, which help to keep temperatures down somewhat, when the Atlantic is in charge. I feel this is the reason our winters are milder, rather than becuase our cold spells becoming less intense (which they aren't). So the warming world is causing a pattern change to some degree here.
So, overall yes winters are milder now, and the above is the reason for it I believe.
It's odd because the first half of autumn was ridiculously mild, which usually makes for mild winters, plus el nino, but like its getting down to lows of -4C and -5C overnight in quite wide parts of the south of england. I remmeber say winter 2020 i don't think the minima in essex got below 6C.
-
4 minutes ago, sundog said:
100% getting milder. How anyone could think they are getting colder is either dillusional or in denial.
I'm saying within the context of say the last ten years. 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2020 were all pretty mild winters from what I recall
-
7 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
It's far too early in the decade to determine but I would say probably no. Depends on the month though. February is rapidly warming and many in recent years have been warmer than a normal March. January on the other hand has been mostly unexceptional in recent years with no close shots at a record warm January, most just being in the normal range.
Maybe the title is misleading, as there is a wider european context - some periods of exceptional cold (and warmth) in european winters, like in Spain in 2021, and I think Moscow this year had its snowiest winter, near record cold in Scandinavia as well. That said i do remember last year how ridiculously warm places as far north as poland got in january, like 20c and 27C in the north of spain
-
It seems like probably since 2020 that although summer tempreatures are getting hotter, winter feels a lot colder. Probably because we've had some mild winters and very mild winter days, like in 2019 when we had a 21C day in February. But I think about the last few years. The winter of 2021 had a fair bit of snow where I am in the south anyway. The following December in 2022 we had really heavy snowfall and lows of like -6C in my area (essex). March 2023 we had some very late snow. This November I was in Southampton and it snowed and didn't get above zero one day. Then it snowed a few days ago, didn't settle but we've had some very low tempreatures being forecast, again, I speak for the southeast. I know it's nothing compared to say 1963 or other years but it seems like there is a trend towards colder maxima in winter, like I can't remember the last time before 2021 where I live where 2C or 4C was the max forecast for some days unless say, 2018 or 2017. Again not much snow but some very cold temps. I think the current cold weather is quite interesting considering it should be pretty mild given El Nino etc. Feels like summers are getting hotter, and winters are getting colder.
-
Not so bad here in S.Essex. 35-36C, even went for a quick run. Highly doubt anywhere today has hit 40C, maybe tommorow though.
-
I haven't paid that much attention to the graphs but if the peak will be Monday/Tuesday that is still a week away, and so I am still very cautious about believing anything exceptional will happen.
It wasn't forecast to rain for weeks yet we have had a few downpours here in south Essex.
2-3 days ago, Sunday here was being forecast for 36C.
It's now being forecast as...28C.
-
1
-
-
A little bit of much needed rain here
-
6 hours ago, Djdazzle said:
Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.
The weather forecast always had it down as cloudy for where I was.
-
1
-
-
Weather for me now gone down to just 29c on Sunday , down from like 35 a couple days ago. Monday 33, Tuesday 32c and then back down again
Just now, NTC said:Well firstly the super powerful computers said Thursday 14 July and that was wrong, the image you quoted says 42c which is now supposedly wrong. So the big deal is no one can rely on computer models when they have the wrong dates and the wrong temperatures and too much emphasis is put on every model that is released.
Is the 52c in South of France still predicted sometimes its a case of boy crying wolf when almost everyday for 2 weeks 40c plus has been on a computer model and people scream and shout like its a full gone conclusion.
What model was predicting 49c for Brittany and the north coast of france ?
-
1
-
-
Just now, Alderc said:
No he’s right. Just likes everyone bunks of work with snow you can’t let everyone stop working because it’s hot.
Oh yeah sure but hot countries have things like ac. We don't. Though I don't get why things like train tracks go in our heat but seem to be fine in other countries
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, legion_quest said:
It's a shame the charts aren't moving the heat along abit further, if they could get the heat delayed to Wednesday, that's the last day of term in a lot of places, so most schools would likely just close a day early.
With it being earlier in the week, I suspect a lot of schools will push to stay open to avoid complaints from people like Sir John, who sounds like a right charmer.
Instead, it seems the heat in the charts is going to break down quite rapidly, just in time for the end of school. Unless I'm reading that entirely wrongly?
Sir John sounds like some of the people here in the past few days wanting the charts to reach even higher temperatures.
-
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:
Brentwoods one of those funny places whenever I drive there my car temp drops by 2c compared to say thames side Thurrock and here in NW Kent whenever u get wet snow there in winter we get sleet or rain your more rural and elevated. Nice place but I find it very "Towie" Never seen so many people touching their hair on the same visit
Most likely because it's on a hill and you clearly haven't been in years lol towie isn't even a thing round here. I'm not actually in Brentwood I'm in the town next door, Shenfield, it's usually a degree warmer here despite barely being a mile away. Think having the worst air quality in Essex after Thurrock has something to do with it
-
2
-
-
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Who said it'd be the hottest day of the year? Forecast max in the UK today was around 32c, which seems about right given the temps so far. Not the hottest day of the year.
Met office saying today could be the hottest day of the year.
-
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:
I think the Leconfield site is still playing silly buggers. It's been wrong loads of times recently and over-reading. I would imagine the cluster at 29c is probably the true UK max at the moment.
In south essex right now and max today is forecast as 29C. Hottest day of the year my ass
-
BBC forecast for me has gone from 35C on Sunday to 33C. I'm in southern Essex, so right in the firing line for the heatwave. More places talking about 40C being reached but they're over a day late. If the GFS continues how it has been it's less and less likely we'll break the temp record never mind get to 40C.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
That’s a newspaper report, not a computer model.
It uses a computer model from The Weather Outlook
-
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Best not to use media articles (apart from met office and bbc) for evidence !
It uses Theweatheroutlook though which is semi reputable.
-
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:
I don’t recall any predictions of 37-38’C for tomorrow. Certainly not consistent and persistent cross model ensemble support of such heat, anyway.
Not even 37-38C. Tommorow it was supposed to be 41C.
Britain to swelter in temperatures of up to 41C in record heatwave - Wales Online
WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UKPrediction models suggest next Monday (July 11) could see be an 'historic moment' with record temperatures for most of the country, peaking in the south-east of EnglandIn fact, these articles about 40C weather seem to go right back to the start of July.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Unfortunately I think your right! Unless metoffice put out a close school advisory like when that storm hit earlier in the year.
I would hope common sense would prevail and given its so close to the holidays and Year 11s and Year 13s are already out most will just send home. Or kids won't just show up.
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
Best to look at ones with a manual input like the met office video forecasts. Anything on an app or website is generated from raw model data without human input.
Noted
-
3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
I should hope so! If a week on Monday ends up being in the high 30s, low 40s (which means the former for Sheffield) I'd be recommending it to my school straight away.
And people who work outside too. No one will want to work
-
1
-
-
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:
That was 2019 and a few places did get above 20C.
No I remember it was 2020. I made a thread about it
UK winters: are they getting colder?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by qwertyK
@In Absence of True Seasons
It may seem odd, but this is a natural phenonemon due to the Foehn effect. A lot of these ridiculously unseasonable events happen in Scotland. Like I said in december 2019 it reached 18.7c at like 4am in the morning.
It had reached similar tempreatures in december in scotland in 1948.
Whilst in Jan 2020 it reached 19C in Norway.
It got very warm in scotland and northern ireland in like November 2022
We don't know how unusual these events are, a lot of these places wouldn't have had weather stations historically and so few people live in them it's near impossible to actually confirm. Google forecasted 12C for that Scottish village today.
Incidentally, the CET for this month so far is only 0.48C degrees above average.
Seems more crazy that last January it was getting up to 20C in much of central/Eastern Europe.
I went to Belgrade the other week, first day I got there it was 17C, next day it was 2C and heavy snow.